FNCE30011
Jun 8, 2026
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- 当然可以,我直接按你这份当前文件来救你。
- 先说结论:这门 FNCE30011 不是“背公式”的课,而是“选模型 + 配现金流和折现率 + 做完整桥接”的课。 期末 65%,而且公式表考试里直接给你,所以真正拉开分数的是:
- 你能不能看题干后马上点出该用哪个模型
- 你能不能把现金流和折现率正确配对
- 你能不能最后从 EV 桥接到股权价值/每股价值[1]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe 65% final is the whole game, and the formula sheet is printed inside it. Students who revise by memorising formulas waste effort the exam already gives away - and still drop marks because they picked the wrong WACC model for the leverage story, or fumbled the EV-equity bridge. Spend your revision on model selection and clean step templates. Treat the 20% group assignment as exam practice with a longer deadline: building the model is learning the exam. 65% 的期末就是整盘棋,而公式表就印在它里面。靠背公式来复习的学生白费了考试已经送出的力气 -- 而且仍然丢分, 因为他们为那个杠杆故事选错了WACC 模型,或在 EV→股权桥接上失手。把你的复习花在模型选择和干净的步骤模板 上。把那个20% 的小组作业当作一个截止日期更长的考试练习:搭建那个模型本身就是在学考试。 i How this book was built - and the two-layer rule 这本书是如何搭建的 -- 以及双层规则 The standard valuation canon - FCFF/FCFE, the WACC family, CAPM beta levering, terminal values, multiples, no- arbitrage replication - is universal method and is stated openly (a present value is a fact; an identity is an identity), following the standard references (Berk & DeMarzo; Koller-Goedhart-Wessels; Damodaran). The coordinator's own past-exam stems and case figures are paraphrased and re-numbered - every worked example here uses our own invented firm and round numbers. Book status: bring-in one double-sided A4 of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (the FX-8200 is banned), with a course formula sheet provided; it is neither closed-book nor open-book. Always verify weights, dates and exam conditions on your own LMS/Canvas. 标准估值典籍 -- FCFF/FCFE、WACC 家族、CAPM beta 加杠杆、terminal value、倍数、无套利复制 -- 是普适的 方法,且被公开陈述(一个现值是一个事实;一个恒等式就是一个恒等式),遵循标准参考文献(Berk & DeMarzo;Koller- Goedhart-Wessels;Damodaran)。课程协调员自己的历年考试题干与案例数字经过转述与重新编号 -- 这里每一个例 题都用我们自己虚构的公司和整数。书本状态:带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记+一台不可编程的 Casio FX82(FX-8200 被禁),并有一份提供的课程公式表;它既非闭卷也非开卷。永远在你自己的 LMS/Canvas 上核实权重、日期与考试条件。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual THE BLUEPRINT THE EXAM BLUEPRINT FINAL 65% . BRING-IN A4 + PROVIDED SHEET 65% final - bring-in A4, formula sheet provided 65% 期末––可带入 A4,提供公式表 Take-home exam 15% . Group assignment 20% . Final exam 65% Take-home 考试 15% · 小组作业 20% · 期末考试 65% TL;DR. Your mark is three pieces and one dominates: a 65% invigilated final, 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet as short-answer concepts and calculations - no algebraic derivations. It is neither closed nor open: you carry in one double-sided A4 of your own notes and a Casio FX82, and the paper prints the formula sheet for you. So the make-or-break skill is choosing the right model, not recalling a formula. Coordinator: Prof John Handley. TL;DR。你的分数由三部分组成,其中一项占主导:一场65% 的监考期末,180 分钟+15 分钟阅读时间,写在答题册上,形式为简 答概念题与计算题 -- 没有代数推导。它既非闭卷也非开卷:你带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记和一台 Casio FX82,而试卷会替 你印好公式表。所以决定成败的技能是选对模型,而不是回忆公式。课程协调员:Prof John Handley。 65% FINAL EXAM (INVIGILATED) final exam(监考) 180+15m WRITING + READING TIME 笔试 + 阅读时间 1 DOUBLE-SIDED A4 ALLOWED 允许双面 A4 ✓ FORMULA SHEET PROVIDED 提供 formula sheet AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual The three assessment pieces 三项评估组成 Component Weight When / detail Final examination - invigilated, individual, short-answer concepts & calculations 65% Exam period (180m + 15m) Group assignment (groups of 1- 20% Feedback = end of sem[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[4]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf一本书,三个时刻 LEARN the method - BUILD the model- walk the exam answer shape LEARN 方法 → BUILD 模型 → 走一遍考试答题形态 TL;DR. This is not a transcript of the seminars or a re-run of the workshop spreadsheets. It is a self- contained course in the valuation reasoning FNCE30011 examines - each idea stated plainly, each method shown on a fully-worked example with our own round numbers, each classic trap flagged. Because the exam hands you the formula sheet, these pages drill the thing it cannot give you: read the setup, name the right model, build the cash flows, bridge to equity. TL;DR。这不是研讨课的逐字记录,也不是工作坊电子表格的重跑。它是一门自成体系的课程,讲授 FNCE30011 所考的估值推 理 -- 每个理念都讲得明明白白,每种方法都在一个用我们自己的整数完整算过的例子上展示,每个经典陷阱都被标出。因为考 试会把公式表交给你,这些页面操练的是它无法给你的东西:读懂设置、点出正确的模型、搭建现金流、桥接到股权。 A 1 . LEARN the method 1 · LEARN 方法 You haven't done the topic yet. Read a chapter top to bottom. Every idea opens with a one-line TL;DR, then heading - diagram/formula - explainer - worked example - trap - recap. The diagrams are original schematics of the standard valuation canon - learn the DCF picture and the WACC fork cold. 你还没学过这个主题。把一章从 头读到尾。每个理念都以一行 TL;DR 开头,然后是标题 → 图 示/公式→讲解→ 例题 → 陷 阱→回顾。图示是标准估值典 籍的原创示意图 -- 把 DCF 那 张图和WACC分叉学到烂熟。 B 2 . BUILD the model 2 · BUILD 模型 You've seen the seminar and a workshop. Cover the worked steps and re-build each by hand on a Casio FX82 - forecast the unlevered FCF, choose the WACC model, discount, add the terminal value, run the EV-equity bridge. The 20% group assignment is this book applied to a real firm; the exam is the same engine on fresh numbers. 你看过研讨课和一节工作坊了。 盖住已算的步骤,用 Casio FX82 逐一手工重建 -- 预测无杠杆 FCF、选择 WACC 模型、折 现、加上 terminal value、跑 EV→股权桥接。那个20% 的小 组作业就是把这本书应用到一家 真实公司上;考试则是同一台引擎 在新数字上的运行。 C 3 . APPLY 3 · APPLY 应用 It's revision / SWOT week. The TL;DRs, the trap boxes and the recurring model-selector - DCF + equity pattern are your map. Distil them onto your one A4: a model-selector decision tree, the four cash-flow / discount-rate matching pairs, and your worked- step templates - not a wall of formulas (those are provided). 现在是复习/SWOT周。那些 TL;DR、陷阱框,以及反复出现的 模型选择器→ DCF→ 股权模式 就是你的地图。把它们提炼到你 的那一张 A4 上:一棵模型选择器 决策树、四对现金流 / 折现率匹 配组合,以及你的分步模板 -- 而 不是一墙公式(那些是提供的)。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual i The single engine that runs the whole subject 贯穿整门课的那个单一引擎 Master one calculation and the subject collapses into a pattern. Every task - an enterprise DCF, a WACC build, a multiple, a hybrid by replication - orbits the same engine: estimate the free cash flow to all investors, discount it at the cost of capital, add a terminal value, then bridge enterprise value to equity and divide by shares. Wrapped around it is one front-door question - which WACC model does the leverage story imply? - and one answer shape the markers reward beat by beat. Internalise both and fresh exam numbers cannot surprise you. - 掌握一个计算,这门课就坍缩成一个模式。每一项任务 -- 一个企业 DCF、一次 WACC 搭建、一个倍数、一个用复制法 处理的混合工具 -- 都绕着同一台引擎转:估计流向所有投资者的自由现金流、用资本成本折现它、加上一个 terminal value,然后把企业价值桥接到股权并除以股数。包裹在它外面的是一个前门问题 -- 杠杆故事意味着哪个 WACC 模型? -以及一种打分人会逐拍奖励的答案形态。把两者内化,新的考试数字就吓不到你。 THE SPINE EV = T ∑ t=1 FCFU (1 + ks)* + TVT (1 + ks)T ⟶ Equity = EV - net debt ⟶ Equity shares ! The most important strategic fact about FNCE30011 关于 FNCE30011 最重要的策略性事实[14]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf3; build/apply a valuation) Individual take-home exam (online, individual) 15% Mid-semester ★ The exam format - model selection, NOT formula recall 考试形式 -- 模型选择,而非公式默写 One invigilated written paper, and the formula sheet is printed inside it. You will not earn marks for reproducing ks or the CAPM - they are given. You will be handed a firm sketch, forecasts, leverage information and cost-of-capital inputs and asked to name the right model, build the cash flows, discount, and bridge to a per-share value - plus short concept items (why enterprise DCF; Standard vs Vanilla vs Recursive WACC; the interest-tax-shield risk switch; why a multiple must be like-with-like). Questions are short-answer with no algebraic derivations. Walk a full valuation on a fresh firm and you have walked the exam. 一场监考的书面试卷,而公式表就印在它里面。你不会 因复述 或 CAPM 而得分 -- 它们是给定的。你会拿到 一份公司速写、各种预测、杠杆信息和资本成本输入, 并被要求点出正确的模型、搭建现金流、折现,并桥接 到一个每股价值- -外加一些简短的概念项(为什么用 TEIL DCF;Standard vs Vanilla vs Recursive WACC; 利息税盾风险开关;为什么一个倍数必须同类与同类)。 题目是简答型,没有代数推导。在一家新公司上走完一 次完整估值,你就走完了考试。 FIG 0. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ Changing L or operating risk k_u D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_tor k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T] k_w = (1-L]k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF"U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s,t) Mies-Ezzel K_V= K_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its . k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its . k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula
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一、先把这门课“看透”:它到底在考什么
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这门课的总引擎其实就一句话:
- 先估未来现金流
- 再用匹配风险的折现率折现
- 再加 terminal value
- 最后从 enterprise value(EV)桥接到 equity value,再除以股数得到每股价值[4]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf一本书,三个时刻 LEARN the method - BUILD the model- walk the exam answer shape LEARN 方法 → BUILD 模型 → 走一遍考试答题形态 TL;DR. This is not a transcript of the seminars or a re-run of the workshop spreadsheets. It is a self- contained course in the valuation reasoning FNCE30011 examines - each idea stated plainly, each method shown on a fully-worked example with our own round numbers, each classic trap flagged. Because the exam hands you the formula sheet, these pages drill the thing it cannot give you: read the setup, name the right model, build the cash flows, bridge to equity. TL;DR。这不是研讨课的逐字记录,也不是工作坊电子表格的重跑。它是一门自成体系的课程,讲授 FNCE30011 所考的估值推 理 -- 每个理念都讲得明明白白,每种方法都在一个用我们自己的整数完整算过的例子上展示,每个经典陷阱都被标出。因为考 试会把公式表交给你,这些页面操练的是它无法给你的东西:读懂设置、点出正确的模型、搭建现金流、桥接到股权。 A 1 . LEARN the method 1 · LEARN 方法 You haven't done the topic yet. Read a chapter top to bottom. Every idea opens with a one-line TL;DR, then heading - diagram/formula - explainer - worked example - trap - recap. The diagrams are original schematics of the standard valuation canon - learn the DCF picture and the WACC fork cold. 你还没学过这个主题。把一章从 头读到尾。每个理念都以一行 TL;DR 开头,然后是标题 → 图 示/公式→讲解→ 例题 → 陷 阱→回顾。图示是标准估值典 籍的原创示意图 -- 把 DCF 那 张图和WACC分叉学到烂熟。 B 2 . BUILD the model 2 · BUILD 模型 You've seen the seminar and a workshop. Cover the worked steps and re-build each by hand on a Casio FX82 - forecast the unlevered FCF, choose the WACC model, discount, add the terminal value, run the EV-equity bridge. The 20% group assignment is this book applied to a real firm; the exam is the same engine on fresh numbers. 你看过研讨课和一节工作坊了。 盖住已算的步骤,用 Casio FX82 逐一手工重建 -- 预测无杠杆 FCF、选择 WACC 模型、折 现、加上 terminal value、跑 EV→股权桥接。那个20% 的小 组作业就是把这本书应用到一家 真实公司上;考试则是同一台引擎 在新数字上的运行。 C 3 . APPLY 3 · APPLY 应用 It's revision / SWOT week. The TL;DRs, the trap boxes and the recurring model-selector - DCF + equity pattern are your map. Distil them onto your one A4: a model-selector decision tree, the four cash-flow / discount-rate matching pairs, and your worked- step templates - not a wall of formulas (those are provided). 现在是复习/SWOT周。那些 TL;DR、陷阱框,以及反复出现的 模型选择器→ DCF→ 股权模式 就是你的地图。把它们提炼到你 的那一张 A4 上:一棵模型选择器 决策树、四对现金流 / 折现率匹 配组合,以及你的分步模板 -- 而 不是一墙公式(那些是提供的)。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual i The single engine that runs the whole subject 贯穿整门课的那个单一引擎 Master one calculation and the subject collapses into a pattern. Every task - an enterprise DCF, a WACC build, a multiple, a hybrid by replication - orbits the same engine: estimate the free cash flow to all investors, discount it at the cost of capital, add a terminal value, then bridge enterprise value to equity and divide by shares. Wrapped around it is one front-door question - which WACC model does the leverage story imply? - and one answer shape the markers reward beat by beat. Internalise both and fresh exam numbers cannot surprise you. - 掌握一个计算,这门课就坍缩成一个模式。每一项任务 -- 一个企业 DCF、一次 WACC 搭建、一个倍数、一个用复制法 处理的混合工具 -- 都绕着同一台引擎转:估计流向所有投资者的自由现金流、用资本成本折现它、加上一个 terminal value,然后把企业价值桥接到股权并除以股数。包裹在它外面的是一个前门问题 -- 杠杆故事意味着哪个 WACC 模型? -以及一种打分人会逐拍奖励的答案形态。把两者内化,新的考试数字就吓不到你。 THE SPINE EV = T ∑ t=1 FCFU (1 + ks)* + TVT (1 + ks)T ⟶ Equity = EV - net debt ⟶ Equity shares ! The most important strategic fact about FNCE30011 关于 FNCE30011 最重要的策略性事实[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制
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这门课反复考的是同一个“流水线”:
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考试形式你一定要知道:
- Final 占 65%
- 180 分钟 + 15 分钟阅读
- 题型是 简答概念 + 计算
- 不考代数推导
- 可以带 1 张双面 A4
- 可用 Casio FX82
- 公式表试卷里会提供[1]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe 65% final is the whole game, and the formula sheet is printed inside it. Students who revise by memorising formulas waste effort the exam already gives away - and still drop marks because they picked the wrong WACC model for the leverage story, or fumbled the EV-equity bridge. Spend your revision on model selection and clean step templates. Treat the 20% group assignment as exam practice with a longer deadline: building the model is learning the exam. 65% 的期末就是整盘棋,而公式表就印在它里面。靠背公式来复习的学生白费了考试已经送出的力气 -- 而且仍然丢分, 因为他们为那个杠杆故事选错了WACC 模型,或在 EV→股权桥接上失手。把你的复习花在模型选择和干净的步骤模板 上。把那个20% 的小组作业当作一个截止日期更长的考试练习:搭建那个模型本身就是在学考试。 i How this book was built - and the two-layer rule 这本书是如何搭建的 -- 以及双层规则 The standard valuation canon - FCFF/FCFE, the WACC family, CAPM beta levering, terminal values, multiples, no- arbitrage replication - is universal method and is stated openly (a present value is a fact; an identity is an identity), following the standard references (Berk & DeMarzo; Koller-Goedhart-Wessels; Damodaran). The coordinator's own past-exam stems and case figures are paraphrased and re-numbered - every worked example here uses our own invented firm and round numbers. Book status: bring-in one double-sided A4 of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (the FX-8200 is banned), with a course formula sheet provided; it is neither closed-book nor open-book. Always verify weights, dates and exam conditions on your own LMS/Canvas. 标准估值典籍 -- FCFF/FCFE、WACC 家族、CAPM beta 加杠杆、terminal value、倍数、无套利复制 -- 是普适的 方法,且被公开陈述(一个现值是一个事实;一个恒等式就是一个恒等式),遵循标准参考文献(Berk & DeMarzo;Koller- Goedhart-Wessels;Damodaran)。课程协调员自己的历年考试题干与案例数字经过转述与重新编号 -- 这里每一个例 题都用我们自己虚构的公司和整数。书本状态:带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记+一台不可编程的 Casio FX82(FX-8200 被禁),并有一份提供的课程公式表;它既非闭卷也非开卷。永远在你自己的 LMS/Canvas 上核实权重、日期与考试条件。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual THE BLUEPRINT THE EXAM BLUEPRINT FINAL 65% . BRING-IN A4 + PROVIDED SHEET 65% final - bring-in A4, formula sheet provided 65% 期末––可带入 A4,提供公式表 Take-home exam 15% . Group assignment 20% . Final exam 65% Take-home 考试 15% · 小组作业 20% · 期末考试 65% TL;DR. Your mark is three pieces and one dominates: a 65% invigilated final, 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet as short-answer concepts and calculations - no algebraic derivations. It is neither closed nor open: you carry in one double-sided A4 of your own notes and a Casio FX82, and the paper prints the formula sheet for you. So the make-or-break skill is choosing the right model, not recalling a formula. Coordinator: Prof John Handley. TL;DR。你的分数由三部分组成,其中一项占主导:一场65% 的监考期末,180 分钟+15 分钟阅读时间,写在答题册上,形式为简 答概念题与计算题 -- 没有代数推导。它既非闭卷也非开卷:你带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记和一台 Casio FX82,而试卷会替 你印好公式表。所以决定成败的技能是选对模型,而不是回忆公式。课程协调员:Prof John Handley。 65% FINAL EXAM (INVIGILATED) final exam(监考) 180+15m WRITING + READING TIME 笔试 + 阅读时间 1 DOUBLE-SIDED A4 ALLOWED 允许双面 A4 ✓ FORMULA SHEET PROVIDED 提供 formula sheet AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual The three assessment pieces 三项评估组成 Component Weight When / detail Final examination - invigilated, individual, short-answer concepts & calculations 65% Exam period (180m + 15m) Group assignment (groups of 1- 20% Feedback = end of sem[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[5]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf上面每一行底下都坐着一条规则:折现率必须匹配现金流的风险与时间,以及它被定义的基准。配错了,所提供的公式表就会算出 一个毫无意义的数。把这四对操练到成为条件反射。 Cash flow Pairs with rate Because FCFU - unlevered, no ITS ks (Standard WACC) ITS stripped from BOTH sides FCF - all investors, contains ITS ky (Vanilla WACC) ITS lives in the cash flow FCFE - equity residual ke (FCFE model / DDM) equity cash +> equity rate FCFU + ITS separately ku & kits (APV) operations + financing split ✓ Name the type out loud, then commit 大声说出题型,然后下定决心 In the 15-minute reading time, write the type name beside each question ("recursive", "de-lever beta", "convertible" . . . ). That one label triggers the model, the matched pair and the first three steps from this grid - before the clock on the 180 minutes really starts. 在 15 分钟阅读时间里,在每道题旁写上类型名("recursive”、“de-lever beta"、"convertible" . . . )。那一个标签就触发 了模型、配对组合,以及这张网格里的前三步 -- 在180 分钟的钟真正开始走之前。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR - EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM-CONDITIONS: ONE DOUBLE-SIDED A4 + CASIO FX82 Your bring-in A4 - method & decision logic, not formulas 你带入的 A4 -- 方法与决策逻辑,而非公式 Six zones, a 180-minute triage, and the selector you must draw from memory 六个区域、一份180分钟分诊计划,以及你必须凭记忆画出的选择器 TL;DR. You may bring one double-sided A4 of your own notes and a non-programmable Casio FX82 (the FX-8200 is not permitted); the formula sheet is provided inside the exam (you may ignore the imputation formulae). So do not waste the A4 on formulas you will already be given - fill it with decision logic, worked-step templates and traps. Below is a six-zone layout that mirrors the decoder. TL;DR。你可以带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记和一台不可编程的 Casio FX82(FX-8200 不允许);公式表在考试中提供(你可以 忽略 imputation 公式)。所以不要把A4 浪费在你已经会被给到的公式上 -- 用决策逻辑、分步模板和陷阱把它填满。下面是 一个映射解码器的六区域版式。 i Honour the exam conditions exactly 严格遵守考试条件 Bring-in (one A4 of your own notes) + a provided formula sheet - this is neither closed nor fully open book. Raw formulas are supplied, so they earn you nothing on the A4. Your edge is knowing which model to use and executing it cleanly under time pressure.[14]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf3; build/apply a valuation) Individual take-home exam (online, individual) 15% Mid-semester ★ The exam format - model selection, NOT formula recall 考试形式 -- 模型选择,而非公式默写 One invigilated written paper, and the formula sheet is printed inside it. You will not earn marks for reproducing ks or the CAPM - they are given. You will be handed a firm sketch, forecasts, leverage information and cost-of-capital inputs and asked to name the right model, build the cash flows, discount, and bridge to a per-share value - plus short concept items (why enterprise DCF; Standard vs Vanilla vs Recursive WACC; the interest-tax-shield risk switch; why a multiple must be like-with-like). Questions are short-answer with no algebraic derivations. Walk a full valuation on a fresh firm and you have walked the exam. 一场监考的书面试卷,而公式表就印在它里面。你不会 因复述 或 CAPM 而得分 -- 它们是给定的。你会拿到 一份公司速写、各种预测、杠杆信息和资本成本输入, 并被要求点出正确的模型、搭建现金流、折现,并桥接 到一个每股价值- -外加一些简短的概念项(为什么用 TEIL DCF;Standard vs Vanilla vs Recursive WACC; 利息税盾风险开关;为什么一个倍数必须同类与同类)。 题目是简答型,没有代数推导。在一家新公司上走完一 次完整估值,你就走完了考试。 FIG 0. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ Changing L or operating risk k_u D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_tor k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T] k_w = (1-L]k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF"U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s,t) Mies-Ezzel K_V= K_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its . k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its . k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
-
所以最重要的一句话:
- 不要把时间浪费在背公式上。
- 要把时间花在:
- 模型选择
- 步骤模板
- 常见陷阱
- 题干信号识别[1]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe 65% final is the whole game, and the formula sheet is printed inside it. Students who revise by memorising formulas waste effort the exam already gives away - and still drop marks because they picked the wrong WACC model for the leverage story, or fumbled the EV-equity bridge. Spend your revision on model selection and clean step templates. Treat the 20% group assignment as exam practice with a longer deadline: building the model is learning the exam. 65% 的期末就是整盘棋,而公式表就印在它里面。靠背公式来复习的学生白费了考试已经送出的力气 -- 而且仍然丢分, 因为他们为那个杠杆故事选错了WACC 模型,或在 EV→股权桥接上失手。把你的复习花在模型选择和干净的步骤模板 上。把那个20% 的小组作业当作一个截止日期更长的考试练习:搭建那个模型本身就是在学考试。 i How this book was built - and the two-layer rule 这本书是如何搭建的 -- 以及双层规则 The standard valuation canon - FCFF/FCFE, the WACC family, CAPM beta levering, terminal values, multiples, no- arbitrage replication - is universal method and is stated openly (a present value is a fact; an identity is an identity), following the standard references (Berk & DeMarzo; Koller-Goedhart-Wessels; Damodaran). The coordinator's own past-exam stems and case figures are paraphrased and re-numbered - every worked example here uses our own invented firm and round numbers. Book status: bring-in one double-sided A4 of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (the FX-8200 is banned), with a course formula sheet provided; it is neither closed-book nor open-book. Always verify weights, dates and exam conditions on your own LMS/Canvas. 标准估值典籍 -- FCFF/FCFE、WACC 家族、CAPM beta 加杠杆、terminal value、倍数、无套利复制 -- 是普适的 方法,且被公开陈述(一个现值是一个事实;一个恒等式就是一个恒等式),遵循标准参考文献(Berk & DeMarzo;Koller- Goedhart-Wessels;Damodaran)。课程协调员自己的历年考试题干与案例数字经过转述与重新编号 -- 这里每一个例 题都用我们自己虚构的公司和整数。书本状态:带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记+一台不可编程的 Casio FX82(FX-8200 被禁),并有一份提供的课程公式表;它既非闭卷也非开卷。永远在你自己的 LMS/Canvas 上核实权重、日期与考试条件。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual THE BLUEPRINT THE EXAM BLUEPRINT FINAL 65% . BRING-IN A4 + PROVIDED SHEET 65% final - bring-in A4, formula sheet provided 65% 期末––可带入 A4,提供公式表 Take-home exam 15% . Group assignment 20% . Final exam 65% Take-home 考试 15% · 小组作业 20% · 期末考试 65% TL;DR. Your mark is three pieces and one dominates: a 65% invigilated final, 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet as short-answer concepts and calculations - no algebraic derivations. It is neither closed nor open: you carry in one double-sided A4 of your own notes and a Casio FX82, and the paper prints the formula sheet for you. So the make-or-break skill is choosing the right model, not recalling a formula. Coordinator: Prof John Handley. TL;DR。你的分数由三部分组成,其中一项占主导:一场65% 的监考期末,180 分钟+15 分钟阅读时间,写在答题册上,形式为简 答概念题与计算题 -- 没有代数推导。它既非闭卷也非开卷:你带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记和一台 Casio FX82,而试卷会替 你印好公式表。所以决定成败的技能是选对模型,而不是回忆公式。课程协调员:Prof John Handley。 65% FINAL EXAM (INVIGILATED) final exam(监考) 180+15m WRITING + READING TIME 笔试 + 阅读时间 1 DOUBLE-SIDED A4 ALLOWED 允许双面 A4 ✓ FORMULA SHEET PROVIDED 提供 formula sheet AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual The three assessment pieces 三项评估组成 Component Weight When / detail Final examination - invigilated, individual, short-answer concepts & calculations 65% Exam period (180m + 15m) Group assignment (groups of 1- 20% Feedback = end of sem[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[5]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf上面每一行底下都坐着一条规则:折现率必须匹配现金流的风险与时间,以及它被定义的基准。配错了,所提供的公式表就会算出 一个毫无意义的数。把这四对操练到成为条件反射。 Cash flow Pairs with rate Because FCFU - unlevered, no ITS ks (Standard WACC) ITS stripped from BOTH sides FCF - all investors, contains ITS ky (Vanilla WACC) ITS lives in the cash flow FCFE - equity residual ke (FCFE model / DDM) equity cash +> equity rate FCFU + ITS separately ku & kits (APV) operations + financing split ✓ Name the type out loud, then commit 大声说出题型,然后下定决心 In the 15-minute reading time, write the type name beside each question ("recursive", "de-lever beta", "convertible" . . . ). That one label triggers the model, the matched pair and the first three steps from this grid - before the clock on the 180 minutes really starts. 在 15 分钟阅读时间里,在每道题旁写上类型名("recursive”、“de-lever beta"、"convertible" . . . )。那一个标签就触发 了模型、配对组合,以及这张网格里的前三步 -- 在180 分钟的钟真正开始走之前。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR - EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM-CONDITIONS: ONE DOUBLE-SIDED A4 + CASIO FX82 Your bring-in A4 - method & decision logic, not formulas 你带入的 A4 -- 方法与决策逻辑,而非公式 Six zones, a 180-minute triage, and the selector you must draw from memory 六个区域、一份180分钟分诊计划,以及你必须凭记忆画出的选择器 TL;DR. You may bring one double-sided A4 of your own notes and a non-programmable Casio FX82 (the FX-8200 is not permitted); the formula sheet is provided inside the exam (you may ignore the imputation formulae). So do not waste the A4 on formulas you will already be given - fill it with decision logic, worked-step templates and traps. Below is a six-zone layout that mirrors the decoder. TL;DR。你可以带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记和一台不可编程的 Casio FX82(FX-8200 不允许);公式表在考试中提供(你可以 忽略 imputation 公式)。所以不要把A4 浪费在你已经会被给到的公式上 -- 用决策逻辑、分步模板和陷阱把它填满。下面是 一个映射解码器的六区域版式。 i Honour the exam conditions exactly 严格遵守考试条件 Bring-in (one A4 of your own notes) + a provided formula sheet - this is neither closed nor fully open book. Raw formulas are supplied, so they earn you nothing on the A4. Your edge is knowing which model to use and executing it cleanly under time pressure.[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制
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二、这门课最核心的“考试哲学”
-
你可以把整门课压缩成这 3 个最高频动作:
-
1)先点名模型
- 每道题一上来,先判断:
- 这是 Standard WACC?
- Vanilla WACC?
- Recursive Standard WACC?
- FCFE 模型?
- DDM?
- Multiples?
- Replication?[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制[9]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 This is the single most valuable page in the bible. The 65% written final (180 min + 15 min reading, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations) is decided question-by-question by this selector. The formula sheet is provided; a non-programmable Casio FX82 and one double-sided A4 of your own notes are your only aids - so your A4 must carry this decision logic, not the formulas. Mis-read the leverage switch and the provided sheet will not save you: you will discount a changing-leverage project at one ks (wrong) or grind a constant-ratio firm recursively (slow, error-prone). 这是整本 bible 里最有价值的一页。这场65% 的笔试 final(180 分钟+15分钟阅读时间,简答概念+计算,不考代数推 导)是靠这张选择器逐题决定的。formula sheet 是提供的;一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 和一张你自己的双面 A4 笔记是 你仅有的辅助 -- 所以你的A4 必须承载这套决策逻辑,而不是那些公式。看错杠杆的开关,提供的公式表也救不了你:你会 用一个(错的)single 去折现一个杠杆在变的项目,或者把一个 constant-ratio 公司递归地硬磨(慢、易错)。 s. 1 Switch 1 - how does leverage behave? S. 1开关 1 -- 杠杆如何变化? Read the stem for the shape of the debt. Three shapes, three models. The whole WACC family is one decision tree: 读题干找债务的形态。三种形态,三个模型。整个 WACC 家族就是一棵决策树: AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG S. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model selector. The root question is the shape of leverage; each branch fixes the model and the matched (cash-flow, rate) pair. The gold strip is the second switch - the risk of the interest tax shields. Memorise this picture; the formula sheet supplies the rest. WACC 模型选择器。根问题是杠杆的形态;每个分支确定模型和配对的(现金流、利率)组合。金色那条带是第二个开关 -- ITS 的风险。把这张图背下来;formula sheet 提供其余部分。[14]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf3; build/apply a valuation) Individual take-home exam (online, individual) 15% Mid-semester ★ The exam format - model selection, NOT formula recall 考试形式 -- 模型选择,而非公式默写 One invigilated written paper, and the formula sheet is printed inside it. You will not earn marks for reproducing ks or the CAPM - they are given. You will be handed a firm sketch, forecasts, leverage information and cost-of-capital inputs and asked to name the right model, build the cash flows, discount, and bridge to a per-share value - plus short concept items (why enterprise DCF; Standard vs Vanilla vs Recursive WACC; the interest-tax-shield risk switch; why a multiple must be like-with-like). Questions are short-answer with no algebraic derivations. Walk a full valuation on a fresh firm and you have walked the exam. 一场监考的书面试卷,而公式表就印在它里面。你不会 因复述 或 CAPM 而得分 -- 它们是给定的。你会拿到 一份公司速写、各种预测、杠杆信息和资本成本输入, 并被要求点出正确的模型、搭建现金流、折现,并桥接 到一个每股价值- -外加一些简短的概念项(为什么用 TEIL DCF;Standard vs Vanilla vs Recursive WACC; 利息税盾风险开关;为什么一个倍数必须同类与同类)。 题目是简答型,没有代数推导。在一家新公司上走完一 次完整估值,你就走完了考试。 FIG 0. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ Changing L or operating risk k_u D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_tor k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T] k_w = (1-L]k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF"U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s,t) Mies-Ezzel K_V= K_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its . k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its . k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula
- 每道题一上来,先判断:
-
2)再配对现金流和折现率
- 这一步是整门课的灵魂。
- 错配 = 计算再漂亮也没意义。[5]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf上面每一行底下都坐着一条规则:折现率必须匹配现金流的风险与时间,以及它被定义的基准。配错了,所提供的公式表就会算出 一个毫无意义的数。把这四对操练到成为条件反射。 Cash flow Pairs with rate Because FCFU - unlevered, no ITS ks (Standard WACC) ITS stripped from BOTH sides FCF - all investors, contains ITS ky (Vanilla WACC) ITS lives in the cash flow FCFE - equity residual ke (FCFE model / DDM) equity cash +> equity rate FCFU + ITS separately ku & kits (APV) operations + financing split ✓ Name the type out loud, then commit 大声说出题型,然后下定决心 In the 15-minute reading time, write the type name beside each question ("recursive", "de-lever beta", "convertible" . . . ). That one label triggers the model, the matched pair and the first three steps from this grid - before the clock on the 180 minutes really starts. 在 15 分钟阅读时间里,在每道题旁写上类型名("recursive”、“de-lever beta"、"convertible" . . . )。那一个标签就触发 了模型、配对组合,以及这张网格里的前三步 -- 在180 分钟的钟真正开始走之前。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR - EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM-CONDITIONS: ONE DOUBLE-SIDED A4 + CASIO FX82 Your bring-in A4 - method & decision logic, not formulas 你带入的 A4 -- 方法与决策逻辑,而非公式 Six zones, a 180-minute triage, and the selector you must draw from memory 六个区域、一份180分钟分诊计划,以及你必须凭记忆画出的选择器 TL;DR. You may bring one double-sided A4 of your own notes and a non-programmable Casio FX82 (the FX-8200 is not permitted); the formula sheet is provided inside the exam (you may ignore the imputation formulae). So do not waste the A4 on formulas you will already be given - fill it with decision logic, worked-step templates and traps. Below is a six-zone layout that mirrors the decoder. TL;DR。你可以带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记和一台不可编程的 Casio FX82(FX-8200 不允许);公式表在考试中提供(你可以 忽略 imputation 公式)。所以不要把A4 浪费在你已经会被给到的公式上 -- 用决策逻辑、分步模板和陷阱把它填满。下面是 一个映射解码器的六区域版式。 i Honour the exam conditions exactly 严格遵守考试条件 Bring-in (one A4 of your own notes) + a provided formula sheet - this is neither closed nor fully open book. Raw formulas are supplied, so they earn you nothing on the A4. Your edge is knowing which model to use and executing it cleanly under time pressure.[6]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfTL;DR. The exam gives you the formula sheet, so marks are won on knowing which model a cue points to, not on recall. This bank pairs every term with its +X and a one-line meaning written as a trigger - read the right-hand column as "the moment I see this, I reach for that. " Use it to translate a question stem into a model in the 15-minute reading time. TL;DR。考试把公式表给你,所以分数赢在知道一个线索指向哪个模型,而非默写。这个库把每个术语与它的中文及一行式含义 配对,后者写成一个触发器 -- 把右栏读作“我一看到这个,就去拿那个。”用它在15分钟阅读时间里把一个题干翻译成一个模 型。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 These terms are the vocabulary of the 65% final (180 min + 15 min reading; bring-in A4 + a provided formula sheet). The exam tests concepts and calculations, no algebraic derivations - so the graded skill is choosing the right (cash-flow, discount-rate) pair from a cue. Examined scope = Classes 2-10; Class 1 Framework, Workshop 6 Part B and Class 11 Imputation are not examinable. 这些术语是65% final(180 分钟+15 分钟阅读;bring-in A4+一张提供的 formula sheet)的词汇表。这场考试考概念和 计算,不考代数推导 -- 所以打分的技能是从一条线索里选出对的(现金流、折现率)配对。考查范围= Class 2-10;Class 1 Framework、Workshop 6 Part B 和 Class 11 Imputation 不考。 Term (EN) 中文 One-line meaning (method & when to use) Cash flows & DCF foundations (W2) Free cash flow (FCF) 自由现金流 EBIT + DEP - CAPEX - AWC - tax; cash to all investors and it already contains the interest tax shield. Unlevered FCF (FCFU) 无杠杆自由现 金流 FCF with the ITS stripped out (FCF - Y. T) - the cash an all-equity firm makes; pair it with ks. FCFE (FCF to equity) 股权自由现金 流 Residual to shareholders after interest and net principal; discount at ke to value equity directly. Interest tax shield (ITS) 利息税盾 Y. T - tax saved because interest is deductible; its risk (ky vs kd) is the switch behind every WACC. Dividend discount model (DDM) 股利折现模型 Value equity off dividends, not FCFE; needs a surplus-cash / surplus-liability fix whenever dividend # FCFE. Gordon / constant- growth 戈登(固定增 长) 模型 D1+(ke-g); valid only when ke > g - the steady-state shortcut for a perpetuity. Perpetuity / growing perpetuity 永续年金/增 长永续 C+r and C1+(r-g); the value sits at time t, one period before the first cash flow.[8]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfWalk in ready 10 The model selector the master decision tree . the 4 matching pairs . which method, when → 11 Glossary & formula map every term, one line each · bilingual . what each provided formula is for → 12 Practice bank & solutions the recurring exam templates (2020-2025 DNA) on our own firms → AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual i Why this order - and what is in / out of scope 为什么是这个顺序 -- 以及范围之内/之外是什么 The subject builds strictly. Part I sets the engine - equity DCF, then the enterprise DCF and the three WACC models that are the course's signature. Part II feeds the engine - estimate the discount rates (CAPM, beta levering, credit spreads) and handle the messy real-world items. Part III cross-checks and replaces the DCF where needed - multiples, where value comes from, and no-arbitrage valuation of hybrids. Examined scope = Classes 2-10. The Class 1 framework (takeovers, the 20% rule, Independent Expert Reports), Workshop 6 Part B (the integrated model) and Class 11 (imputation - you may ignore the imputation formulae on the provided sheet) are non-examinable and appear here only as context. 这门课严格地层层搭建。第一部分搭起引擎 -- 先是股权 DCF,然后是企业 DCF 以及作为本课招牌的三个 WACC 模 型。第二部分给引擎供料 -- 估计折现率(CAPM、beta 加杠杆、credit spread)并处理那些杂乱的现实世界项目。第三 部分交叉验证并在必要处替换 DCF -- 倍数、价值从何而来,以及混合工具的无套利估值。可考范围=第 2-10 课。第1 课框架(收购、20% 规则、独立专家报告)、Workshop 6 Part B(整合模型)与第 11课(imputation -- 你可以忽略所提供 公式表上的 imputation 公式)不可考,在此仅作为背景出现。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 2 . EQUITY DCF - CLASS 2 . EQUITY DCF W2 . THE BUILDING BLOCK Equity valuation by DCF & the four cash-flow measures 用 DCF 做股权估值与四种现金流口径 FCF, unlevered FCF and FCFE - one cascade, three answers FCF、无杠杆 FCF 与 FCFE -- 一条级联,三个答案 TL;DR. A DCF says value today = the present value of expected future cash flows discounted at a rate that reflects their risk. The trick of the whole course is choosing which cash flow and pairing it with the matching discount rate. Class 2 sets up the three cash-flow measures - FCF, unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCFE - and the equity models (FCFE model & DDM) you build on them. TL;DR。一个 DCF 说的是:今天的价值=预期未来现金流以反映其风险的折现率折现后的现值。整门课的诀窍在于选择哪一 种现金流,并把它与匹配的折现率配对。第2课搭起三种现金流口径 -- FCF、无杠杆 FCF()与 FCFE -- 以及建立在它们之 上的股权模型(FCFE 模型与 DDM)。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 2 is the foundation of the 65% bring-in-A4 final (3h + 15m, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations). The formula sheet is provided - so marks are won on which cash-flow measure to use and what discount rate it pairs with, never on recalling a formula. The examinable hooks: define and reconcile FCF vs FCFU vs FCFE, build FCF from a statement, value equity by the FCFE model and the DDM, and reconcile the two (next page). Put the cash-flow cascade and the four matched (cash-flow, rate) pairs on your A4. 第2 课是这场 65% 带入-A4 期末(3小时+15分钟,简答概念题+计算题,没有代数推导)的基础。公式表是提供的 - 所以分数赢在用哪种现金流口径以及它配什么折现率,绝不在回忆一个公式。可考的挂钩:界定并对账 FCF vs FCFU vs FCFE、从一张报表搭出 FCF、用 FCFE 模型和 DDM 给股权估值,并对账两者(下一页)。把现金流级联和那四对匹配的 (现金流,率)组合放上你的A4。 2. 1 The DCF idea & its three pillars 2. 1DCF 的理念及其三大支柱 Value is forward-looking and additive: 价值是前瞻的且可加的: Vo => T (1 + r){ Ct t=1 Three pillars justify the discounting. Time value of money - a safe dollar now beats a safe dollar later. Risk aversion - a safe dollar later beats a risky one, so a risk premium is added to r. Value additivity - the PV of a sum equals the sum of the PVs, which lets us value each surplus asset, claim and cash stream separately then add them.
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3)最后一定桥接到股权/每股
- 很多同学算到 EV 就停了。
- 但考试常常要的是:
- equity value
- equity value per share
- 所以你一定要跑完:
- EV
- 加/减调整项
- 得到 equity
- 除以 shares[4]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf一本书,三个时刻 LEARN the method - BUILD the model- walk the exam answer shape LEARN 方法 → BUILD 模型 → 走一遍考试答题形态 TL;DR. This is not a transcript of the seminars or a re-run of the workshop spreadsheets. It is a self- contained course in the valuation reasoning FNCE30011 examines - each idea stated plainly, each method shown on a fully-worked example with our own round numbers, each classic trap flagged. Because the exam hands you the formula sheet, these pages drill the thing it cannot give you: read the setup, name the right model, build the cash flows, bridge to equity. TL;DR。这不是研讨课的逐字记录,也不是工作坊电子表格的重跑。它是一门自成体系的课程,讲授 FNCE30011 所考的估值推 理 -- 每个理念都讲得明明白白,每种方法都在一个用我们自己的整数完整算过的例子上展示,每个经典陷阱都被标出。因为考 试会把公式表交给你,这些页面操练的是它无法给你的东西:读懂设置、点出正确的模型、搭建现金流、桥接到股权。 A 1 . LEARN the method 1 · LEARN 方法 You haven't done the topic yet. Read a chapter top to bottom. Every idea opens with a one-line TL;DR, then heading - diagram/formula - explainer - worked example - trap - recap. The diagrams are original schematics of the standard valuation canon - learn the DCF picture and the WACC fork cold. 你还没学过这个主题。把一章从 头读到尾。每个理念都以一行 TL;DR 开头,然后是标题 → 图 示/公式→讲解→ 例题 → 陷 阱→回顾。图示是标准估值典 籍的原创示意图 -- 把 DCF 那 张图和WACC分叉学到烂熟。 B 2 . BUILD the model 2 · BUILD 模型 You've seen the seminar and a workshop. Cover the worked steps and re-build each by hand on a Casio FX82 - forecast the unlevered FCF, choose the WACC model, discount, add the terminal value, run the EV-equity bridge. The 20% group assignment is this book applied to a real firm; the exam is the same engine on fresh numbers. 你看过研讨课和一节工作坊了。 盖住已算的步骤,用 Casio FX82 逐一手工重建 -- 预测无杠杆 FCF、选择 WACC 模型、折 现、加上 terminal value、跑 EV→股权桥接。那个20% 的小 组作业就是把这本书应用到一家 真实公司上;考试则是同一台引擎 在新数字上的运行。 C 3 . APPLY 3 · APPLY 应用 It's revision / SWOT week. The TL;DRs, the trap boxes and the recurring model-selector - DCF + equity pattern are your map. Distil them onto your one A4: a model-selector decision tree, the four cash-flow / discount-rate matching pairs, and your worked- step templates - not a wall of formulas (those are provided). 现在是复习/SWOT周。那些 TL;DR、陷阱框,以及反复出现的 模型选择器→ DCF→ 股权模式 就是你的地图。把它们提炼到你 的那一张 A4 上:一棵模型选择器 决策树、四对现金流 / 折现率匹 配组合,以及你的分步模板 -- 而 不是一墙公式(那些是提供的)。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual i The single engine that runs the whole subject 贯穿整门课的那个单一引擎 Master one calculation and the subject collapses into a pattern. Every task - an enterprise DCF, a WACC build, a multiple, a hybrid by replication - orbits the same engine: estimate the free cash flow to all investors, discount it at the cost of capital, add a terminal value, then bridge enterprise value to equity and divide by shares. Wrapped around it is one front-door question - which WACC model does the leverage story imply? - and one answer shape the markers reward beat by beat. Internalise both and fresh exam numbers cannot surprise you. - 掌握一个计算,这门课就坍缩成一个模式。每一项任务 -- 一个企业 DCF、一次 WACC 搭建、一个倍数、一个用复制法 处理的混合工具 -- 都绕着同一台引擎转:估计流向所有投资者的自由现金流、用资本成本折现它、加上一个 terminal value,然后把企业价值桥接到股权并除以股数。包裹在它外面的是一个前门问题 -- 杠杆故事意味着哪个 WACC 模型? -以及一种打分人会逐拍奖励的答案形态。把两者内化,新的考试数字就吓不到你。 THE SPINE EV = T ∑ t=1 FCFU (1 + ks)* + TVT (1 + ks)T ⟶ Equity = EV - net debt ⟶ Equity shares ! The most important strategic fact about FNCE30011 关于 FNCE30011 最重要的策略性事实[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual
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三、你必须背熟的“总框架图”
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按当前文件,这门课分三大块:
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Part I:DCF 引擎
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Part II:折现率与修正
- CAPM
- Fama-French
- beta 加杠杆 / 去杠杆
- credit spread
- surplus assets
- cash
- leases
- terminal value
- changing operating risk[10]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfTL;DR. The book follows the subject's arc - the DCF engine (Classes 2-4), the discount rates and refinements that feed it (Classes 5-6), then the cross-checks and replication that defend the answer (Classes 7-10) - before turning it into marks with the model selector, glossary and a practice bank built on the real 2020-2025 exam DNA. TL;DR。本书循着这门课的弧线推进 -- DCF 引擎(第2-4课)、为它供料的折现率与各种细化(第 5-6课),然后是捍卫答案 的交叉验证与复制(第7-10课) -- 再以模型选择器、术语表,以及一个建立在真实 2020-2025 考试 DNA 之上的练习库,把 这一切转化为分数。 Ch Topic Core ideas Part I . The DCF engine (Classes 2-4) 1 Equity valuation using DCF FCF & FCFE . the FCFE model . DDM / Gordon . FCFE-DDM reconciliation . FCF from the statements → 2 Enterprise DCF: the Standard WACC one-period model . kg = (1 - L)ke + Lka(1 -T) · constant target leverage (Miles- → Ezzell) · APV = U0 + I0 · ku 3 Enterprise DCF: the Vanilla & Recursive WACC ky = (1 - L)ke + Lka · target debt schedule . ky = ku when kits = ku · recursive standard WACC by backward induction → Part II . Rates & refinements (Classes 5-6) 4 Estimating discount rates CAPM · Fama-French · levering / de-levering beta (Bu = (1 - L)Be + LBa) . credit → spread (y = rf +CS) 5 Miscellaneous DCF issues surplus (non-operating) assets . cash as net debt . consolidated FCF . one-offs . → leases . terminal values . changing operating risk Part III . Cross-checks & replication (Classes 7-10) 6 Valuation using PE multiples what a multiple is . PE in the FCFE frame (no-growth vs growth) . maintainable earnings . choosing comparators . control premium → 7 Valuation using other multiples EBIT, EBITDA, EBITDA-CAPEX multiples . equity vs enterprise multiples . how leverage & capex distort each . like-with-like → 8 Where value comes from & dilution competitive advantage · growth options . share-issue pricing . two-price dilution cases → 9 Valuation by replication arbitrage & the Law of One Price . replicating portfolios . convertibles = bond + call . warrants . bootstrapping spot rates →[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual
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Part III:交叉验证与替代定价
- PE multiples
- EBIT / EBITDA / EBITDA-CAPEX multiples
- value comes from where
- dilution
- replication
- convertibles
- warrants
- bond arbitrage[3]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfAskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 9 回忆清单 -- 第9类 | 三个价值来源:竞争优势(可持续的)、增长期权(未来灵活性)、稀释(分蛋糕)。 · Wealth-transfer rule: Nnew X (Vfair - Pissue) - zero at fair value, positive (to new owners) when under-priced. I 财富转移规则: -- 公允价值时为零,定价过低时为正(给新所有者)。 · Method: cum value per share - add new cash & new shares - ex value per share - per-owner $ change. I 方法:cum 每股价值 →加入新现金 &新股→ ex 每股价值→每个所有者的$ 变化。 · %-dilution (everyone non-participating) # value dilution (below-value issues only). %-稀释(人人未参与)≠ 价值稀释(仅低于价值的发行)。 两个价格=不同公允价值/内部-vs-外部/蓄意转移;输家是未参与的所有者。 · Remedy: pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. 补救:公司章程里的 pre-emptive right / anti-dilution 条款。 ● 价值的三个来源:竞争优势(持续的 ROIC>ku)、增长期权(未来的灵活性)、稀释(分割饼)。 财富转移规则:Nnew ×(Vfair - Pissue)–– 在公允价值时为零,在定价偏低时为正(流向新股东)。 ● 方法:除权前每股价值→加入新现金 &新股→除权后每股价值→每位股东的 $ 变化。 · %-稀释(每一个不参与认购的人)≠价值稀释(仅限低于价值的发行)。 ● 两个价格= 不同的公允价值/内部人 vs 外部人/蓄意转移;受损方是 不参与认购的 股东。 ● 补救:章程里的优先认购权 / 反稀释条款。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 10 . REPLICATION VALUATION BY REPLICATION CLASS 10 . THE HYBRIDS CHAPTER If two assets pay the same, they must cost the same 若两项资产支付相同,则它们必定成本相同 arbitrage & the Law of One Price . convertible = bond + call 套利与 Law of One Price · 可转债 = 债券 + call TL;DR. When a security has a kinked payoff - a convertible, a warrant, a bond-with-warrants - you do not need a fresh discount-rate model. You replicate it: build a portfolio of things you can price (a straight bond + calls/puts + a zero-coupon bond) whose payoff matches the security in every future state, then by the Law of One Price the security must cost exactly what that portfolio costs. The kink is the tell - it always hides an option. TL;DR。当一个证券有带折点的收益 ---- 只可转债、一份认股权证、一只附认股权证的债券 -- 时,你不需要一个全新的折 现率模型。你复制它:构建一个由你能够定价的东西(一只直债+若干 call/put+一只零息债券)组成的组合,使其收益在每一个 未来状态都与该证券吻合,那么根据 Law of One Price,该证券的成本必定恰好等于那个组合的成本。折点就是线索 -- 它总 是藏着一个期权。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 10 is heavily examined in the 65% final and is the one place the formula sheet does not rescue you - there is no "hybrid formula", only the method. The recurring types: (i) value a convertible / callable-into-shares bond by LOOP (bond leg ± an option leg read off a given grid); (ii) how many bull-spread warrants to issue to raise a target sum; (iii) bond arbitrage from a zero-coupon price schedule - bootstrap spot rates, re-price, and state the trade. Put the cue - decompose - LOOP routine on your bring-in A4, not a formula. Reading-time triage: a kinked payoff or the word convertible / warrant / arbitrage - this chapter. Class 10 在 65% 期末考里 考得很多,而且是公式表 救不了你的唯一地方 -- 这里没有“混合证券公式”,只有 方法。 反复出现的题型:(i)用 LOOP 为可转债/可转股债券估值(债券腿±从给定网格中读出的一条期权腿);(ii)要发行多 少张牛市价差认股权证 才能筹到目标金额;(iii)从零息债券价格表做 债券套利 -- bootstrap 出即期利率、重新定价, 并 说明交易。把 信号→拆解→ LOOP 这套流程放到你可带入的A4 纸上,而非一个公式。阅读时间分诊:一个带折 点的回报,或 convertible / warrant / arbitrage 这几个词→本章。[10]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfTL;DR. The book follows the subject's arc - the DCF engine (Classes 2-4), the discount rates and refinements that feed it (Classes 5-6), then the cross-checks and replication that defend the answer (Classes 7-10) - before turning it into marks with the model selector, glossary and a practice bank built on the real 2020-2025 exam DNA. TL;DR。本书循着这门课的弧线推进 -- DCF 引擎(第2-4课)、为它供料的折现率与各种细化(第 5-6课),然后是捍卫答案 的交叉验证与复制(第7-10课) -- 再以模型选择器、术语表,以及一个建立在真实 2020-2025 考试 DNA 之上的练习库,把 这一切转化为分数。 Ch Topic Core ideas Part I . The DCF engine (Classes 2-4) 1 Equity valuation using DCF FCF & FCFE . the FCFE model . DDM / Gordon . FCFE-DDM reconciliation . FCF from the statements → 2 Enterprise DCF: the Standard WACC one-period model . kg = (1 - L)ke + Lka(1 -T) · constant target leverage (Miles- → Ezzell) · APV = U0 + I0 · ku 3 Enterprise DCF: the Vanilla & Recursive WACC ky = (1 - L)ke + Lka · target debt schedule . ky = ku when kits = ku · recursive standard WACC by backward induction → Part II . Rates & refinements (Classes 5-6) 4 Estimating discount rates CAPM · Fama-French · levering / de-levering beta (Bu = (1 - L)Be + LBa) . credit → spread (y = rf +CS) 5 Miscellaneous DCF issues surplus (non-operating) assets . cash as net debt . consolidated FCF . one-offs . → leases . terminal values . changing operating risk Part III . Cross-checks & replication (Classes 7-10) 6 Valuation using PE multiples what a multiple is . PE in the FCFE frame (no-growth vs growth) . maintainable earnings . choosing comparators . control premium → 7 Valuation using other multiples EBIT, EBITDA, EBITDA-CAPEX multiples . equity vs enterprise multiples . how leverage & capex distort each . like-with-like → 8 Where value comes from & dilution competitive advantage · growth options . share-issue pricing . two-price dilution cases → 9 Valuation by replication arbitrage & the Law of One Price . replicating portfolios . convertibles = bond + call . warrants . bootstrapping spot rates →[13]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfIf the traded price were instead above $1,001. 05, flip it: short the coupon bond, buy the replicating zeros. The marks are in naming the buy/short legs and the locked-in number - never just "an arbitrage exists". 如果交易价格反而高于$1,001. 05,就反过来:卖空附息债券,买入用于复制的零息债券。分数在于点名买入/卖空的各腿以 及锁定的那个数 -- 绝不要只说“存在一个套利”。 ! Single yield # spot rates ¥- yield # spot rates Pricing a coupon bond at one flat yield when the term structure slopes is the classic error - discount each promised cash flow at its own matching spot rate. And never stop at "arbitrage exists": the question "what should you do?" wants the explicit buy / short trade and the riskless profit. 当 期限结构有斜率 时却按一个统一收益率为附息债券定价,是经典的错误 -- 要按每一笔承诺现金流 各自匹配的即期 利率 来折现。而且绝不要停在“存在套利”上:“你应该怎么做?”这个问题要的是明确的 买入/做空交易 以及 无风险利 润。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 10 回忆清单 -- 第 10类 · Arbitrage = zero cost, no loss, chance of gain; LOOP = same payoff -> same price - price(X) = price(replicating portfolio). I 套利= 零成本、无亏损、有获利机会;LOOP= 相同 payoff →相同价格 → price(X)= price(复制组合)。 I 例行流程:把 payoff 列表 → 找出折点(= option)→识别 strike、到期日 & 谁持有它→组装各腿→ 定价 & 求和。 · Convertible = straight bond + call: CBo = Bo + Co (issuer-callable -+ -Co). Risk-insensitive: bond leg down, call leg up. I Convertible = straight bond + call:(issuer-callable →)。对风险不敏感:bond 腿下降,call 腿上升。 I Bull-spread warrant = long call(低)+ zero - short call(高);需发行数量 = 募资额÷ warrant 价值。 · Bond arbitrage: bootstrap yt from zeros - re-price at spots - if mispriced, state the buy/short trade + the riskless profit. 债券套利:从 zeros bootstrap → 在 spots 重新定价→若定价错误,说明买入/卖空交易+无风险利润。 ● 套利=零成本、无损失、有获利机会;LOOP =相同回报→相同价格→ price(X)= price(复制组合)。 ● 流程:列出回报表 →找出折点(=期权)→确定行权价、到期日 &谁持有它→组装各条腿→定价并求和。 ● 可转债 =直债+看涨期权:CBo = Bo+Co(发行人可赎回→-Co)。对风险不敏感:债券腿下跌,看涨期权腿上 涨。 · 牛市价差认股权证= 多头看涨(低)+零 一空头看涨(高);要发行的数量=筹资额÷认股权证价值。 ● 债券套利:从零息债券 bootstrap 出 yt → 按即期利率重新定价→如果定价错误,说明买入/做空交易+无风险利 润。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR CLASSES 3-4 . THE BRING-IN-A4 CORE The model selector - pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet 模型选择器––在翻公式表之前先选好模型 Two switches decide every DCF question: leverage shape, then ITS risk 两个开关决定每道 DCF 题:杠杆形态,然后是 ITS 风险 TL;DR. The exam hands you the formula sheet, so the marks are not in recalling ks or ky - they are in choosing the right model and pairing the right cash flow with the right rate. Ask two questions, in order. (1) How does leverage behave? A constant target ratio - Standard WACC; a fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with k, = ku); a changing ratio or changing operating risk ku > Recursive Standard WACC. (2) How risky are the interest tax shields? Rebalance-to-ratio -> kits = ku; a fixed schedule ++ kits = kd. Get those two right and the sheet does the arithmetic. TL;DR。考试把公式表交给你,所以分数不在回忆 或 -- 而在选对模型并把对的现金流与对的率配对。按顺序问两个问题。(1) 杠杆如何变化?一个恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;一份固定美元债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(带);一个变动的比率或变 动的经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。(2)利息税盾有多大风险?再平衡到比率→;固定计划表→。把这两个弄对, 公式表会做算术。
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四、最重要的一页:WACC 模型选择器
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先问第一个问题:杠杆怎么变化?
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如果题目是 constant target ratio
- 即债务按比例随企业价值再平衡
- 用 Standard WACC[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[9]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 This is the single most valuable page in the bible. The 65% written final (180 min + 15 min reading, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations) is decided question-by-question by this selector. The formula sheet is provided; a non-programmable Casio FX82 and one double-sided A4 of your own notes are your only aids - so your A4 must carry this decision logic, not the formulas. Mis-read the leverage switch and the provided sheet will not save you: you will discount a changing-leverage project at one ks (wrong) or grind a constant-ratio firm recursively (slow, error-prone). 这是整本 bible 里最有价值的一页。这场65% 的笔试 final(180 分钟+15分钟阅读时间,简答概念+计算,不考代数推 导)是靠这张选择器逐题决定的。formula sheet 是提供的;一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 和一张你自己的双面 A4 笔记是 你仅有的辅助 -- 所以你的A4 必须承载这套决策逻辑,而不是那些公式。看错杠杆的开关,提供的公式表也救不了你:你会 用一个(错的)single 去折现一个杠杆在变的项目,或者把一个 constant-ratio 公司递归地硬磨(慢、易错)。 s. 1 Switch 1 - how does leverage behave? S. 1开关 1 -- 杠杆如何变化? Read the stem for the shape of the debt. Three shapes, three models. The whole WACC family is one decision tree: 读题干找债务的形态。三种形态,三个模型。整个 WACC 家族就是一棵决策树: AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG S. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model selector. The root question is the shape of leverage; each branch fixes the model and the matched (cash-flow, rate) pair. The gold strip is the second switch - the risk of the interest tax shields. Memorise this picture; the formula sheet supplies the rest. WACC 模型选择器。根问题是杠杆的形态;每个分支确定模型和配对的(现金流、利率)组合。金色那条带是第二个开关 -- ITS 的风险。把这张图背下来;formula sheet 提供其余部分。[11]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfClass 4 is the engine room of the 65% final (180 min + 15 reading; Casio FX82, your bring-in A4, and the provided formula sheet). Because the sheet gives every formula, you lose marks only by choosing the wrong model. The two switches: (1) how does leverage behave? - constant ratio-Standard, dollar schedule-Vanilla, changing ratio / changing k -Recursive; (2) ITS risk? - rebalance-to-ratio -> knan=k , fixed schedule -> knon=kn. Past papers: equity from a vanilla EV (2022 Q1), back-out the ITS (2023 Q5), and the recursive value (2025/2023/2021 Q1) on page 3. Class 4 是这场 65% 期末考 的引擎室(180分钟+15 分钟阅读;Casio FX82、你可带入的A4纸,以及 提供的公式 表)。因为公式表给出了每一个公式,所以你只会因 选错模型 而丢分。两个开关:(1)杠杆如何表现 ?-- 恒定比率 →Standard,美元排程→Vanilla,变动比率/变动k→递归;(2) ITS 风险 ?-- 再平衡到比率→ Kn on = ka,固定排 程 → Kn on = kn。历年真题:从 vanilla EV 求股权(2022 Q1)、反推 ITS(2023 Q5),以及递归价值 (2025/2023/2021 Q1),见第3页。 4. 1 One picture decides the model 4. 1一张图决定模型 Every enterprise-DCF question in this subject is a fork. Read the financing policy, pick a branch, and the provided formula sheet does the rest. You will meet the right-hand branch in full on page 3. 本门课中每一道企业 DCF 题都是一个分叉。读懂融资政策、选一条分支,所提供的公式表会做完剩下的。你将在第3页完整 遇到右手那条分支。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG 4. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model-selector - the course's hook. Constant target ratio L (debt rebalanced to Dt=L . Vt) - Standard WACC. Fixed dollar debt schedule (L drifts) - Vanilla WACC, and if knon=ka then kn=ka. Changing ratio or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. The gold strip is the second switch: the risk of the interest tax shields . WACC 模型选择器 -- 这门课的钩子。Constant target ratio L(债务 rebalance 到 Dt=L· Vt)→ Standard WACC。 Fixed dollar debt schedule(L 漂移)→ Vanilla WACC,而如果 kn on=ka 则 kh=ka。 Changing ratio 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。金色那条带是第二个开关:ITS的风险。
-
如果题目是 fixed dollar debt schedule
- 即题目直接给定债务金额路径,债务是固定金额计划
- 用 Vanilla WACC[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[9]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 This is the single most valuable page in the bible. The 65% written final (180 min + 15 min reading, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations) is decided question-by-question by this selector. The formula sheet is provided; a non-programmable Casio FX82 and one double-sided A4 of your own notes are your only aids - so your A4 must carry this decision logic, not the formulas. Mis-read the leverage switch and the provided sheet will not save you: you will discount a changing-leverage project at one ks (wrong) or grind a constant-ratio firm recursively (slow, error-prone). 这是整本 bible 里最有价值的一页。这场65% 的笔试 final(180 分钟+15分钟阅读时间,简答概念+计算,不考代数推 导)是靠这张选择器逐题决定的。formula sheet 是提供的;一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 和一张你自己的双面 A4 笔记是 你仅有的辅助 -- 所以你的A4 必须承载这套决策逻辑,而不是那些公式。看错杠杆的开关,提供的公式表也救不了你:你会 用一个(错的)single 去折现一个杠杆在变的项目,或者把一个 constant-ratio 公司递归地硬磨(慢、易错)。 s. 1 Switch 1 - how does leverage behave? S. 1开关 1 -- 杠杆如何变化? Read the stem for the shape of the debt. Three shapes, three models. The whole WACC family is one decision tree: 读题干找债务的形态。三种形态,三个模型。整个 WACC 家族就是一棵决策树: AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG S. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model selector. The root question is the shape of leverage; each branch fixes the model and the matched (cash-flow, rate) pair. The gold strip is the second switch - the risk of the interest tax shields. Memorise this picture; the formula sheet supplies the rest. WACC 模型选择器。根问题是杠杆的形态;每个分支确定模型和配对的(现金流、利率)组合。金色那条带是第二个开关 -- ITS 的风险。把这张图背下来;formula sheet 提供其余部分。[11]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfClass 4 is the engine room of the 65% final (180 min + 15 reading; Casio FX82, your bring-in A4, and the provided formula sheet). Because the sheet gives every formula, you lose marks only by choosing the wrong model. The two switches: (1) how does leverage behave? - constant ratio-Standard, dollar schedule-Vanilla, changing ratio / changing k -Recursive; (2) ITS risk? - rebalance-to-ratio -> knan=k , fixed schedule -> knon=kn. Past papers: equity from a vanilla EV (2022 Q1), back-out the ITS (2023 Q5), and the recursive value (2025/2023/2021 Q1) on page 3. Class 4 是这场 65% 期末考 的引擎室(180分钟+15 分钟阅读;Casio FX82、你可带入的A4纸,以及 提供的公式 表)。因为公式表给出了每一个公式,所以你只会因 选错模型 而丢分。两个开关:(1)杠杆如何表现 ?-- 恒定比率 →Standard,美元排程→Vanilla,变动比率/变动k→递归;(2) ITS 风险 ?-- 再平衡到比率→ Kn on = ka,固定排 程 → Kn on = kn。历年真题:从 vanilla EV 求股权(2022 Q1)、反推 ITS(2023 Q5),以及递归价值 (2025/2023/2021 Q1),见第3页。 4. 1 One picture decides the model 4. 1一张图决定模型 Every enterprise-DCF question in this subject is a fork. Read the financing policy, pick a branch, and the provided formula sheet does the rest. You will meet the right-hand branch in full on page 3. 本门课中每一道企业 DCF 题都是一个分叉。读懂融资政策、选一条分支,所提供的公式表会做完剩下的。你将在第3页完整 遇到右手那条分支。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG 4. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model-selector - the course's hook. Constant target ratio L (debt rebalanced to Dt=L . Vt) - Standard WACC. Fixed dollar debt schedule (L drifts) - Vanilla WACC, and if knon=ka then kn=ka. Changing ratio or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. The gold strip is the second switch: the risk of the interest tax shields . WACC 模型选择器 -- 这门课的钩子。Constant target ratio L(债务 rebalance 到 Dt=L· Vt)→ Standard WACC。 Fixed dollar debt schedule(L 漂移)→ Vanilla WACC,而如果 kn on=ka 则 kh=ka。 Changing ratio 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。金色那条带是第二个开关:ITS的风险。
-
如果题目是:
- leverage ratio 会变
- 或 operating risk $k_u$ 会变
- 用 Recursive Standard WACC
- 通常要 backward induction(逆推)[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制[9]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 This is the single most valuable page in the bible. The 65% written final (180 min + 15 min reading, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations) is decided question-by-question by this selector. The formula sheet is provided; a non-programmable Casio FX82 and one double-sided A4 of your own notes are your only aids - so your A4 must carry this decision logic, not the formulas. Mis-read the leverage switch and the provided sheet will not save you: you will discount a changing-leverage project at one ks (wrong) or grind a constant-ratio firm recursively (slow, error-prone). 这是整本 bible 里最有价值的一页。这场65% 的笔试 final(180 分钟+15分钟阅读时间,简答概念+计算,不考代数推 导)是靠这张选择器逐题决定的。formula sheet 是提供的;一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 和一张你自己的双面 A4 笔记是 你仅有的辅助 -- 所以你的A4 必须承载这套决策逻辑,而不是那些公式。看错杠杆的开关,提供的公式表也救不了你:你会 用一个(错的)single 去折现一个杠杆在变的项目,或者把一个 constant-ratio 公司递归地硬磨(慢、易错)。 s. 1 Switch 1 - how does leverage behave? S. 1开关 1 -- 杠杆如何变化? Read the stem for the shape of the debt. Three shapes, three models. The whole WACC family is one decision tree: 读题干找债务的形态。三种形态,三个模型。整个 WACC 家族就是一棵决策树: AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG S. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model selector. The root question is the shape of leverage; each branch fixes the model and the matched (cash-flow, rate) pair. The gold strip is the second switch - the risk of the interest tax shields. Memorise this picture; the formula sheet supplies the rest. WACC 模型选择器。根问题是杠杆的形态;每个分支确定模型和配对的(现金流、利率)组合。金色那条带是第二个开关 -- ITS 的风险。把这张图背下来;formula sheet 提供其余部分。[11]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfClass 4 is the engine room of the 65% final (180 min + 15 reading; Casio FX82, your bring-in A4, and the provided formula sheet). Because the sheet gives every formula, you lose marks only by choosing the wrong model. The two switches: (1) how does leverage behave? - constant ratio-Standard, dollar schedule-Vanilla, changing ratio / changing k -Recursive; (2) ITS risk? - rebalance-to-ratio -> knan=k , fixed schedule -> knon=kn. Past papers: equity from a vanilla EV (2022 Q1), back-out the ITS (2023 Q5), and the recursive value (2025/2023/2021 Q1) on page 3. Class 4 是这场 65% 期末考 的引擎室(180分钟+15 分钟阅读;Casio FX82、你可带入的A4纸,以及 提供的公式 表)。因为公式表给出了每一个公式,所以你只会因 选错模型 而丢分。两个开关:(1)杠杆如何表现 ?-- 恒定比率 →Standard,美元排程→Vanilla,变动比率/变动k→递归;(2) ITS 风险 ?-- 再平衡到比率→ Kn on = ka,固定排 程 → Kn on = kn。历年真题:从 vanilla EV 求股权(2022 Q1)、反推 ITS(2023 Q5),以及递归价值 (2025/2023/2021 Q1),见第3页。 4. 1 One picture decides the model 4. 1一张图决定模型 Every enterprise-DCF question in this subject is a fork. Read the financing policy, pick a branch, and the provided formula sheet does the rest. You will meet the right-hand branch in full on page 3. 本门课中每一道企业 DCF 题都是一个分叉。读懂融资政策、选一条分支,所提供的公式表会做完剩下的。你将在第3页完整 遇到右手那条分支。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG 4. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model-selector - the course's hook. Constant target ratio L (debt rebalanced to Dt=L . Vt) - Standard WACC. Fixed dollar debt schedule (L drifts) - Vanilla WACC, and if knon=ka then kn=ka. Changing ratio or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. The gold strip is the second switch: the risk of the interest tax shields . WACC 模型选择器 -- 这门课的钩子。Constant target ratio L(债务 rebalance 到 Dt=L· Vt)→ Standard WACC。 Fixed dollar debt schedule(L 漂移)→ Vanilla WACC,而如果 kn on=ka 则 kh=ka。 Changing ratio 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。金色那条带是第二个开关:ITS的风险。
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再问第二个问题:ITS(interest tax shield,利息税盾)的风险是谁的风险?
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如果是 rebalance to a ratio
- 税盾风险视为和经营风险一样
- $k_{its}=k_u$[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[9]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 This is the single most valuable page in the bible. The 65% written final (180 min + 15 min reading, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations) is decided question-by-question by this selector. The formula sheet is provided; a non-programmable Casio FX82 and one double-sided A4 of your own notes are your only aids - so your A4 must carry this decision logic, not the formulas. Mis-read the leverage switch and the provided sheet will not save you: you will discount a changing-leverage project at one ks (wrong) or grind a constant-ratio firm recursively (slow, error-prone). 这是整本 bible 里最有价值的一页。这场65% 的笔试 final(180 分钟+15分钟阅读时间,简答概念+计算,不考代数推 导)是靠这张选择器逐题决定的。formula sheet 是提供的;一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 和一张你自己的双面 A4 笔记是 你仅有的辅助 -- 所以你的A4 必须承载这套决策逻辑,而不是那些公式。看错杠杆的开关,提供的公式表也救不了你:你会 用一个(错的)single 去折现一个杠杆在变的项目,或者把一个 constant-ratio 公司递归地硬磨(慢、易错)。 s. 1 Switch 1 - how does leverage behave? S. 1开关 1 -- 杠杆如何变化? Read the stem for the shape of the debt. Three shapes, three models. The whole WACC family is one decision tree: 读题干找债务的形态。三种形态,三个模型。整个 WACC 家族就是一棵决策树: AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG S. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model selector. The root question is the shape of leverage; each branch fixes the model and the matched (cash-flow, rate) pair. The gold strip is the second switch - the risk of the interest tax shields. Memorise this picture; the formula sheet supplies the rest. WACC 模型选择器。根问题是杠杆的形态;每个分支确定模型和配对的(现金流、利率)组合。金色那条带是第二个开关 -- ITS 的风险。把这张图背下来;formula sheet 提供其余部分。[11]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfClass 4 is the engine room of the 65% final (180 min + 15 reading; Casio FX82, your bring-in A4, and the provided formula sheet). Because the sheet gives every formula, you lose marks only by choosing the wrong model. The two switches: (1) how does leverage behave? - constant ratio-Standard, dollar schedule-Vanilla, changing ratio / changing k -Recursive; (2) ITS risk? - rebalance-to-ratio -> knan=k , fixed schedule -> knon=kn. Past papers: equity from a vanilla EV (2022 Q1), back-out the ITS (2023 Q5), and the recursive value (2025/2023/2021 Q1) on page 3. Class 4 是这场 65% 期末考 的引擎室(180分钟+15 分钟阅读;Casio FX82、你可带入的A4纸,以及 提供的公式 表)。因为公式表给出了每一个公式,所以你只会因 选错模型 而丢分。两个开关:(1)杠杆如何表现 ?-- 恒定比率 →Standard,美元排程→Vanilla,变动比率/变动k→递归;(2) ITS 风险 ?-- 再平衡到比率→ Kn on = ka,固定排 程 → Kn on = kn。历年真题:从 vanilla EV 求股权(2022 Q1)、反推 ITS(2023 Q5),以及递归价值 (2025/2023/2021 Q1),见第3页。 4. 1 One picture decides the model 4. 1一张图决定模型 Every enterprise-DCF question in this subject is a fork. Read the financing policy, pick a branch, and the provided formula sheet does the rest. You will meet the right-hand branch in full on page 3. 本门课中每一道企业 DCF 题都是一个分叉。读懂融资政策、选一条分支,所提供的公式表会做完剩下的。你将在第3页完整 遇到右手那条分支。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG 4. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model-selector - the course's hook. Constant target ratio L (debt rebalanced to Dt=L . Vt) - Standard WACC. Fixed dollar debt schedule (L drifts) - Vanilla WACC, and if knon=ka then kn=ka. Changing ratio or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. The gold strip is the second switch: the risk of the interest tax shields . WACC 模型选择器 -- 这门课的钩子。Constant target ratio L(债务 rebalance 到 Dt=L· Vt)→ Standard WACC。 Fixed dollar debt schedule(L 漂移)→ Vanilla WACC,而如果 kn on=ka 则 kh=ka。 Changing ratio 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。金色那条带是第二个开关:ITS的风险。[13]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfIf the traded price were instead above $1,001. 05, flip it: short the coupon bond, buy the replicating zeros. The marks are in naming the buy/short legs and the locked-in number - never just "an arbitrage exists". 如果交易价格反而高于$1,001. 05,就反过来:卖空附息债券,买入用于复制的零息债券。分数在于点名买入/卖空的各腿以 及锁定的那个数 -- 绝不要只说“存在一个套利”。 ! Single yield # spot rates ¥- yield # spot rates Pricing a coupon bond at one flat yield when the term structure slopes is the classic error - discount each promised cash flow at its own matching spot rate. And never stop at "arbitrage exists": the question "what should you do?" wants the explicit buy / short trade and the riskless profit. 当 期限结构有斜率 时却按一个统一收益率为附息债券定价,是经典的错误 -- 要按每一笔承诺现金流 各自匹配的即期 利率 来折现。而且绝不要停在“存在套利”上:“你应该怎么做?”这个问题要的是明确的 买入/做空交易 以及 无风险利 润。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 10 回忆清单 -- 第 10类 · Arbitrage = zero cost, no loss, chance of gain; LOOP = same payoff -> same price - price(X) = price(replicating portfolio). I 套利= 零成本、无亏损、有获利机会;LOOP= 相同 payoff →相同价格 → price(X)= price(复制组合)。 I 例行流程:把 payoff 列表 → 找出折点(= option)→识别 strike、到期日 & 谁持有它→组装各腿→ 定价 & 求和。 · Convertible = straight bond + call: CBo = Bo + Co (issuer-callable -+ -Co). Risk-insensitive: bond leg down, call leg up. I Convertible = straight bond + call:(issuer-callable →)。对风险不敏感:bond 腿下降,call 腿上升。 I Bull-spread warrant = long call(低)+ zero - short call(高);需发行数量 = 募资额÷ warrant 价值。 · Bond arbitrage: bootstrap yt from zeros - re-price at spots - if mispriced, state the buy/short trade + the riskless profit. 债券套利:从 zeros bootstrap → 在 spots 重新定价→若定价错误,说明买入/卖空交易+无风险利润。 ● 套利=零成本、无损失、有获利机会;LOOP =相同回报→相同价格→ price(X)= price(复制组合)。 ● 流程:列出回报表 →找出折点(=期权)→确定行权价、到期日 &谁持有它→组装各条腿→定价并求和。 ● 可转债 =直债+看涨期权:CBo = Bo+Co(发行人可赎回→-Co)。对风险不敏感:债券腿下跌,看涨期权腿上 涨。 · 牛市价差认股权证= 多头看涨(低)+零 一空头看涨(高);要发行的数量=筹资额÷认股权证价值。 ● 债券套利:从零息债券 bootstrap 出 yt → 按即期利率重新定价→如果定价错误,说明买入/做空交易+无风险利 润。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR CLASSES 3-4 . THE BRING-IN-A4 CORE The model selector - pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet 模型选择器––在翻公式表之前先选好模型 Two switches decide every DCF question: leverage shape, then ITS risk 两个开关决定每道 DCF 题:杠杆形态,然后是 ITS 风险 TL;DR. The exam hands you the formula sheet, so the marks are not in recalling ks or ky - they are in choosing the right model and pairing the right cash flow with the right rate. Ask two questions, in order. (1) How does leverage behave? A constant target ratio - Standard WACC; a fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with k, = ku); a changing ratio or changing operating risk ku > Recursive Standard WACC. (2) How risky are the interest tax shields? Rebalance-to-ratio -> kits = ku; a fixed schedule ++ kits = kd. Get those two right and the sheet does the arithmetic. TL;DR。考试把公式表交给你,所以分数不在回忆 或 -- 而在选对模型并把对的现金流与对的率配对。按顺序问两个问题。(1) 杠杆如何变化?一个恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;一份固定美元债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(带);一个变动的比率或变 动的经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。(2)利息税盾有多大风险?再平衡到比率→;固定计划表→。把这两个弄对, 公式表会做算术。
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如果是 fixed debt schedule
- 税盾风险视为和债务一样
- $k_{its}=k_d$[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[9]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 This is the single most valuable page in the bible. The 65% written final (180 min + 15 min reading, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations) is decided question-by-question by this selector. The formula sheet is provided; a non-programmable Casio FX82 and one double-sided A4 of your own notes are your only aids - so your A4 must carry this decision logic, not the formulas. Mis-read the leverage switch and the provided sheet will not save you: you will discount a changing-leverage project at one ks (wrong) or grind a constant-ratio firm recursively (slow, error-prone). 这是整本 bible 里最有价值的一页。这场65% 的笔试 final(180 分钟+15分钟阅读时间,简答概念+计算,不考代数推 导)是靠这张选择器逐题决定的。formula sheet 是提供的;一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 和一张你自己的双面 A4 笔记是 你仅有的辅助 -- 所以你的A4 必须承载这套决策逻辑,而不是那些公式。看错杠杆的开关,提供的公式表也救不了你:你会 用一个(错的)single 去折现一个杠杆在变的项目,或者把一个 constant-ratio 公司递归地硬磨(慢、易错)。 s. 1 Switch 1 - how does leverage behave? S. 1开关 1 -- 杠杆如何变化? Read the stem for the shape of the debt. Three shapes, three models. The whole WACC family is one decision tree: 读题干找债务的形态。三种形态,三个模型。整个 WACC 家族就是一棵决策树: AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG S. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model selector. The root question is the shape of leverage; each branch fixes the model and the matched (cash-flow, rate) pair. The gold strip is the second switch - the risk of the interest tax shields. Memorise this picture; the formula sheet supplies the rest. WACC 模型选择器。根问题是杠杆的形态;每个分支确定模型和配对的(现金流、利率)组合。金色那条带是第二个开关 -- ITS 的风险。把这张图背下来;formula sheet 提供其余部分。[11]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfClass 4 is the engine room of the 65% final (180 min + 15 reading; Casio FX82, your bring-in A4, and the provided formula sheet). Because the sheet gives every formula, you lose marks only by choosing the wrong model. The two switches: (1) how does leverage behave? - constant ratio-Standard, dollar schedule-Vanilla, changing ratio / changing k -Recursive; (2) ITS risk? - rebalance-to-ratio -> knan=k , fixed schedule -> knon=kn. Past papers: equity from a vanilla EV (2022 Q1), back-out the ITS (2023 Q5), and the recursive value (2025/2023/2021 Q1) on page 3. Class 4 是这场 65% 期末考 的引擎室(180分钟+15 分钟阅读;Casio FX82、你可带入的A4纸,以及 提供的公式 表)。因为公式表给出了每一个公式,所以你只会因 选错模型 而丢分。两个开关:(1)杠杆如何表现 ?-- 恒定比率 →Standard,美元排程→Vanilla,变动比率/变动k→递归;(2) ITS 风险 ?-- 再平衡到比率→ Kn on = ka,固定排 程 → Kn on = kn。历年真题:从 vanilla EV 求股权(2022 Q1)、反推 ITS(2023 Q5),以及递归价值 (2025/2023/2021 Q1),见第3页。 4. 1 One picture decides the model 4. 1一张图决定模型 Every enterprise-DCF question in this subject is a fork. Read the financing policy, pick a branch, and the provided formula sheet does the rest. You will meet the right-hand branch in full on page 3. 本门课中每一道企业 DCF 题都是一个分叉。读懂融资政策、选一条分支,所提供的公式表会做完剩下的。你将在第3页完整 遇到右手那条分支。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG 4. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model-selector - the course's hook. Constant target ratio L (debt rebalanced to Dt=L . Vt) - Standard WACC. Fixed dollar debt schedule (L drifts) - Vanilla WACC, and if knon=ka then kn=ka. Changing ratio or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. The gold strip is the second switch: the risk of the interest tax shields . WACC 模型选择器 -- 这门课的钩子。Constant target ratio L(债务 rebalance 到 Dt=L· Vt)→ Standard WACC。 Fixed dollar debt schedule(L 漂移)→ Vanilla WACC,而如果 kn on=ka 则 kh=ka。 Changing ratio 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。金色那条带是第二个开关:ITS的风险。[13]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfIf the traded price were instead above $1,001. 05, flip it: short the coupon bond, buy the replicating zeros. The marks are in naming the buy/short legs and the locked-in number - never just "an arbitrage exists". 如果交易价格反而高于$1,001. 05,就反过来:卖空附息债券,买入用于复制的零息债券。分数在于点名买入/卖空的各腿以 及锁定的那个数 -- 绝不要只说“存在一个套利”。 ! Single yield # spot rates ¥- yield # spot rates Pricing a coupon bond at one flat yield when the term structure slopes is the classic error - discount each promised cash flow at its own matching spot rate. And never stop at "arbitrage exists": the question "what should you do?" wants the explicit buy / short trade and the riskless profit. 当 期限结构有斜率 时却按一个统一收益率为附息债券定价,是经典的错误 -- 要按每一笔承诺现金流 各自匹配的即期 利率 来折现。而且绝不要停在“存在套利”上:“你应该怎么做?”这个问题要的是明确的 买入/做空交易 以及 无风险利 润。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 10 回忆清单 -- 第 10类 · Arbitrage = zero cost, no loss, chance of gain; LOOP = same payoff -> same price - price(X) = price(replicating portfolio). I 套利= 零成本、无亏损、有获利机会;LOOP= 相同 payoff →相同价格 → price(X)= price(复制组合)。 I 例行流程:把 payoff 列表 → 找出折点(= option)→识别 strike、到期日 & 谁持有它→组装各腿→ 定价 & 求和。 · Convertible = straight bond + call: CBo = Bo + Co (issuer-callable -+ -Co). Risk-insensitive: bond leg down, call leg up. I Convertible = straight bond + call:(issuer-callable →)。对风险不敏感:bond 腿下降,call 腿上升。 I Bull-spread warrant = long call(低)+ zero - short call(高);需发行数量 = 募资额÷ warrant 价值。 · Bond arbitrage: bootstrap yt from zeros - re-price at spots - if mispriced, state the buy/short trade + the riskless profit. 债券套利:从 zeros bootstrap → 在 spots 重新定价→若定价错误,说明买入/卖空交易+无风险利润。 ● 套利=零成本、无损失、有获利机会;LOOP =相同回报→相同价格→ price(X)= price(复制组合)。 ● 流程:列出回报表 →找出折点(=期权)→确定行权价、到期日 &谁持有它→组装各条腿→定价并求和。 ● 可转债 =直债+看涨期权:CBo = Bo+Co(发行人可赎回→-Co)。对风险不敏感:债券腿下跌,看涨期权腿上 涨。 · 牛市价差认股权证= 多头看涨(低)+零 一空头看涨(高);要发行的数量=筹资额÷认股权证价值。 ● 债券套利:从零息债券 bootstrap 出 yt → 按即期利率重新定价→如果定价错误,说明买入/做空交易+无风险利 润。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR CLASSES 3-4 . THE BRING-IN-A4 CORE The model selector - pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet 模型选择器––在翻公式表之前先选好模型 Two switches decide every DCF question: leverage shape, then ITS risk 两个开关决定每道 DCF 题:杠杆形态,然后是 ITS 风险 TL;DR. The exam hands you the formula sheet, so the marks are not in recalling ks or ky - they are in choosing the right model and pairing the right cash flow with the right rate. Ask two questions, in order. (1) How does leverage behave? A constant target ratio - Standard WACC; a fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with k, = ku); a changing ratio or changing operating risk ku > Recursive Standard WACC. (2) How risky are the interest tax shields? Rebalance-to-ratio -> kits = ku; a fixed schedule ++ kits = kd. Get those two right and the sheet does the arithmetic. TL;DR。考试把公式表交给你,所以分数不在回忆 或 -- 而在选对模型并把对的现金流与对的率配对。按顺序问两个问题。(1) 杠杆如何变化?一个恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;一份固定美元债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(带);一个变动的比率或变 动的经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。(2)利息税盾有多大风险?再平衡到比率→;固定计划表→。把这两个弄对, 公式表会做算术。
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你必须会用一句话快速判断
- 恒定目标杠杆比率 → Standard WACC
- 固定债务金额路径 → Vanilla WACC
- 杠杆/经营风险逐年变化 → Recursive Standard WACC[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制[9]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 This is the single most valuable page in the bible. The 65% written final (180 min + 15 min reading, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations) is decided question-by-question by this selector. The formula sheet is provided; a non-programmable Casio FX82 and one double-sided A4 of your own notes are your only aids - so your A4 must carry this decision logic, not the formulas. Mis-read the leverage switch and the provided sheet will not save you: you will discount a changing-leverage project at one ks (wrong) or grind a constant-ratio firm recursively (slow, error-prone). 这是整本 bible 里最有价值的一页。这场65% 的笔试 final(180 分钟+15分钟阅读时间,简答概念+计算,不考代数推 导)是靠这张选择器逐题决定的。formula sheet 是提供的;一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 和一张你自己的双面 A4 笔记是 你仅有的辅助 -- 所以你的A4 必须承载这套决策逻辑,而不是那些公式。看错杠杆的开关,提供的公式表也救不了你:你会 用一个(错的)single 去折现一个杠杆在变的项目,或者把一个 constant-ratio 公司递归地硬磨(慢、易错)。 s. 1 Switch 1 - how does leverage behave? S. 1开关 1 -- 杠杆如何变化? Read the stem for the shape of the debt. Three shapes, three models. The whole WACC family is one decision tree: 读题干找债务的形态。三种形态,三个模型。整个 WACC 家族就是一棵决策树: AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG S. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model selector. The root question is the shape of leverage; each branch fixes the model and the matched (cash-flow, rate) pair. The gold strip is the second switch - the risk of the interest tax shields. Memorise this picture; the formula sheet supplies the rest. WACC 模型选择器。根问题是杠杆的形态;每个分支确定模型和配对的(现金流、利率)组合。金色那条带是第二个开关 -- ITS 的风险。把这张图背下来;formula sheet 提供其余部分。
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五、四组“现金流—折现率”黄金配对
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这是全课第一核心。
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配对 1:Unlevered FCF 配 Standard WACC
- FCFU ↔ $k_s$
- 逻辑:
- 无杠杆 FCF 已经把税盾从现金流中剥掉
- 所以要配对应的 Standard WACC[5]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf上面每一行底下都坐着一条规则:折现率必须匹配现金流的风险与时间,以及它被定义的基准。配错了,所提供的公式表就会算出 一个毫无意义的数。把这四对操练到成为条件反射。 Cash flow Pairs with rate Because FCFU - unlevered, no ITS ks (Standard WACC) ITS stripped from BOTH sides FCF - all investors, contains ITS ky (Vanilla WACC) ITS lives in the cash flow FCFE - equity residual ke (FCFE model / DDM) equity cash +> equity rate FCFU + ITS separately ku & kits (APV) operations + financing split ✓ Name the type out loud, then commit 大声说出题型,然后下定决心 In the 15-minute reading time, write the type name beside each question ("recursive", "de-lever beta", "convertible" . . . ). That one label triggers the model, the matched pair and the first three steps from this grid - before the clock on the 180 minutes really starts. 在 15 分钟阅读时间里,在每道题旁写上类型名("recursive”、“de-lever beta"、"convertible" . . . )。那一个标签就触发 了模型、配对组合,以及这张网格里的前三步 -- 在180 分钟的钟真正开始走之前。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR - EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM-CONDITIONS: ONE DOUBLE-SIDED A4 + CASIO FX82 Your bring-in A4 - method & decision logic, not formulas 你带入的 A4 -- 方法与决策逻辑,而非公式 Six zones, a 180-minute triage, and the selector you must draw from memory 六个区域、一份180分钟分诊计划,以及你必须凭记忆画出的选择器 TL;DR. You may bring one double-sided A4 of your own notes and a non-programmable Casio FX82 (the FX-8200 is not permitted); the formula sheet is provided inside the exam (you may ignore the imputation formulae). So do not waste the A4 on formulas you will already be given - fill it with decision logic, worked-step templates and traps. Below is a six-zone layout that mirrors the decoder. TL;DR。你可以带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记和一台不可编程的 Casio FX82(FX-8200 不允许);公式表在考试中提供(你可以 忽略 imputation 公式)。所以不要把A4 浪费在你已经会被给到的公式上 -- 用决策逻辑、分步模板和陷阱把它填满。下面是 一个映射解码器的六区域版式。 i Honour the exam conditions exactly 严格遵守考试条件 Bring-in (one A4 of your own notes) + a provided formula sheet - this is neither closed nor fully open book. Raw formulas are supplied, so they earn you nothing on the A4. Your edge is knowing which model to use and executing it cleanly under time pressure.[6]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfTL;DR. The exam gives you the formula sheet, so marks are won on knowing which model a cue points to, not on recall. This bank pairs every term with its +X and a one-line meaning written as a trigger - read the right-hand column as "the moment I see this, I reach for that. " Use it to translate a question stem into a model in the 15-minute reading time. TL;DR。考试把公式表给你,所以分数赢在知道一个线索指向哪个模型,而非默写。这个库把每个术语与它的中文及一行式含义 配对,后者写成一个触发器 -- 把右栏读作“我一看到这个,就去拿那个。”用它在15分钟阅读时间里把一个题干翻译成一个模 型。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 These terms are the vocabulary of the 65% final (180 min + 15 min reading; bring-in A4 + a provided formula sheet). The exam tests concepts and calculations, no algebraic derivations - so the graded skill is choosing the right (cash-flow, discount-rate) pair from a cue. Examined scope = Classes 2-10; Class 1 Framework, Workshop 6 Part B and Class 11 Imputation are not examinable. 这些术语是65% final(180 分钟+15 分钟阅读;bring-in A4+一张提供的 formula sheet)的词汇表。这场考试考概念和 计算,不考代数推导 -- 所以打分的技能是从一条线索里选出对的(现金流、折现率)配对。考查范围= Class 2-10;Class 1 Framework、Workshop 6 Part B 和 Class 11 Imputation 不考。 Term (EN) 中文 One-line meaning (method & when to use) Cash flows & DCF foundations (W2) Free cash flow (FCF) 自由现金流 EBIT + DEP - CAPEX - AWC - tax; cash to all investors and it already contains the interest tax shield. Unlevered FCF (FCFU) 无杠杆自由现 金流 FCF with the ITS stripped out (FCF - Y. T) - the cash an all-equity firm makes; pair it with ks. FCFE (FCF to equity) 股权自由现金 流 Residual to shareholders after interest and net principal; discount at ke to value equity directly. Interest tax shield (ITS) 利息税盾 Y. T - tax saved because interest is deductible; its risk (ky vs kd) is the switch behind every WACC. Dividend discount model (DDM) 股利折现模型 Value equity off dividends, not FCFE; needs a surplus-cash / surplus-liability fix whenever dividend # FCFE. Gordon / constant- growth 戈登(固定增 长) 模型 D1+(ke-g); valid only when ke > g - the steady-state shortcut for a perpetuity. Perpetuity / growing perpetuity 永续年金/增 长永续 C+r and C1+(r-g); the value sits at time t, one period before the first cash flow.[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制
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配对 2:FCF 配 Vanilla WACC
- FCF ↔ $k_v$
- 逻辑:
- FCF 是给所有投资者的现金流
- 其中已经包含 ITS
- 所以用 Vanilla WACC[5]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf上面每一行底下都坐着一条规则:折现率必须匹配现金流的风险与时间,以及它被定义的基准。配错了,所提供的公式表就会算出 一个毫无意义的数。把这四对操练到成为条件反射。 Cash flow Pairs with rate Because FCFU - unlevered, no ITS ks (Standard WACC) ITS stripped from BOTH sides FCF - all investors, contains ITS ky (Vanilla WACC) ITS lives in the cash flow FCFE - equity residual ke (FCFE model / DDM) equity cash +> equity rate FCFU + ITS separately ku & kits (APV) operations + financing split ✓ Name the type out loud, then commit 大声说出题型,然后下定决心 In the 15-minute reading time, write the type name beside each question ("recursive", "de-lever beta", "convertible" . . . ). That one label triggers the model, the matched pair and the first three steps from this grid - before the clock on the 180 minutes really starts. 在 15 分钟阅读时间里,在每道题旁写上类型名("recursive”、“de-lever beta"、"convertible" . . . )。那一个标签就触发 了模型、配对组合,以及这张网格里的前三步 -- 在180 分钟的钟真正开始走之前。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR - EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM-CONDITIONS: ONE DOUBLE-SIDED A4 + CASIO FX82 Your bring-in A4 - method & decision logic, not formulas 你带入的 A4 -- 方法与决策逻辑,而非公式 Six zones, a 180-minute triage, and the selector you must draw from memory 六个区域、一份180分钟分诊计划,以及你必须凭记忆画出的选择器 TL;DR. You may bring one double-sided A4 of your own notes and a non-programmable Casio FX82 (the FX-8200 is not permitted); the formula sheet is provided inside the exam (you may ignore the imputation formulae). So do not waste the A4 on formulas you will already be given - fill it with decision logic, worked-step templates and traps. Below is a six-zone layout that mirrors the decoder. TL;DR。你可以带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记和一台不可编程的 Casio FX82(FX-8200 不允许);公式表在考试中提供(你可以 忽略 imputation 公式)。所以不要把A4 浪费在你已经会被给到的公式上 -- 用决策逻辑、分步模板和陷阱把它填满。下面是 一个映射解码器的六区域版式。 i Honour the exam conditions exactly 严格遵守考试条件 Bring-in (one A4 of your own notes) + a provided formula sheet - this is neither closed nor fully open book. Raw formulas are supplied, so they earn you nothing on the A4. Your edge is knowing which model to use and executing it cleanly under time pressure.[6]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfTL;DR. The exam gives you the formula sheet, so marks are won on knowing which model a cue points to, not on recall. This bank pairs every term with its +X and a one-line meaning written as a trigger - read the right-hand column as "the moment I see this, I reach for that. " Use it to translate a question stem into a model in the 15-minute reading time. TL;DR。考试把公式表给你,所以分数赢在知道一个线索指向哪个模型,而非默写。这个库把每个术语与它的中文及一行式含义 配对,后者写成一个触发器 -- 把右栏读作“我一看到这个,就去拿那个。”用它在15分钟阅读时间里把一个题干翻译成一个模 型。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 These terms are the vocabulary of the 65% final (180 min + 15 min reading; bring-in A4 + a provided formula sheet). The exam tests concepts and calculations, no algebraic derivations - so the graded skill is choosing the right (cash-flow, discount-rate) pair from a cue. Examined scope = Classes 2-10; Class 1 Framework, Workshop 6 Part B and Class 11 Imputation are not examinable. 这些术语是65% final(180 分钟+15 分钟阅读;bring-in A4+一张提供的 formula sheet)的词汇表。这场考试考概念和 计算,不考代数推导 -- 所以打分的技能是从一条线索里选出对的(现金流、折现率)配对。考查范围= Class 2-10;Class 1 Framework、Workshop 6 Part B 和 Class 11 Imputation 不考。 Term (EN) 中文 One-line meaning (method & when to use) Cash flows & DCF foundations (W2) Free cash flow (FCF) 自由现金流 EBIT + DEP - CAPEX - AWC - tax; cash to all investors and it already contains the interest tax shield. Unlevered FCF (FCFU) 无杠杆自由现 金流 FCF with the ITS stripped out (FCF - Y. T) - the cash an all-equity firm makes; pair it with ks. FCFE (FCF to equity) 股权自由现金 流 Residual to shareholders after interest and net principal; discount at ke to value equity directly. Interest tax shield (ITS) 利息税盾 Y. T - tax saved because interest is deductible; its risk (ky vs kd) is the switch behind every WACC. Dividend discount model (DDM) 股利折现模型 Value equity off dividends, not FCFE; needs a surplus-cash / surplus-liability fix whenever dividend # FCFE. Gordon / constant- growth 戈登(固定增 长) 模型 D1+(ke-g); valid only when ke > g - the steady-state shortcut for a perpetuity. Perpetuity / growing perpetuity 永续年金/增 长永续 C+r and C1+(r-g); the value sits at time t, one period before the first cash flow.
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配对 3:FCFE 配股权成本
- FCFE ↔ $k_e$
- 逻辑:
- FCFE 是股东剩余现金流
- 所以必须用股权回报率折现[5]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf上面每一行底下都坐着一条规则:折现率必须匹配现金流的风险与时间,以及它被定义的基准。配错了,所提供的公式表就会算出 一个毫无意义的数。把这四对操练到成为条件反射。 Cash flow Pairs with rate Because FCFU - unlevered, no ITS ks (Standard WACC) ITS stripped from BOTH sides FCF - all investors, contains ITS ky (Vanilla WACC) ITS lives in the cash flow FCFE - equity residual ke (FCFE model / DDM) equity cash +> equity rate FCFU + ITS separately ku & kits (APV) operations + financing split ✓ Name the type out loud, then commit 大声说出题型,然后下定决心 In the 15-minute reading time, write the type name beside each question ("recursive", "de-lever beta", "convertible" . . . ). That one label triggers the model, the matched pair and the first three steps from this grid - before the clock on the 180 minutes really starts. 在 15 分钟阅读时间里,在每道题旁写上类型名("recursive”、“de-lever beta"、"convertible" . . . )。那一个标签就触发 了模型、配对组合,以及这张网格里的前三步 -- 在180 分钟的钟真正开始走之前。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR - EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM-CONDITIONS: ONE DOUBLE-SIDED A4 + CASIO FX82 Your bring-in A4 - method & decision logic, not formulas 你带入的 A4 -- 方法与决策逻辑,而非公式 Six zones, a 180-minute triage, and the selector you must draw from memory 六个区域、一份180分钟分诊计划,以及你必须凭记忆画出的选择器 TL;DR. You may bring one double-sided A4 of your own notes and a non-programmable Casio FX82 (the FX-8200 is not permitted); the formula sheet is provided inside the exam (you may ignore the imputation formulae). So do not waste the A4 on formulas you will already be given - fill it with decision logic, worked-step templates and traps. Below is a six-zone layout that mirrors the decoder. TL;DR。你可以带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记和一台不可编程的 Casio FX82(FX-8200 不允许);公式表在考试中提供(你可以 忽略 imputation 公式)。所以不要把A4 浪费在你已经会被给到的公式上 -- 用决策逻辑、分步模板和陷阱把它填满。下面是 一个映射解码器的六区域版式。 i Honour the exam conditions exactly 严格遵守考试条件 Bring-in (one A4 of your own notes) + a provided formula sheet - this is neither closed nor fully open book. Raw formulas are supplied, so they earn you nothing on the A4. Your edge is knowing which model to use and executing it cleanly under time pressure.[6]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfTL;DR. The exam gives you the formula sheet, so marks are won on knowing which model a cue points to, not on recall. This bank pairs every term with its +X and a one-line meaning written as a trigger - read the right-hand column as "the moment I see this, I reach for that. " Use it to translate a question stem into a model in the 15-minute reading time. TL;DR。考试把公式表给你,所以分数赢在知道一个线索指向哪个模型,而非默写。这个库把每个术语与它的中文及一行式含义 配对,后者写成一个触发器 -- 把右栏读作“我一看到这个,就去拿那个。”用它在15分钟阅读时间里把一个题干翻译成一个模 型。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 These terms are the vocabulary of the 65% final (180 min + 15 min reading; bring-in A4 + a provided formula sheet). The exam tests concepts and calculations, no algebraic derivations - so the graded skill is choosing the right (cash-flow, discount-rate) pair from a cue. Examined scope = Classes 2-10; Class 1 Framework, Workshop 6 Part B and Class 11 Imputation are not examinable. 这些术语是65% final(180 分钟+15 分钟阅读;bring-in A4+一张提供的 formula sheet)的词汇表。这场考试考概念和 计算,不考代数推导 -- 所以打分的技能是从一条线索里选出对的(现金流、折现率)配对。考查范围= Class 2-10;Class 1 Framework、Workshop 6 Part B 和 Class 11 Imputation 不考。 Term (EN) 中文 One-line meaning (method & when to use) Cash flows & DCF foundations (W2) Free cash flow (FCF) 自由现金流 EBIT + DEP - CAPEX - AWC - tax; cash to all investors and it already contains the interest tax shield. Unlevered FCF (FCFU) 无杠杆自由现 金流 FCF with the ITS stripped out (FCF - Y. T) - the cash an all-equity firm makes; pair it with ks. FCFE (FCF to equity) 股权自由现金 流 Residual to shareholders after interest and net principal; discount at ke to value equity directly. Interest tax shield (ITS) 利息税盾 Y. T - tax saved because interest is deductible; its risk (ky vs kd) is the switch behind every WACC. Dividend discount model (DDM) 股利折现模型 Value equity off dividends, not FCFE; needs a surplus-cash / surplus-liability fix whenever dividend # FCFE. Gordon / constant- growth 戈登(固定增 长) 模型 D1+(ke-g); valid only when ke > g - the steady-state shortcut for a perpetuity. Perpetuity / growing perpetuity 永续年金/增 长永续 C+r and C1+(r-g); the value sits at time t, one period before the first cash flow.[8]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfWalk in ready 10 The model selector the master decision tree . the 4 matching pairs . which method, when → 11 Glossary & formula map every term, one line each · bilingual . what each provided formula is for → 12 Practice bank & solutions the recurring exam templates (2020-2025 DNA) on our own firms → AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual i Why this order - and what is in / out of scope 为什么是这个顺序 -- 以及范围之内/之外是什么 The subject builds strictly. Part I sets the engine - equity DCF, then the enterprise DCF and the three WACC models that are the course's signature. Part II feeds the engine - estimate the discount rates (CAPM, beta levering, credit spreads) and handle the messy real-world items. Part III cross-checks and replaces the DCF where needed - multiples, where value comes from, and no-arbitrage valuation of hybrids. Examined scope = Classes 2-10. The Class 1 framework (takeovers, the 20% rule, Independent Expert Reports), Workshop 6 Part B (the integrated model) and Class 11 (imputation - you may ignore the imputation formulae on the provided sheet) are non-examinable and appear here only as context. 这门课严格地层层搭建。第一部分搭起引擎 -- 先是股权 DCF,然后是企业 DCF 以及作为本课招牌的三个 WACC 模 型。第二部分给引擎供料 -- 估计折现率(CAPM、beta 加杠杆、credit spread)并处理那些杂乱的现实世界项目。第三 部分交叉验证并在必要处替换 DCF -- 倍数、价值从何而来,以及混合工具的无套利估值。可考范围=第 2-10 课。第1 课框架(收购、20% 规则、独立专家报告)、Workshop 6 Part B(整合模型)与第 11课(imputation -- 你可以忽略所提供 公式表上的 imputation 公式)不可考,在此仅作为背景出现。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 2 . EQUITY DCF - CLASS 2 . EQUITY DCF W2 . THE BUILDING BLOCK Equity valuation by DCF & the four cash-flow measures 用 DCF 做股权估值与四种现金流口径 FCF, unlevered FCF and FCFE - one cascade, three answers FCF、无杠杆 FCF 与 FCFE -- 一条级联,三个答案 TL;DR. A DCF says value today = the present value of expected future cash flows discounted at a rate that reflects their risk. The trick of the whole course is choosing which cash flow and pairing it with the matching discount rate. Class 2 sets up the three cash-flow measures - FCF, unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCFE - and the equity models (FCFE model & DDM) you build on them. TL;DR。一个 DCF 说的是:今天的价值=预期未来现金流以反映其风险的折现率折现后的现值。整门课的诀窍在于选择哪一 种现金流,并把它与匹配的折现率配对。第2课搭起三种现金流口径 -- FCF、无杠杆 FCF()与 FCFE -- 以及建立在它们之 上的股权模型(FCFE 模型与 DDM)。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 2 is the foundation of the 65% bring-in-A4 final (3h + 15m, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations). The formula sheet is provided - so marks are won on which cash-flow measure to use and what discount rate it pairs with, never on recalling a formula. The examinable hooks: define and reconcile FCF vs FCFU vs FCFE, build FCF from a statement, value equity by the FCFE model and the DDM, and reconcile the two (next page). Put the cash-flow cascade and the four matched (cash-flow, rate) pairs on your A4. 第2 课是这场 65% 带入-A4 期末(3小时+15分钟,简答概念题+计算题,没有代数推导)的基础。公式表是提供的 - 所以分数赢在用哪种现金流口径以及它配什么折现率,绝不在回忆一个公式。可考的挂钩:界定并对账 FCF vs FCFU vs FCFE、从一张报表搭出 FCF、用 FCFE 模型和 DDM 给股权估值,并对账两者(下一页)。把现金流级联和那四对匹配的 (现金流,率)组合放上你的A4。 2. 1 The DCF idea & its three pillars 2. 1DCF 的理念及其三大支柱 Value is forward-looking and additive: 价值是前瞻的且可加的: Vo => T (1 + r){ Ct t=1 Three pillars justify the discounting. Time value of money - a safe dollar now beats a safe dollar later. Risk aversion - a safe dollar later beats a risky one, so a risk premium is added to r. Value additivity - the PV of a sum equals the sum of the PVs, which lets us value each surplus asset, claim and cash stream separately then add them.
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配对 4:APV 分拆法
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你一定要记住的铁律
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六、Class 2 核心:三种现金流口径
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1)FCF
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2)FCFU
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3)FCFE
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这块考试怎么考
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七、股权估值两条线:FCFE model 与 DDM
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1)FCFE model
- 用 FCFE 直接估 equity
- 配 $k_e$ 折现[6]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfTL;DR. The exam gives you the formula sheet, so marks are won on knowing which model a cue points to, not on recall. This bank pairs every term with its +X and a one-line meaning written as a trigger - read the right-hand column as "the moment I see this, I reach for that. " Use it to translate a question stem into a model in the 15-minute reading time. TL;DR。考试把公式表给你,所以分数赢在知道一个线索指向哪个模型,而非默写。这个库把每个术语与它的中文及一行式含义 配对,后者写成一个触发器 -- 把右栏读作“我一看到这个,就去拿那个。”用它在15分钟阅读时间里把一个题干翻译成一个模 型。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 These terms are the vocabulary of the 65% final (180 min + 15 min reading; bring-in A4 + a provided formula sheet). The exam tests concepts and calculations, no algebraic derivations - so the graded skill is choosing the right (cash-flow, discount-rate) pair from a cue. Examined scope = Classes 2-10; Class 1 Framework, Workshop 6 Part B and Class 11 Imputation are not examinable. 这些术语是65% final(180 分钟+15 分钟阅读;bring-in A4+一张提供的 formula sheet)的词汇表。这场考试考概念和 计算,不考代数推导 -- 所以打分的技能是从一条线索里选出对的(现金流、折现率)配对。考查范围= Class 2-10;Class 1 Framework、Workshop 6 Part B 和 Class 11 Imputation 不考。 Term (EN) 中文 One-line meaning (method & when to use) Cash flows & DCF foundations (W2) Free cash flow (FCF) 自由现金流 EBIT + DEP - CAPEX - AWC - tax; cash to all investors and it already contains the interest tax shield. Unlevered FCF (FCFU) 无杠杆自由现 金流 FCF with the ITS stripped out (FCF - Y. T) - the cash an all-equity firm makes; pair it with ks. FCFE (FCF to equity) 股权自由现金 流 Residual to shareholders after interest and net principal; discount at ke to value equity directly. Interest tax shield (ITS) 利息税盾 Y. T - tax saved because interest is deductible; its risk (ky vs kd) is the switch behind every WACC. Dividend discount model (DDM) 股利折现模型 Value equity off dividends, not FCFE; needs a surplus-cash / surplus-liability fix whenever dividend # FCFE. Gordon / constant- growth 戈登(固定增 长) 模型 D1+(ke-g); valid only when ke > g - the steady-state shortcut for a perpetuity. Perpetuity / growing perpetuity 永续年金/增 长永续 C+r and C1+(r-g); the value sits at time t, one period before the first cash flow.[8]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfWalk in ready 10 The model selector the master decision tree . the 4 matching pairs . which method, when → 11 Glossary & formula map every term, one line each · bilingual . what each provided formula is for → 12 Practice bank & solutions the recurring exam templates (2020-2025 DNA) on our own firms → AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual i Why this order - and what is in / out of scope 为什么是这个顺序 -- 以及范围之内/之外是什么 The subject builds strictly. Part I sets the engine - equity DCF, then the enterprise DCF and the three WACC models that are the course's signature. Part II feeds the engine - estimate the discount rates (CAPM, beta levering, credit spreads) and handle the messy real-world items. Part III cross-checks and replaces the DCF where needed - multiples, where value comes from, and no-arbitrage valuation of hybrids. Examined scope = Classes 2-10. The Class 1 framework (takeovers, the 20% rule, Independent Expert Reports), Workshop 6 Part B (the integrated model) and Class 11 (imputation - you may ignore the imputation formulae on the provided sheet) are non-examinable and appear here only as context. 这门课严格地层层搭建。第一部分搭起引擎 -- 先是股权 DCF,然后是企业 DCF 以及作为本课招牌的三个 WACC 模 型。第二部分给引擎供料 -- 估计折现率(CAPM、beta 加杠杆、credit spread)并处理那些杂乱的现实世界项目。第三 部分交叉验证并在必要处替换 DCF -- 倍数、价值从何而来,以及混合工具的无套利估值。可考范围=第 2-10 课。第1 课框架(收购、20% 规则、独立专家报告)、Workshop 6 Part B(整合模型)与第 11课(imputation -- 你可以忽略所提供 公式表上的 imputation 公式)不可考,在此仅作为背景出现。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 2 . EQUITY DCF - CLASS 2 . EQUITY DCF W2 . THE BUILDING BLOCK Equity valuation by DCF & the four cash-flow measures 用 DCF 做股权估值与四种现金流口径 FCF, unlevered FCF and FCFE - one cascade, three answers FCF、无杠杆 FCF 与 FCFE -- 一条级联,三个答案 TL;DR. A DCF says value today = the present value of expected future cash flows discounted at a rate that reflects their risk. The trick of the whole course is choosing which cash flow and pairing it with the matching discount rate. Class 2 sets up the three cash-flow measures - FCF, unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCFE - and the equity models (FCFE model & DDM) you build on them. TL;DR。一个 DCF 说的是:今天的价值=预期未来现金流以反映其风险的折现率折现后的现值。整门课的诀窍在于选择哪一 种现金流,并把它与匹配的折现率配对。第2课搭起三种现金流口径 -- FCF、无杠杆 FCF()与 FCFE -- 以及建立在它们之 上的股权模型(FCFE 模型与 DDM)。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 2 is the foundation of the 65% bring-in-A4 final (3h + 15m, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations). The formula sheet is provided - so marks are won on which cash-flow measure to use and what discount rate it pairs with, never on recalling a formula. The examinable hooks: define and reconcile FCF vs FCFU vs FCFE, build FCF from a statement, value equity by the FCFE model and the DDM, and reconcile the two (next page). Put the cash-flow cascade and the four matched (cash-flow, rate) pairs on your A4. 第2 课是这场 65% 带入-A4 期末(3小时+15分钟,简答概念题+计算题,没有代数推导)的基础。公式表是提供的 - 所以分数赢在用哪种现金流口径以及它配什么折现率,绝不在回忆一个公式。可考的挂钩:界定并对账 FCF vs FCFU vs FCFE、从一张报表搭出 FCF、用 FCFE 模型和 DDM 给股权估值,并对账两者(下一页)。把现金流级联和那四对匹配的 (现金流,率)组合放上你的A4。 2. 1 The DCF idea & its three pillars 2. 1DCF 的理念及其三大支柱 Value is forward-looking and additive: 价值是前瞻的且可加的: Vo => T (1 + r){ Ct t=1 Three pillars justify the discounting. Time value of money - a safe dollar now beats a safe dollar later. Risk aversion - a safe dollar later beats a risky one, so a risk premium is added to r. Value additivity - the PV of a sum equals the sum of the PVs, which lets us value each surplus asset, claim and cash stream separately then add them.
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2)DDM
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3)Gordon constant-growth model
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4)永续增长公式
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这块常考概念
- 为什么 DDM 和 FCFE 有时不一样
- 什么情况下需要修正
- constant-growth 条件是什么[6]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfTL;DR. The exam gives you the formula sheet, so marks are won on knowing which model a cue points to, not on recall. This bank pairs every term with its +X and a one-line meaning written as a trigger - read the right-hand column as "the moment I see this, I reach for that. " Use it to translate a question stem into a model in the 15-minute reading time. TL;DR。考试把公式表给你,所以分数赢在知道一个线索指向哪个模型,而非默写。这个库把每个术语与它的中文及一行式含义 配对,后者写成一个触发器 -- 把右栏读作“我一看到这个,就去拿那个。”用它在15分钟阅读时间里把一个题干翻译成一个模 型。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 These terms are the vocabulary of the 65% final (180 min + 15 min reading; bring-in A4 + a provided formula sheet). The exam tests concepts and calculations, no algebraic derivations - so the graded skill is choosing the right (cash-flow, discount-rate) pair from a cue. Examined scope = Classes 2-10; Class 1 Framework, Workshop 6 Part B and Class 11 Imputation are not examinable. 这些术语是65% final(180 分钟+15 分钟阅读;bring-in A4+一张提供的 formula sheet)的词汇表。这场考试考概念和 计算,不考代数推导 -- 所以打分的技能是从一条线索里选出对的(现金流、折现率)配对。考查范围= Class 2-10;Class 1 Framework、Workshop 6 Part B 和 Class 11 Imputation 不考。 Term (EN) 中文 One-line meaning (method & when to use) Cash flows & DCF foundations (W2) Free cash flow (FCF) 自由现金流 EBIT + DEP - CAPEX - AWC - tax; cash to all investors and it already contains the interest tax shield. Unlevered FCF (FCFU) 无杠杆自由现 金流 FCF with the ITS stripped out (FCF - Y. T) - the cash an all-equity firm makes; pair it with ks. FCFE (FCF to equity) 股权自由现金 流 Residual to shareholders after interest and net principal; discount at ke to value equity directly. Interest tax shield (ITS) 利息税盾 Y. T - tax saved because interest is deductible; its risk (ky vs kd) is the switch behind every WACC. Dividend discount model (DDM) 股利折现模型 Value equity off dividends, not FCFE; needs a surplus-cash / surplus-liability fix whenever dividend # FCFE. Gordon / constant- growth 戈登(固定增 长) 模型 D1+(ke-g); valid only when ke > g - the steady-state shortcut for a perpetuity. Perpetuity / growing perpetuity 永续年金/增 长永续 C+r and C1+(r-g); the value sits at time t, one period before the first cash flow.[8]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfWalk in ready 10 The model selector the master decision tree . the 4 matching pairs . which method, when → 11 Glossary & formula map every term, one line each · bilingual . what each provided formula is for → 12 Practice bank & solutions the recurring exam templates (2020-2025 DNA) on our own firms → AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual i Why this order - and what is in / out of scope 为什么是这个顺序 -- 以及范围之内/之外是什么 The subject builds strictly. Part I sets the engine - equity DCF, then the enterprise DCF and the three WACC models that are the course's signature. Part II feeds the engine - estimate the discount rates (CAPM, beta levering, credit spreads) and handle the messy real-world items. Part III cross-checks and replaces the DCF where needed - multiples, where value comes from, and no-arbitrage valuation of hybrids. Examined scope = Classes 2-10. The Class 1 framework (takeovers, the 20% rule, Independent Expert Reports), Workshop 6 Part B (the integrated model) and Class 11 (imputation - you may ignore the imputation formulae on the provided sheet) are non-examinable and appear here only as context. 这门课严格地层层搭建。第一部分搭起引擎 -- 先是股权 DCF,然后是企业 DCF 以及作为本课招牌的三个 WACC 模 型。第二部分给引擎供料 -- 估计折现率(CAPM、beta 加杠杆、credit spread)并处理那些杂乱的现实世界项目。第三 部分交叉验证并在必要处替换 DCF -- 倍数、价值从何而来,以及混合工具的无套利估值。可考范围=第 2-10 课。第1 课框架(收购、20% 规则、独立专家报告)、Workshop 6 Part B(整合模型)与第 11课(imputation -- 你可以忽略所提供 公式表上的 imputation 公式)不可考,在此仅作为背景出现。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 2 . EQUITY DCF - CLASS 2 . EQUITY DCF W2 . THE BUILDING BLOCK Equity valuation by DCF & the four cash-flow measures 用 DCF 做股权估值与四种现金流口径 FCF, unlevered FCF and FCFE - one cascade, three answers FCF、无杠杆 FCF 与 FCFE -- 一条级联,三个答案 TL;DR. A DCF says value today = the present value of expected future cash flows discounted at a rate that reflects their risk. The trick of the whole course is choosing which cash flow and pairing it with the matching discount rate. Class 2 sets up the three cash-flow measures - FCF, unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCFE - and the equity models (FCFE model & DDM) you build on them. TL;DR。一个 DCF 说的是:今天的价值=预期未来现金流以反映其风险的折现率折现后的现值。整门课的诀窍在于选择哪一 种现金流,并把它与匹配的折现率配对。第2课搭起三种现金流口径 -- FCF、无杠杆 FCF()与 FCFE -- 以及建立在它们之 上的股权模型(FCFE 模型与 DDM)。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 2 is the foundation of the 65% bring-in-A4 final (3h + 15m, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations). The formula sheet is provided - so marks are won on which cash-flow measure to use and what discount rate it pairs with, never on recalling a formula. The examinable hooks: define and reconcile FCF vs FCFU vs FCFE, build FCF from a statement, value equity by the FCFE model and the DDM, and reconcile the two (next page). Put the cash-flow cascade and the four matched (cash-flow, rate) pairs on your A4. 第2 课是这场 65% 带入-A4 期末(3小时+15分钟,简答概念题+计算题,没有代数推导)的基础。公式表是提供的 - 所以分数赢在用哪种现金流口径以及它配什么折现率,绝不在回忆一个公式。可考的挂钩:界定并对账 FCF vs FCFU vs FCFE、从一张报表搭出 FCF、用 FCFE 模型和 DDM 给股权估值,并对账两者(下一页)。把现金流级联和那四对匹配的 (现金流,率)组合放上你的A4。 2. 1 The DCF idea & its three pillars 2. 1DCF 的理念及其三大支柱 Value is forward-looking and additive: 价值是前瞻的且可加的: Vo => T (1 + r){ Ct t=1 Three pillars justify the discounting. Time value of money - a safe dollar now beats a safe dollar later. Risk aversion - a safe dollar later beats a risky one, so a risk premium is added to r. Value additivity - the PV of a sum equals the sum of the PVs, which lets us value each surplus asset, claim and cash stream separately then add them.
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八、Enterprise DCF:整门课的主战场
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企业 DCF 的标准流程,你最好练成固定模板:
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五步模板
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第 1 步:写假设并点名模型
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第 2 步:搭现金流并折现
- 先决定现金流口径
- 再决定匹配折现率[5]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf上面每一行底下都坐着一条规则:折现率必须匹配现金流的风险与时间,以及它被定义的基准。配错了,所提供的公式表就会算出 一个毫无意义的数。把这四对操练到成为条件反射。 Cash flow Pairs with rate Because FCFU - unlevered, no ITS ks (Standard WACC) ITS stripped from BOTH sides FCF - all investors, contains ITS ky (Vanilla WACC) ITS lives in the cash flow FCFE - equity residual ke (FCFE model / DDM) equity cash +> equity rate FCFU + ITS separately ku & kits (APV) operations + financing split ✓ Name the type out loud, then commit 大声说出题型,然后下定决心 In the 15-minute reading time, write the type name beside each question ("recursive", "de-lever beta", "convertible" . . . ). That one label triggers the model, the matched pair and the first three steps from this grid - before the clock on the 180 minutes really starts. 在 15 分钟阅读时间里,在每道题旁写上类型名("recursive”、“de-lever beta"、"convertible" . . . )。那一个标签就触发 了模型、配对组合,以及这张网格里的前三步 -- 在180 分钟的钟真正开始走之前。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR - EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM-CONDITIONS: ONE DOUBLE-SIDED A4 + CASIO FX82 Your bring-in A4 - method & decision logic, not formulas 你带入的 A4 -- 方法与决策逻辑,而非公式 Six zones, a 180-minute triage, and the selector you must draw from memory 六个区域、一份180分钟分诊计划,以及你必须凭记忆画出的选择器 TL;DR. You may bring one double-sided A4 of your own notes and a non-programmable Casio FX82 (the FX-8200 is not permitted); the formula sheet is provided inside the exam (you may ignore the imputation formulae). So do not waste the A4 on formulas you will already be given - fill it with decision logic, worked-step templates and traps. Below is a six-zone layout that mirrors the decoder. TL;DR。你可以带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记和一台不可编程的 Casio FX82(FX-8200 不允许);公式表在考试中提供(你可以 忽略 imputation 公式)。所以不要把A4 浪费在你已经会被给到的公式上 -- 用决策逻辑、分步模板和陷阱把它填满。下面是 一个映射解码器的六区域版式。 i Honour the exam conditions exactly 严格遵守考试条件 Bring-in (one A4 of your own notes) + a provided formula sheet - this is neither closed nor fully open book. Raw formulas are supplied, so they earn you nothing on the A4. Your edge is knowing which model to use and executing it cleanly under time pressure.[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制
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第 3 步:加 terminal value
- 往往从最后一个显性预测期开始接 growing perpetuity[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
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第 4 步:EV → Equity → Per share
- 桥接到股权、再除股数[4]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf一本书,三个时刻 LEARN the method - BUILD the model- walk the exam answer shape LEARN 方法 → BUILD 模型 → 走一遍考试答题形态 TL;DR. This is not a transcript of the seminars or a re-run of the workshop spreadsheets. It is a self- contained course in the valuation reasoning FNCE30011 examines - each idea stated plainly, each method shown on a fully-worked example with our own round numbers, each classic trap flagged. Because the exam hands you the formula sheet, these pages drill the thing it cannot give you: read the setup, name the right model, build the cash flows, bridge to equity. TL;DR。这不是研讨课的逐字记录,也不是工作坊电子表格的重跑。它是一门自成体系的课程,讲授 FNCE30011 所考的估值推 理 -- 每个理念都讲得明明白白,每种方法都在一个用我们自己的整数完整算过的例子上展示,每个经典陷阱都被标出。因为考 试会把公式表交给你,这些页面操练的是它无法给你的东西:读懂设置、点出正确的模型、搭建现金流、桥接到股权。 A 1 . LEARN the method 1 · LEARN 方法 You haven't done the topic yet. Read a chapter top to bottom. Every idea opens with a one-line TL;DR, then heading - diagram/formula - explainer - worked example - trap - recap. The diagrams are original schematics of the standard valuation canon - learn the DCF picture and the WACC fork cold. 你还没学过这个主题。把一章从 头读到尾。每个理念都以一行 TL;DR 开头,然后是标题 → 图 示/公式→讲解→ 例题 → 陷 阱→回顾。图示是标准估值典 籍的原创示意图 -- 把 DCF 那 张图和WACC分叉学到烂熟。 B 2 . BUILD the model 2 · BUILD 模型 You've seen the seminar and a workshop. Cover the worked steps and re-build each by hand on a Casio FX82 - forecast the unlevered FCF, choose the WACC model, discount, add the terminal value, run the EV-equity bridge. The 20% group assignment is this book applied to a real firm; the exam is the same engine on fresh numbers. 你看过研讨课和一节工作坊了。 盖住已算的步骤,用 Casio FX82 逐一手工重建 -- 预测无杠杆 FCF、选择 WACC 模型、折 现、加上 terminal value、跑 EV→股权桥接。那个20% 的小 组作业就是把这本书应用到一家 真实公司上;考试则是同一台引擎 在新数字上的运行。 C 3 . APPLY 3 · APPLY 应用 It's revision / SWOT week. The TL;DRs, the trap boxes and the recurring model-selector - DCF + equity pattern are your map. Distil them onto your one A4: a model-selector decision tree, the four cash-flow / discount-rate matching pairs, and your worked- step templates - not a wall of formulas (those are provided). 现在是复习/SWOT周。那些 TL;DR、陷阱框,以及反复出现的 模型选择器→ DCF→ 股权模式 就是你的地图。把它们提炼到你 的那一张 A4 上:一棵模型选择器 决策树、四对现金流 / 折现率匹 配组合,以及你的分步模板 -- 而 不是一墙公式(那些是提供的)。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual i The single engine that runs the whole subject 贯穿整门课的那个单一引擎 Master one calculation and the subject collapses into a pattern. Every task - an enterprise DCF, a WACC build, a multiple, a hybrid by replication - orbits the same engine: estimate the free cash flow to all investors, discount it at the cost of capital, add a terminal value, then bridge enterprise value to equity and divide by shares. Wrapped around it is one front-door question - which WACC model does the leverage story imply? - and one answer shape the markers reward beat by beat. Internalise both and fresh exam numbers cannot surprise you. - 掌握一个计算,这门课就坍缩成一个模式。每一项任务 -- 一个企业 DCF、一次 WACC 搭建、一个倍数、一个用复制法 处理的混合工具 -- 都绕着同一台引擎转:估计流向所有投资者的自由现金流、用资本成本折现它、加上一个 terminal value,然后把企业价值桥接到股权并除以股数。包裹在它外面的是一个前门问题 -- 杠杆故事意味着哪个 WACC 模型? -以及一种打分人会逐拍奖励的答案形态。把两者内化,新的考试数字就吓不到你。 THE SPINE EV = T ∑ t=1 FCFU (1 + ks)* + TVT (1 + ks)T ⟶ Equity = EV - net debt ⟶ Equity shares ! The most important strategic fact about FNCE30011 关于 FNCE30011 最重要的策略性事实[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual
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第 5 步:合理性检查
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阅卷老师最喜欢的答题形态
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九、Standard WACC / Vanilla WACC / Recursive WACC 你怎么区分
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1)Standard WACC
- 适用于:
- constant target leverage ratio
- 关键语义信号:
- 题目说公司每年按某个固定比例维持债务比率
- 债务会随企业价值再平衡[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[9]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 This is the single most valuable page in the bible. The 65% written final (180 min + 15 min reading, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations) is decided question-by-question by this selector. The formula sheet is provided; a non-programmable Casio FX82 and one double-sided A4 of your own notes are your only aids - so your A4 must carry this decision logic, not the formulas. Mis-read the leverage switch and the provided sheet will not save you: you will discount a changing-leverage project at one ks (wrong) or grind a constant-ratio firm recursively (slow, error-prone). 这是整本 bible 里最有价值的一页。这场65% 的笔试 final(180 分钟+15分钟阅读时间,简答概念+计算,不考代数推 导)是靠这张选择器逐题决定的。formula sheet 是提供的;一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 和一张你自己的双面 A4 笔记是 你仅有的辅助 -- 所以你的A4 必须承载这套决策逻辑,而不是那些公式。看错杠杆的开关,提供的公式表也救不了你:你会 用一个(错的)single 去折现一个杠杆在变的项目,或者把一个 constant-ratio 公司递归地硬磨(慢、易错)。 s. 1 Switch 1 - how does leverage behave? S. 1开关 1 -- 杠杆如何变化? Read the stem for the shape of the debt. Three shapes, three models. The whole WACC family is one decision tree: 读题干找债务的形态。三种形态,三个模型。整个 WACC 家族就是一棵决策树: AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG S. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model selector. The root question is the shape of leverage; each branch fixes the model and the matched (cash-flow, rate) pair. The gold strip is the second switch - the risk of the interest tax shields. Memorise this picture; the formula sheet supplies the rest. WACC 模型选择器。根问题是杠杆的形态;每个分支确定模型和配对的(现金流、利率)组合。金色那条带是第二个开关 -- ITS 的风险。把这张图背下来;formula sheet 提供其余部分。[11]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfClass 4 is the engine room of the 65% final (180 min + 15 reading; Casio FX82, your bring-in A4, and the provided formula sheet). Because the sheet gives every formula, you lose marks only by choosing the wrong model. The two switches: (1) how does leverage behave? - constant ratio-Standard, dollar schedule-Vanilla, changing ratio / changing k -Recursive; (2) ITS risk? - rebalance-to-ratio -> knan=k , fixed schedule -> knon=kn. Past papers: equity from a vanilla EV (2022 Q1), back-out the ITS (2023 Q5), and the recursive value (2025/2023/2021 Q1) on page 3. Class 4 是这场 65% 期末考 的引擎室(180分钟+15 分钟阅读;Casio FX82、你可带入的A4纸,以及 提供的公式 表)。因为公式表给出了每一个公式,所以你只会因 选错模型 而丢分。两个开关:(1)杠杆如何表现 ?-- 恒定比率 →Standard,美元排程→Vanilla,变动比率/变动k→递归;(2) ITS 风险 ?-- 再平衡到比率→ Kn on = ka,固定排 程 → Kn on = kn。历年真题:从 vanilla EV 求股权(2022 Q1)、反推 ITS(2023 Q5),以及递归价值 (2025/2023/2021 Q1),见第3页。 4. 1 One picture decides the model 4. 1一张图决定模型 Every enterprise-DCF question in this subject is a fork. Read the financing policy, pick a branch, and the provided formula sheet does the rest. You will meet the right-hand branch in full on page 3. 本门课中每一道企业 DCF 题都是一个分叉。读懂融资政策、选一条分支,所提供的公式表会做完剩下的。你将在第3页完整 遇到右手那条分支。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG 4. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model-selector - the course's hook. Constant target ratio L (debt rebalanced to Dt=L . Vt) - Standard WACC. Fixed dollar debt schedule (L drifts) - Vanilla WACC, and if knon=ka then kn=ka. Changing ratio or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. The gold strip is the second switch: the risk of the interest tax shields . WACC 模型选择器 -- 这门课的钩子。Constant target ratio L(债务 rebalance 到 Dt=L· Vt)→ Standard WACC。 Fixed dollar debt schedule(L 漂移)→ Vanilla WACC,而如果 kn on=ka 则 kh=ka。 Changing ratio 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。金色那条带是第二个开关:ITS的风险。
- 适用于:
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2)Vanilla WACC
- 适用于:
- fixed debt schedule
- 关键语义信号:
- 题目直接给出每年债务额
- 不是按比例 rebalance
- 所以 leverage ratio 会漂移[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[9]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 This is the single most valuable page in the bible. The 65% written final (180 min + 15 min reading, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations) is decided question-by-question by this selector. The formula sheet is provided; a non-programmable Casio FX82 and one double-sided A4 of your own notes are your only aids - so your A4 must carry this decision logic, not the formulas. Mis-read the leverage switch and the provided sheet will not save you: you will discount a changing-leverage project at one ks (wrong) or grind a constant-ratio firm recursively (slow, error-prone). 这是整本 bible 里最有价值的一页。这场65% 的笔试 final(180 分钟+15分钟阅读时间,简答概念+计算,不考代数推 导)是靠这张选择器逐题决定的。formula sheet 是提供的;一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 和一张你自己的双面 A4 笔记是 你仅有的辅助 -- 所以你的A4 必须承载这套决策逻辑,而不是那些公式。看错杠杆的开关,提供的公式表也救不了你:你会 用一个(错的)single 去折现一个杠杆在变的项目,或者把一个 constant-ratio 公司递归地硬磨(慢、易错)。 s. 1 Switch 1 - how does leverage behave? S. 1开关 1 -- 杠杆如何变化? Read the stem for the shape of the debt. Three shapes, three models. The whole WACC family is one decision tree: 读题干找债务的形态。三种形态,三个模型。整个 WACC 家族就是一棵决策树: AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG S. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model selector. The root question is the shape of leverage; each branch fixes the model and the matched (cash-flow, rate) pair. The gold strip is the second switch - the risk of the interest tax shields. Memorise this picture; the formula sheet supplies the rest. WACC 模型选择器。根问题是杠杆的形态;每个分支确定模型和配对的(现金流、利率)组合。金色那条带是第二个开关 -- ITS 的风险。把这张图背下来;formula sheet 提供其余部分。[11]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfClass 4 is the engine room of the 65% final (180 min + 15 reading; Casio FX82, your bring-in A4, and the provided formula sheet). Because the sheet gives every formula, you lose marks only by choosing the wrong model. The two switches: (1) how does leverage behave? - constant ratio-Standard, dollar schedule-Vanilla, changing ratio / changing k -Recursive; (2) ITS risk? - rebalance-to-ratio -> knan=k , fixed schedule -> knon=kn. Past papers: equity from a vanilla EV (2022 Q1), back-out the ITS (2023 Q5), and the recursive value (2025/2023/2021 Q1) on page 3. Class 4 是这场 65% 期末考 的引擎室(180分钟+15 分钟阅读;Casio FX82、你可带入的A4纸,以及 提供的公式 表)。因为公式表给出了每一个公式,所以你只会因 选错模型 而丢分。两个开关:(1)杠杆如何表现 ?-- 恒定比率 →Standard,美元排程→Vanilla,变动比率/变动k→递归;(2) ITS 风险 ?-- 再平衡到比率→ Kn on = ka,固定排 程 → Kn on = kn。历年真题:从 vanilla EV 求股权(2022 Q1)、反推 ITS(2023 Q5),以及递归价值 (2025/2023/2021 Q1),见第3页。 4. 1 One picture decides the model 4. 1一张图决定模型 Every enterprise-DCF question in this subject is a fork. Read the financing policy, pick a branch, and the provided formula sheet does the rest. You will meet the right-hand branch in full on page 3. 本门课中每一道企业 DCF 题都是一个分叉。读懂融资政策、选一条分支,所提供的公式表会做完剩下的。你将在第3页完整 遇到右手那条分支。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG 4. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model-selector - the course's hook. Constant target ratio L (debt rebalanced to Dt=L . Vt) - Standard WACC. Fixed dollar debt schedule (L drifts) - Vanilla WACC, and if knon=ka then kn=ka. Changing ratio or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. The gold strip is the second switch: the risk of the interest tax shields . WACC 模型选择器 -- 这门课的钩子。Constant target ratio L(债务 rebalance 到 Dt=L· Vt)→ Standard WACC。 Fixed dollar debt schedule(L 漂移)→ Vanilla WACC,而如果 kn on=ka 则 kh=ka。 Changing ratio 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。金色那条带是第二个开关:ITS的风险。
- 适用于:
-
3)Recursive Standard WACC
- 适用于:
- leverage 每年变
- 或 $k_u$ 每年变
- 关键词:
- changing leverage
- changing operating risk
- backward induction[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制[11]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfClass 4 is the engine room of the 65% final (180 min + 15 reading; Casio FX82, your bring-in A4, and the provided formula sheet). Because the sheet gives every formula, you lose marks only by choosing the wrong model. The two switches: (1) how does leverage behave? - constant ratio-Standard, dollar schedule-Vanilla, changing ratio / changing k -Recursive; (2) ITS risk? - rebalance-to-ratio -> knan=k , fixed schedule -> knon=kn. Past papers: equity from a vanilla EV (2022 Q1), back-out the ITS (2023 Q5), and the recursive value (2025/2023/2021 Q1) on page 3. Class 4 是这场 65% 期末考 的引擎室(180分钟+15 分钟阅读;Casio FX82、你可带入的A4纸,以及 提供的公式 表)。因为公式表给出了每一个公式,所以你只会因 选错模型 而丢分。两个开关:(1)杠杆如何表现 ?-- 恒定比率 →Standard,美元排程→Vanilla,变动比率/变动k→递归;(2) ITS 风险 ?-- 再平衡到比率→ Kn on = ka,固定排 程 → Kn on = kn。历年真题:从 vanilla EV 求股权(2022 Q1)、反推 ITS(2023 Q5),以及递归价值 (2025/2023/2021 Q1),见第3页。 4. 1 One picture decides the model 4. 1一张图决定模型 Every enterprise-DCF question in this subject is a fork. Read the financing policy, pick a branch, and the provided formula sheet does the rest. You will meet the right-hand branch in full on page 3. 本门课中每一道企业 DCF 题都是一个分叉。读懂融资政策、选一条分支,所提供的公式表会做完剩下的。你将在第3页完整 遇到右手那条分支。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG 4. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model-selector - the course's hook. Constant target ratio L (debt rebalanced to Dt=L . Vt) - Standard WACC. Fixed dollar debt schedule (L drifts) - Vanilla WACC, and if knon=ka then kn=ka. Changing ratio or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. The gold strip is the second switch: the risk of the interest tax shields . WACC 模型选择器 -- 这门课的钩子。Constant target ratio L(债务 rebalance 到 Dt=L· Vt)→ Standard WACC。 Fixed dollar debt schedule(L 漂移)→ Vanilla WACC,而如果 kn on=ka 则 kh=ka。 Changing ratio 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。金色那条带是第二个开关:ITS的风险。
- 适用于:
-
最常见错误
- 对 changing leverage 还硬套一个单一 WACC
- 对 constant ratio 题却递归乱算
- 看到债务就以为一定用 Vanilla
- 其实关键不是“有没有债”,而是“债务路径怎么设定”[9]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 This is the single most valuable page in the bible. The 65% written final (180 min + 15 min reading, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations) is decided question-by-question by this selector. The formula sheet is provided; a non-programmable Casio FX82 and one double-sided A4 of your own notes are your only aids - so your A4 must carry this decision logic, not the formulas. Mis-read the leverage switch and the provided sheet will not save you: you will discount a changing-leverage project at one ks (wrong) or grind a constant-ratio firm recursively (slow, error-prone). 这是整本 bible 里最有价值的一页。这场65% 的笔试 final(180 分钟+15分钟阅读时间,简答概念+计算,不考代数推 导)是靠这张选择器逐题决定的。formula sheet 是提供的;一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 和一张你自己的双面 A4 笔记是 你仅有的辅助 -- 所以你的A4 必须承载这套决策逻辑,而不是那些公式。看错杠杆的开关,提供的公式表也救不了你:你会 用一个(错的)single 去折现一个杠杆在变的项目,或者把一个 constant-ratio 公司递归地硬磨(慢、易错)。 s. 1 Switch 1 - how does leverage behave? S. 1开关 1 -- 杠杆如何变化? Read the stem for the shape of the debt. Three shapes, three models. The whole WACC family is one decision tree: 读题干找债务的形态。三种形态,三个模型。整个 WACC 家族就是一棵决策树: AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG S. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model selector. The root question is the shape of leverage; each branch fixes the model and the matched (cash-flow, rate) pair. The gold strip is the second switch - the risk of the interest tax shields. Memorise this picture; the formula sheet supplies the rest. WACC 模型选择器。根问题是杠杆的形态;每个分支确定模型和配对的(现金流、利率)组合。金色那条带是第二个开关 -- ITS 的风险。把这张图背下来;formula sheet 提供其余部分。[14]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf3; build/apply a valuation) Individual take-home exam (online, individual) 15% Mid-semester ★ The exam format - model selection, NOT formula recall 考试形式 -- 模型选择,而非公式默写 One invigilated written paper, and the formula sheet is printed inside it. You will not earn marks for reproducing ks or the CAPM - they are given. You will be handed a firm sketch, forecasts, leverage information and cost-of-capital inputs and asked to name the right model, build the cash flows, discount, and bridge to a per-share value - plus short concept items (why enterprise DCF; Standard vs Vanilla vs Recursive WACC; the interest-tax-shield risk switch; why a multiple must be like-with-like). Questions are short-answer with no algebraic derivations. Walk a full valuation on a fresh firm and you have walked the exam. 一场监考的书面试卷,而公式表就印在它里面。你不会 因复述 或 CAPM 而得分 -- 它们是给定的。你会拿到 一份公司速写、各种预测、杠杆信息和资本成本输入, 并被要求点出正确的模型、搭建现金流、折现,并桥接 到一个每股价值- -外加一些简短的概念项(为什么用 TEIL DCF;Standard vs Vanilla vs Recursive WACC; 利息税盾风险开关;为什么一个倍数必须同类与同类)。 题目是简答型,没有代数推导。在一家新公司上走完一 次完整估值,你就走完了考试。 FIG 0. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ Changing L or operating risk k_u D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_tor k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T] k_w = (1-L]k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF"U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s,t) Mies-Ezzel K_V= K_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its . k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its . k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula
-
十、折现率部分:CAPM、beta、de-lever / re-lever
-
1)CAPM
-
2)SML 斜率
-
3)Beta 两步法
-
4)去杠杆公式
- 文件给出:
- $$\beta_u=(1-L)\beta_e+L\beta_d$$
- 在仅投资级债务近似下,可取 $\beta_d=0$,于是常见简化为:
- $$\beta_u=(1-L)\beta_e$$[10]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfTL;DR. The book follows the subject's arc - the DCF engine (Classes 2-4), the discount rates and refinements that feed it (Classes 5-6), then the cross-checks and replication that defend the answer (Classes 7-10) - before turning it into marks with the model selector, glossary and a practice bank built on the real 2020-2025 exam DNA. TL;DR。本书循着这门课的弧线推进 -- DCF 引擎(第2-4课)、为它供料的折现率与各种细化(第 5-6课),然后是捍卫答案 的交叉验证与复制(第7-10课) -- 再以模型选择器、术语表,以及一个建立在真实 2020-2025 考试 DNA 之上的练习库,把 这一切转化为分数。 Ch Topic Core ideas Part I . The DCF engine (Classes 2-4) 1 Equity valuation using DCF FCF & FCFE . the FCFE model . DDM / Gordon . FCFE-DDM reconciliation . FCF from the statements → 2 Enterprise DCF: the Standard WACC one-period model . kg = (1 - L)ke + Lka(1 -T) · constant target leverage (Miles- → Ezzell) · APV = U0 + I0 · ku 3 Enterprise DCF: the Vanilla & Recursive WACC ky = (1 - L)ke + Lka · target debt schedule . ky = ku when kits = ku · recursive standard WACC by backward induction → Part II . Rates & refinements (Classes 5-6) 4 Estimating discount rates CAPM · Fama-French · levering / de-levering beta (Bu = (1 - L)Be + LBa) . credit → spread (y = rf +CS) 5 Miscellaneous DCF issues surplus (non-operating) assets . cash as net debt . consolidated FCF . one-offs . → leases . terminal values . changing operating risk Part III . Cross-checks & replication (Classes 7-10) 6 Valuation using PE multiples what a multiple is . PE in the FCFE frame (no-growth vs growth) . maintainable earnings . choosing comparators . control premium → 7 Valuation using other multiples EBIT, EBITDA, EBITDA-CAPEX multiples . equity vs enterprise multiples . how leverage & capex distort each . like-with-like → 8 Where value comes from & dilution competitive advantage · growth options . share-issue pricing . two-price dilution cases → 9 Valuation by replication arbitrage & the Law of One Price . replicating portfolios . convertibles = bond + call . warrants . bootstrapping spot rates →[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual
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5)再加杠杆
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6)债务成本
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7)关于 yield 和 $k_d$
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这一块常考陷阱
- 没有先对可比公司去杠杆
- re-lever 到了别人,不是你自己的资本结构
- $r_f$ 和 market proxy 不一致
- 直接把 risky debt 的 yield 当 $k_d$[12]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBring-in(一张你自己的 A4笔记)+一张提供的 formula sheet -- 这既不是闭卷也不是完全开卷。原始公式是给好的,所 以它们写在 A4 上不会给你加分。你的优势在于知道该用哪个模型,并在时间压力下干净利落地执行它。 s. 4 The six-zone A4 layout S. 4六区域 A4 版式 Zone What goes in it Why it earns marks 1. The selector Switch 1 (ratio / schedule / changing) - model; Switch 2 (kits = ku vs ka) picks the right model in seconds 2. The 4 matched pairs FCFU:kg, FCF:ky, FCFE:ke, APV ku+kits stops the No. 1 error (wrong pairing) 3. Recursive template the 4-row drill: Vn = 0 - per-year ks - roll back - Vo the flagship type, done fast 4. Beta & rate cues de-lever peer, re-lever to you, ka = rf + CS; name MRP as the missing input the market-data WACC question 5. Multiples & surplus PE = equity; EBIT/EBITDA = enterprise; add surplus cash, then less debt; strip one-offs both sides stops level/leverage mix-ups 6. Replication moves payoff table by state; convertible = bond + call; bootstrap yt; state the trade the hybrid & arbitrage marks AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ! Things that look like formulas but are really TRAPS - put these on the A4 那些看起来像公式实则是 TRAPS 陷阱的东西 -- 把这些放上 A4 - 用目标杠杆,绝不用账面/当前比率。 · Never the yield as ka for risky debt (it overstates it).[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual
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十一、Class 6:EV 到 Equity 的桥接,是高频送命点
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这块你必须非常熟。
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因为很多题不是只要 EV,而是要:
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核心规则
- 先干净地估 operating assets
- 再把模型没包含的东西单独加回/减掉
- 绝不能 double-count[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
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1)Surplus assets(非经营性资产)
- 比如:
- 规则:
- 单独估值
- 它们的现金流不要放进 FCF
- 否则 double-count[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
-
2)Cash 的处理
- 当前文件特别提醒:
- 为什么?
-
3)One-offs
- 一次性项目要从:
- 公司自身
- comparators
- 两边同时剥离
- 这是 consistency 问题[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
- 一次性项目要从:
-
4)Bridge 逻辑
- operating EV
- 加 surplus assets
- 减 debt
- 得 equity
- 除 shares[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual
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这块最常见错误
- 把 surplus asset 的收益既放进 FCF,又在 bridge 里加一次
- cash 既当 surplus asset 加回,又在 net debt 里抵掉一次
- 只修公司,不修 comparators[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
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十二、Terminal value 是怎么考的
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文件里支持的点主要有这些:
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1)Terminal value 本质
- 是经营业务在显性预测期之后的持续经营尾部价值
- 常见做法是从最后一个显性期接 growing perpetuity[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
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2)永续增长公式
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3)使用条件
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常见错误
- terminal value 落点放错时点
- 增长率和折现率口径不一致
- 还没分清 enterprise 口径和 equity 口径[6]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfTL;DR. The exam gives you the formula sheet, so marks are won on knowing which model a cue points to, not on recall. This bank pairs every term with its +X and a one-line meaning written as a trigger - read the right-hand column as "the moment I see this, I reach for that. " Use it to translate a question stem into a model in the 15-minute reading time. TL;DR。考试把公式表给你,所以分数赢在知道一个线索指向哪个模型,而非默写。这个库把每个术语与它的中文及一行式含义 配对,后者写成一个触发器 -- 把右栏读作“我一看到这个,就去拿那个。”用它在15分钟阅读时间里把一个题干翻译成一个模 型。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 These terms are the vocabulary of the 65% final (180 min + 15 min reading; bring-in A4 + a provided formula sheet). The exam tests concepts and calculations, no algebraic derivations - so the graded skill is choosing the right (cash-flow, discount-rate) pair from a cue. Examined scope = Classes 2-10; Class 1 Framework, Workshop 6 Part B and Class 11 Imputation are not examinable. 这些术语是65% final(180 分钟+15 分钟阅读;bring-in A4+一张提供的 formula sheet)的词汇表。这场考试考概念和 计算,不考代数推导 -- 所以打分的技能是从一条线索里选出对的(现金流、折现率)配对。考查范围= Class 2-10;Class 1 Framework、Workshop 6 Part B 和 Class 11 Imputation 不考。 Term (EN) 中文 One-line meaning (method & when to use) Cash flows & DCF foundations (W2) Free cash flow (FCF) 自由现金流 EBIT + DEP - CAPEX - AWC - tax; cash to all investors and it already contains the interest tax shield. Unlevered FCF (FCFU) 无杠杆自由现 金流 FCF with the ITS stripped out (FCF - Y. T) - the cash an all-equity firm makes; pair it with ks. FCFE (FCF to equity) 股权自由现金 流 Residual to shareholders after interest and net principal; discount at ke to value equity directly. Interest tax shield (ITS) 利息税盾 Y. T - tax saved because interest is deductible; its risk (ky vs kd) is the switch behind every WACC. Dividend discount model (DDM) 股利折现模型 Value equity off dividends, not FCFE; needs a surplus-cash / surplus-liability fix whenever dividend # FCFE. Gordon / constant- growth 戈登(固定增 长) 模型 D1+(ke-g); valid only when ke > g - the steady-state shortcut for a perpetuity. Perpetuity / growing perpetuity 永续年金/增 长永续 C+r and C1+(r-g); the value sits at time t, one period before the first cash flow.[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual
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十三、Multiples:不是背倍数,是“同类比同类”
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你要会的几类
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最核心原则
- like-with-like
- 也就是:
- equity metric 配 equity multiple
- enterprise metric 配 enterprise multiple[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制[14]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf3; build/apply a valuation) Individual take-home exam (online, individual) 15% Mid-semester ★ The exam format - model selection, NOT formula recall 考试形式 -- 模型选择,而非公式默写 One invigilated written paper, and the formula sheet is printed inside it. You will not earn marks for reproducing ks or the CAPM - they are given. You will be handed a firm sketch, forecasts, leverage information and cost-of-capital inputs and asked to name the right model, build the cash flows, discount, and bridge to a per-share value - plus short concept items (why enterprise DCF; Standard vs Vanilla vs Recursive WACC; the interest-tax-shield risk switch; why a multiple must be like-with-like). Questions are short-answer with no algebraic derivations. Walk a full valuation on a fresh firm and you have walked the exam. 一场监考的书面试卷,而公式表就印在它里面。你不会 因复述 或 CAPM 而得分 -- 它们是给定的。你会拿到 一份公司速写、各种预测、杠杆信息和资本成本输入, 并被要求点出正确的模型、搭建现金流、折现,并桥接 到一个每股价值- -外加一些简短的概念项(为什么用 TEIL DCF;Standard vs Vanilla vs Recursive WACC; 利息税盾风险开关;为什么一个倍数必须同类与同类)。 题目是简答型,没有代数推导。在一家新公司上走完一 次完整估值,你就走完了考试。 FIG 0. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ Changing L or operating risk k_u D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_tor k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T] k_w = (1-L]k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF"U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s,t) Mies-Ezzel K_V= K_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its . k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its . k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula
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直接记住
-
这块常见坑
- 用 PE 去配企业口径
- 用 EV multiple 去直接除股数
- comparators 和 target 的 one-offs 没有一致处理
- leverage / CAPEX 差异造成 distortion 却没解释[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制[10]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfTL;DR. The book follows the subject's arc - the DCF engine (Classes 2-4), the discount rates and refinements that feed it (Classes 5-6), then the cross-checks and replication that defend the answer (Classes 7-10) - before turning it into marks with the model selector, glossary and a practice bank built on the real 2020-2025 exam DNA. TL;DR。本书循着这门课的弧线推进 -- DCF 引擎(第2-4课)、为它供料的折现率与各种细化(第 5-6课),然后是捍卫答案 的交叉验证与复制(第7-10课) -- 再以模型选择器、术语表,以及一个建立在真实 2020-2025 考试 DNA 之上的练习库,把 这一切转化为分数。 Ch Topic Core ideas Part I . The DCF engine (Classes 2-4) 1 Equity valuation using DCF FCF & FCFE . the FCFE model . DDM / Gordon . FCFE-DDM reconciliation . FCF from the statements → 2 Enterprise DCF: the Standard WACC one-period model . kg = (1 - L)ke + Lka(1 -T) · constant target leverage (Miles- → Ezzell) · APV = U0 + I0 · ku 3 Enterprise DCF: the Vanilla & Recursive WACC ky = (1 - L)ke + Lka · target debt schedule . ky = ku when kits = ku · recursive standard WACC by backward induction → Part II . Rates & refinements (Classes 5-6) 4 Estimating discount rates CAPM · Fama-French · levering / de-levering beta (Bu = (1 - L)Be + LBa) . credit → spread (y = rf +CS) 5 Miscellaneous DCF issues surplus (non-operating) assets . cash as net debt . consolidated FCF . one-offs . → leases . terminal values . changing operating risk Part III . Cross-checks & replication (Classes 7-10) 6 Valuation using PE multiples what a multiple is . PE in the FCFE frame (no-growth vs growth) . maintainable earnings . choosing comparators . control premium → 7 Valuation using other multiples EBIT, EBITDA, EBITDA-CAPEX multiples . equity vs enterprise multiples . how leverage & capex distort each . like-with-like → 8 Where value comes from & dilution competitive advantage · growth options . share-issue pricing . two-price dilution cases → 9 Valuation by replication arbitrage & the Law of One Price . replicating portfolios . convertibles = bond + call . warrants . bootstrapping spot rates →[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual
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可能考的概念
- 什么是 maintainable earnings
- comparator 怎么选
- 为什么 transaction multiple 可能含 control premium
- 为什么上市股票倍数和交易倍数不能乱比[10]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfTL;DR. The book follows the subject's arc - the DCF engine (Classes 2-4), the discount rates and refinements that feed it (Classes 5-6), then the cross-checks and replication that defend the answer (Classes 7-10) - before turning it into marks with the model selector, glossary and a practice bank built on the real 2020-2025 exam DNA. TL;DR。本书循着这门课的弧线推进 -- DCF 引擎(第2-4课)、为它供料的折现率与各种细化(第 5-6课),然后是捍卫答案 的交叉验证与复制(第7-10课) -- 再以模型选择器、术语表,以及一个建立在真实 2020-2025 考试 DNA 之上的练习库,把 这一切转化为分数。 Ch Topic Core ideas Part I . The DCF engine (Classes 2-4) 1 Equity valuation using DCF FCF & FCFE . the FCFE model . DDM / Gordon . FCFE-DDM reconciliation . FCF from the statements → 2 Enterprise DCF: the Standard WACC one-period model . kg = (1 - L)ke + Lka(1 -T) · constant target leverage (Miles- → Ezzell) · APV = U0 + I0 · ku 3 Enterprise DCF: the Vanilla & Recursive WACC ky = (1 - L)ke + Lka · target debt schedule . ky = ku when kits = ku · recursive standard WACC by backward induction → Part II . Rates & refinements (Classes 5-6) 4 Estimating discount rates CAPM · Fama-French · levering / de-levering beta (Bu = (1 - L)Be + LBa) . credit → spread (y = rf +CS) 5 Miscellaneous DCF issues surplus (non-operating) assets . cash as net debt . consolidated FCF . one-offs . → leases . terminal values . changing operating risk Part III . Cross-checks & replication (Classes 7-10) 6 Valuation using PE multiples what a multiple is . PE in the FCFE frame (no-growth vs growth) . maintainable earnings . choosing comparators . control premium → 7 Valuation using other multiples EBIT, EBITDA, EBITDA-CAPEX multiples . equity vs enterprise multiples . how leverage & capex distort each . like-with-like → 8 Where value comes from & dilution competitive advantage · growth options . share-issue pricing . two-price dilution cases → 9 Valuation by replication arbitrage & the Law of One Price . replicating portfolios . convertibles = bond + call . warrants . bootstrapping spot rates →[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
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十四、Where value comes from:价值来源与 dilution
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价值的来源
- 文件给了三大来源:
- competitive advantage
- growth options
- dilution[3]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfAskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 9 回忆清单 -- 第9类 | 三个价值来源:竞争优势(可持续的)、增长期权(未来灵活性)、稀释(分蛋糕)。 · Wealth-transfer rule: Nnew X (Vfair - Pissue) - zero at fair value, positive (to new owners) when under-priced. I 财富转移规则: -- 公允价值时为零,定价过低时为正(给新所有者)。 · Method: cum value per share - add new cash & new shares - ex value per share - per-owner $ change. I 方法:cum 每股价值 →加入新现金 &新股→ ex 每股价值→每个所有者的$ 变化。 · %-dilution (everyone non-participating) # value dilution (below-value issues only). %-稀释(人人未参与)≠ 价值稀释(仅低于价值的发行)。 两个价格=不同公允价值/内部-vs-外部/蓄意转移;输家是未参与的所有者。 · Remedy: pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. 补救:公司章程里的 pre-emptive right / anti-dilution 条款。 ● 价值的三个来源:竞争优势(持续的 ROIC>ku)、增长期权(未来的灵活性)、稀释(分割饼)。 财富转移规则:Nnew ×(Vfair - Pissue)–– 在公允价值时为零,在定价偏低时为正(流向新股东)。 ● 方法:除权前每股价值→加入新现金 &新股→除权后每股价值→每位股东的 $ 变化。 · %-稀释(每一个不参与认购的人)≠价值稀释(仅限低于价值的发行)。 ● 两个价格= 不同的公允价值/内部人 vs 外部人/蓄意转移;受损方是 不参与认购的 股东。 ● 补救:章程里的优先认购权 / 反稀释条款。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 10 . REPLICATION VALUATION BY REPLICATION CLASS 10 . THE HYBRIDS CHAPTER If two assets pay the same, they must cost the same 若两项资产支付相同,则它们必定成本相同 arbitrage & the Law of One Price . convertible = bond + call 套利与 Law of One Price · 可转债 = 债券 + call TL;DR. When a security has a kinked payoff - a convertible, a warrant, a bond-with-warrants - you do not need a fresh discount-rate model. You replicate it: build a portfolio of things you can price (a straight bond + calls/puts + a zero-coupon bond) whose payoff matches the security in every future state, then by the Law of One Price the security must cost exactly what that portfolio costs. The kink is the tell - it always hides an option. TL;DR。当一个证券有带折点的收益 ---- 只可转债、一份认股权证、一只附认股权证的债券 -- 时,你不需要一个全新的折 现率模型。你复制它:构建一个由你能够定价的东西(一只直债+若干 call/put+一只零息债券)组成的组合,使其收益在每一个 未来状态都与该证券吻合,那么根据 Law of One Price,该证券的成本必定恰好等于那个组合的成本。折点就是线索 -- 它总 是藏着一个期权。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 10 is heavily examined in the 65% final and is the one place the formula sheet does not rescue you - there is no "hybrid formula", only the method. The recurring types: (i) value a convertible / callable-into-shares bond by LOOP (bond leg ± an option leg read off a given grid); (ii) how many bull-spread warrants to issue to raise a target sum; (iii) bond arbitrage from a zero-coupon price schedule - bootstrap spot rates, re-price, and state the trade. Put the cue - decompose - LOOP routine on your bring-in A4, not a formula. Reading-time triage: a kinked payoff or the word convertible / warrant / arbitrage - this chapter. Class 10 在 65% 期末考里 考得很多,而且是公式表 救不了你的唯一地方 -- 这里没有“混合证券公式”,只有 方法。 反复出现的题型:(i)用 LOOP 为可转债/可转股债券估值(债券腿±从给定网格中读出的一条期权腿);(ii)要发行多 少张牛市价差认股权证 才能筹到目标金额;(iii)从零息债券价格表做 债券套利 -- bootstrap 出即期利率、重新定价, 并 说明交易。把 信号→拆解→ LOOP 这套流程放到你可带入的A4 纸上,而非一个公式。阅读时间分诊:一个带折 点的回报,或 convertible / warrant / arbitrage 这几个词→本章。[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
- 文件给了三大来源:
-
competitive advantage
-
growth options
-
dilution
- 这里很容易考概念题[3]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfAskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 9 回忆清单 -- 第9类 | 三个价值来源:竞争优势(可持续的)、增长期权(未来灵活性)、稀释(分蛋糕)。 · Wealth-transfer rule: Nnew X (Vfair - Pissue) - zero at fair value, positive (to new owners) when under-priced. I 财富转移规则: -- 公允价值时为零,定价过低时为正(给新所有者)。 · Method: cum value per share - add new cash & new shares - ex value per share - per-owner $ change. I 方法:cum 每股价值 →加入新现金 &新股→ ex 每股价值→每个所有者的$ 变化。 · %-dilution (everyone non-participating) # value dilution (below-value issues only). %-稀释(人人未参与)≠ 价值稀释(仅低于价值的发行)。 两个价格=不同公允价值/内部-vs-外部/蓄意转移;输家是未参与的所有者。 · Remedy: pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. 补救:公司章程里的 pre-emptive right / anti-dilution 条款。 ● 价值的三个来源:竞争优势(持续的 ROIC>ku)、增长期权(未来的灵活性)、稀释(分割饼)。 财富转移规则:Nnew ×(Vfair - Pissue)–– 在公允价值时为零,在定价偏低时为正(流向新股东)。 ● 方法:除权前每股价值→加入新现金 &新股→除权后每股价值→每位股东的 $ 变化。 · %-稀释(每一个不参与认购的人)≠价值稀释(仅限低于价值的发行)。 ● 两个价格= 不同的公允价值/内部人 vs 外部人/蓄意转移;受损方是 不参与认购的 股东。 ● 补救:章程里的优先认购权 / 反稀释条款。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 10 . REPLICATION VALUATION BY REPLICATION CLASS 10 . THE HYBRIDS CHAPTER If two assets pay the same, they must cost the same 若两项资产支付相同,则它们必定成本相同 arbitrage & the Law of One Price . convertible = bond + call 套利与 Law of One Price · 可转债 = 债券 + call TL;DR. When a security has a kinked payoff - a convertible, a warrant, a bond-with-warrants - you do not need a fresh discount-rate model. You replicate it: build a portfolio of things you can price (a straight bond + calls/puts + a zero-coupon bond) whose payoff matches the security in every future state, then by the Law of One Price the security must cost exactly what that portfolio costs. The kink is the tell - it always hides an option. TL;DR。当一个证券有带折点的收益 ---- 只可转债、一份认股权证、一只附认股权证的债券 -- 时,你不需要一个全新的折 现率模型。你复制它:构建一个由你能够定价的东西(一只直债+若干 call/put+一只零息债券)组成的组合,使其收益在每一个 未来状态都与该证券吻合,那么根据 Law of One Price,该证券的成本必定恰好等于那个组合的成本。折点就是线索 -- 它总 是藏着一个期权。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 10 is heavily examined in the 65% final and is the one place the formula sheet does not rescue you - there is no "hybrid formula", only the method. The recurring types: (i) value a convertible / callable-into-shares bond by LOOP (bond leg ± an option leg read off a given grid); (ii) how many bull-spread warrants to issue to raise a target sum; (iii) bond arbitrage from a zero-coupon price schedule - bootstrap spot rates, re-price, and state the trade. Put the cue - decompose - LOOP routine on your bring-in A4, not a formula. Reading-time triage: a kinked payoff or the word convertible / warrant / arbitrage - this chapter. Class 10 在 65% 期末考里 考得很多,而且是公式表 救不了你的唯一地方 -- 这里没有“混合证券公式”,只有 方法。 反复出现的题型:(i)用 LOOP 为可转债/可转股债券估值(债券腿±从给定网格中读出的一条期权腿);(ii)要发行多 少张牛市价差认股权证 才能筹到目标金额;(iii)从零息债券价格表做 债券套利 -- bootstrap 出即期利率、重新定价, 并 说明交易。把 信号→拆解→ LOOP 这套流程放到你可带入的A4 纸上,而非一个公式。阅读时间分诊:一个带折 点的回报,或 convertible / warrant / arbitrage 这几个词→本章。[10]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfTL;DR. The book follows the subject's arc - the DCF engine (Classes 2-4), the discount rates and refinements that feed it (Classes 5-6), then the cross-checks and replication that defend the answer (Classes 7-10) - before turning it into marks with the model selector, glossary and a practice bank built on the real 2020-2025 exam DNA. TL;DR。本书循着这门课的弧线推进 -- DCF 引擎(第2-4课)、为它供料的折现率与各种细化(第 5-6课),然后是捍卫答案 的交叉验证与复制(第7-10课) -- 再以模型选择器、术语表,以及一个建立在真实 2020-2025 考试 DNA 之上的练习库,把 这一切转化为分数。 Ch Topic Core ideas Part I . The DCF engine (Classes 2-4) 1 Equity valuation using DCF FCF & FCFE . the FCFE model . DDM / Gordon . FCFE-DDM reconciliation . FCF from the statements → 2 Enterprise DCF: the Standard WACC one-period model . kg = (1 - L)ke + Lka(1 -T) · constant target leverage (Miles- → Ezzell) · APV = U0 + I0 · ku 3 Enterprise DCF: the Vanilla & Recursive WACC ky = (1 - L)ke + Lka · target debt schedule . ky = ku when kits = ku · recursive standard WACC by backward induction → Part II . Rates & refinements (Classes 5-6) 4 Estimating discount rates CAPM · Fama-French · levering / de-levering beta (Bu = (1 - L)Be + LBa) . credit → spread (y = rf +CS) 5 Miscellaneous DCF issues surplus (non-operating) assets . cash as net debt . consolidated FCF . one-offs . → leases . terminal values . changing operating risk Part III . Cross-checks & replication (Classes 7-10) 6 Valuation using PE multiples what a multiple is . PE in the FCFE frame (no-growth vs growth) . maintainable earnings . choosing comparators . control premium → 7 Valuation using other multiples EBIT, EBITDA, EBITDA-CAPEX multiples . equity vs enterprise multiples . how leverage & capex distort each . like-with-like → 8 Where value comes from & dilution competitive advantage · growth options . share-issue pricing . two-price dilution cases → 9 Valuation by replication arbitrage & the Law of One Price . replicating portfolios . convertibles = bond + call . warrants . bootstrapping spot rates →[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
-
你必须会的 dilution 规则
-
方法步骤
-
必背区分
- 股权比例稀释 ≠ 价值稀释
- 价值稀释只发生在低于公允价值发行时[3]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfAskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 9 回忆清单 -- 第9类 | 三个价值来源:竞争优势(可持续的)、增长期权(未来灵活性)、稀释(分蛋糕)。 · Wealth-transfer rule: Nnew X (Vfair - Pissue) - zero at fair value, positive (to new owners) when under-priced. I 财富转移规则: -- 公允价值时为零,定价过低时为正(给新所有者)。 · Method: cum value per share - add new cash & new shares - ex value per share - per-owner $ change. I 方法:cum 每股价值 →加入新现金 &新股→ ex 每股价值→每个所有者的$ 变化。 · %-dilution (everyone non-participating) # value dilution (below-value issues only). %-稀释(人人未参与)≠ 价值稀释(仅低于价值的发行)。 两个价格=不同公允价值/内部-vs-外部/蓄意转移;输家是未参与的所有者。 · Remedy: pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. 补救:公司章程里的 pre-emptive right / anti-dilution 条款。 ● 价值的三个来源:竞争优势(持续的 ROIC>ku)、增长期权(未来的灵活性)、稀释(分割饼)。 财富转移规则:Nnew ×(Vfair - Pissue)–– 在公允价值时为零,在定价偏低时为正(流向新股东)。 ● 方法:除权前每股价值→加入新现金 &新股→除权后每股价值→每位股东的 $ 变化。 · %-稀释(每一个不参与认购的人)≠价值稀释(仅限低于价值的发行)。 ● 两个价格= 不同的公允价值/内部人 vs 外部人/蓄意转移;受损方是 不参与认购的 股东。 ● 补救:章程里的优先认购权 / 反稀释条款。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 10 . REPLICATION VALUATION BY REPLICATION CLASS 10 . THE HYBRIDS CHAPTER If two assets pay the same, they must cost the same 若两项资产支付相同,则它们必定成本相同 arbitrage & the Law of One Price . convertible = bond + call 套利与 Law of One Price · 可转债 = 债券 + call TL;DR. When a security has a kinked payoff - a convertible, a warrant, a bond-with-warrants - you do not need a fresh discount-rate model. You replicate it: build a portfolio of things you can price (a straight bond + calls/puts + a zero-coupon bond) whose payoff matches the security in every future state, then by the Law of One Price the security must cost exactly what that portfolio costs. The kink is the tell - it always hides an option. TL;DR。当一个证券有带折点的收益 ---- 只可转债、一份认股权证、一只附认股权证的债券 -- 时,你不需要一个全新的折 现率模型。你复制它:构建一个由你能够定价的东西(一只直债+若干 call/put+一只零息债券)组成的组合,使其收益在每一个 未来状态都与该证券吻合,那么根据 Law of One Price,该证券的成本必定恰好等于那个组合的成本。折点就是线索 -- 它总 是藏着一个期权。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 10 is heavily examined in the 65% final and is the one place the formula sheet does not rescue you - there is no "hybrid formula", only the method. The recurring types: (i) value a convertible / callable-into-shares bond by LOOP (bond leg ± an option leg read off a given grid); (ii) how many bull-spread warrants to issue to raise a target sum; (iii) bond arbitrage from a zero-coupon price schedule - bootstrap spot rates, re-price, and state the trade. Put the cue - decompose - LOOP routine on your bring-in A4, not a formula. Reading-time triage: a kinked payoff or the word convertible / warrant / arbitrage - this chapter. Class 10 在 65% 期末考里 考得很多,而且是公式表 救不了你的唯一地方 -- 这里没有“混合证券公式”,只有 方法。 反复出现的题型:(i)用 LOOP 为可转债/可转股债券估值(债券腿±从给定网格中读出的一条期权腿);(ii)要发行多 少张牛市价差认股权证 才能筹到目标金额;(iii)从零息债券价格表做 债券套利 -- bootstrap 出即期利率、重新定价, 并 说明交易。把 信号→拆解→ LOOP 这套流程放到你可带入的A4 纸上,而非一个公式。阅读时间分诊:一个带折 点的回报,或 convertible / warrant / arbitrage 这几个词→本章。[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
-
补救措施
- pre-emptive right
- anti-dilution clause[3]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfAskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 9 回忆清单 -- 第9类 | 三个价值来源:竞争优势(可持续的)、增长期权(未来灵活性)、稀释(分蛋糕)。 · Wealth-transfer rule: Nnew X (Vfair - Pissue) - zero at fair value, positive (to new owners) when under-priced. I 财富转移规则: -- 公允价值时为零,定价过低时为正(给新所有者)。 · Method: cum value per share - add new cash & new shares - ex value per share - per-owner $ change. I 方法:cum 每股价值 →加入新现金 &新股→ ex 每股价值→每个所有者的$ 变化。 · %-dilution (everyone non-participating) # value dilution (below-value issues only). %-稀释(人人未参与)≠ 价值稀释(仅低于价值的发行)。 两个价格=不同公允价值/内部-vs-外部/蓄意转移;输家是未参与的所有者。 · Remedy: pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. 补救:公司章程里的 pre-emptive right / anti-dilution 条款。 ● 价值的三个来源:竞争优势(持续的 ROIC>ku)、增长期权(未来的灵活性)、稀释(分割饼)。 财富转移规则:Nnew ×(Vfair - Pissue)–– 在公允价值时为零,在定价偏低时为正(流向新股东)。 ● 方法:除权前每股价值→加入新现金 &新股→除权后每股价值→每位股东的 $ 变化。 · %-稀释(每一个不参与认购的人)≠价值稀释(仅限低于价值的发行)。 ● 两个价格= 不同的公允价值/内部人 vs 外部人/蓄意转移;受损方是 不参与认购的 股东。 ● 补救:章程里的优先认购权 / 反稀释条款。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 10 . REPLICATION VALUATION BY REPLICATION CLASS 10 . THE HYBRIDS CHAPTER If two assets pay the same, they must cost the same 若两项资产支付相同,则它们必定成本相同 arbitrage & the Law of One Price . convertible = bond + call 套利与 Law of One Price · 可转债 = 债券 + call TL;DR. When a security has a kinked payoff - a convertible, a warrant, a bond-with-warrants - you do not need a fresh discount-rate model. You replicate it: build a portfolio of things you can price (a straight bond + calls/puts + a zero-coupon bond) whose payoff matches the security in every future state, then by the Law of One Price the security must cost exactly what that portfolio costs. The kink is the tell - it always hides an option. TL;DR。当一个证券有带折点的收益 ---- 只可转债、一份认股权证、一只附认股权证的债券 -- 时,你不需要一个全新的折 现率模型。你复制它:构建一个由你能够定价的东西(一只直债+若干 call/put+一只零息债券)组成的组合,使其收益在每一个 未来状态都与该证券吻合,那么根据 Law of One Price,该证券的成本必定恰好等于那个组合的成本。折点就是线索 -- 它总 是藏着一个期权。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 10 is heavily examined in the 65% final and is the one place the formula sheet does not rescue you - there is no "hybrid formula", only the method. The recurring types: (i) value a convertible / callable-into-shares bond by LOOP (bond leg ± an option leg read off a given grid); (ii) how many bull-spread warrants to issue to raise a target sum; (iii) bond arbitrage from a zero-coupon price schedule - bootstrap spot rates, re-price, and state the trade. Put the cue - decompose - LOOP routine on your bring-in A4, not a formula. Reading-time triage: a kinked payoff or the word convertible / warrant / arbitrage - this chapter. Class 10 在 65% 期末考里 考得很多,而且是公式表 救不了你的唯一地方 -- 这里没有“混合证券公式”,只有 方法。 反复出现的题型:(i)用 LOOP 为可转债/可转股债券估值(债券腿±从给定网格中读出的一条期权腿);(ii)要发行多 少张牛市价差认股权证 才能筹到目标金额;(iii)从零息债券价格表做 债券套利 -- bootstrap 出即期利率、重新定价, 并 说明交易。把 信号→拆解→ LOOP 这套流程放到你可带入的A4 纸上,而非一个公式。阅读时间分诊:一个带折 点的回报,或 convertible / warrant / arbitrage 这几个词→本章。[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
-
十五、Replication:公式表最救不了你的一章
-
核心思想
- 如果两个资产未来 payoff 一样,它们今天价格必须一样
- 这就是:
- arbitrage
- Law of One Price(LOOP)[3]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfAskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 9 回忆清单 -- 第9类 | 三个价值来源:竞争优势(可持续的)、增长期权(未来灵活性)、稀释(分蛋糕)。 · Wealth-transfer rule: Nnew X (Vfair - Pissue) - zero at fair value, positive (to new owners) when under-priced. I 财富转移规则: -- 公允价值时为零,定价过低时为正(给新所有者)。 · Method: cum value per share - add new cash & new shares - ex value per share - per-owner $ change. I 方法:cum 每股价值 →加入新现金 &新股→ ex 每股价值→每个所有者的$ 变化。 · %-dilution (everyone non-participating) # value dilution (below-value issues only). %-稀释(人人未参与)≠ 价值稀释(仅低于价值的发行)。 两个价格=不同公允价值/内部-vs-外部/蓄意转移;输家是未参与的所有者。 · Remedy: pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. 补救:公司章程里的 pre-emptive right / anti-dilution 条款。 ● 价值的三个来源:竞争优势(持续的 ROIC>ku)、增长期权(未来的灵活性)、稀释(分割饼)。 财富转移规则:Nnew ×(Vfair - Pissue)–– 在公允价值时为零,在定价偏低时为正(流向新股东)。 ● 方法:除权前每股价值→加入新现金 &新股→除权后每股价值→每位股东的 $ 变化。 · %-稀释(每一个不参与认购的人)≠价值稀释(仅限低于价值的发行)。 ● 两个价格= 不同的公允价值/内部人 vs 外部人/蓄意转移;受损方是 不参与认购的 股东。 ● 补救:章程里的优先认购权 / 反稀释条款。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 10 . REPLICATION VALUATION BY REPLICATION CLASS 10 . THE HYBRIDS CHAPTER If two assets pay the same, they must cost the same 若两项资产支付相同,则它们必定成本相同 arbitrage & the Law of One Price . convertible = bond + call 套利与 Law of One Price · 可转债 = 债券 + call TL;DR. When a security has a kinked payoff - a convertible, a warrant, a bond-with-warrants - you do not need a fresh discount-rate model. You replicate it: build a portfolio of things you can price (a straight bond + calls/puts + a zero-coupon bond) whose payoff matches the security in every future state, then by the Law of One Price the security must cost exactly what that portfolio costs. The kink is the tell - it always hides an option. TL;DR。当一个证券有带折点的收益 ---- 只可转债、一份认股权证、一只附认股权证的债券 -- 时,你不需要一个全新的折 现率模型。你复制它:构建一个由你能够定价的东西(一只直债+若干 call/put+一只零息债券)组成的组合,使其收益在每一个 未来状态都与该证券吻合,那么根据 Law of One Price,该证券的成本必定恰好等于那个组合的成本。折点就是线索 -- 它总 是藏着一个期权。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 10 is heavily examined in the 65% final and is the one place the formula sheet does not rescue you - there is no "hybrid formula", only the method. The recurring types: (i) value a convertible / callable-into-shares bond by LOOP (bond leg ± an option leg read off a given grid); (ii) how many bull-spread warrants to issue to raise a target sum; (iii) bond arbitrage from a zero-coupon price schedule - bootstrap spot rates, re-price, and state the trade. Put the cue - decompose - LOOP routine on your bring-in A4, not a formula. Reading-time triage: a kinked payoff or the word convertible / warrant / arbitrage - this chapter. Class 10 在 65% 期末考里 考得很多,而且是公式表 救不了你的唯一地方 -- 这里没有“混合证券公式”,只有 方法。 反复出现的题型:(i)用 LOOP 为可转债/可转股债券估值(债券腿±从给定网格中读出的一条期权腿);(ii)要发行多 少张牛市价差认股权证 才能筹到目标金额;(iii)从零息债券价格表做 债券套利 -- bootstrap 出即期利率、重新定价, 并 说明交易。把 信号→拆解→ LOOP 这套流程放到你可带入的A4 纸上,而非一个公式。阅读时间分诊:一个带折 点的回报,或 convertible / warrant / arbitrage 这几个词→本章。[13]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfIf the traded price were instead above $1,001. 05, flip it: short the coupon bond, buy the replicating zeros. The marks are in naming the buy/short legs and the locked-in number - never just "an arbitrage exists". 如果交易价格反而高于$1,001. 05,就反过来:卖空附息债券,买入用于复制的零息债券。分数在于点名买入/卖空的各腿以 及锁定的那个数 -- 绝不要只说“存在一个套利”。 ! Single yield # spot rates ¥- yield # spot rates Pricing a coupon bond at one flat yield when the term structure slopes is the classic error - discount each promised cash flow at its own matching spot rate. And never stop at "arbitrage exists": the question "what should you do?" wants the explicit buy / short trade and the riskless profit. 当 期限结构有斜率 时却按一个统一收益率为附息债券定价,是经典的错误 -- 要按每一笔承诺现金流 各自匹配的即期 利率 来折现。而且绝不要停在“存在套利”上:“你应该怎么做?”这个问题要的是明确的 买入/做空交易 以及 无风险利 润。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 10 回忆清单 -- 第 10类 · Arbitrage = zero cost, no loss, chance of gain; LOOP = same payoff -> same price - price(X) = price(replicating portfolio). I 套利= 零成本、无亏损、有获利机会;LOOP= 相同 payoff →相同价格 → price(X)= price(复制组合)。 I 例行流程:把 payoff 列表 → 找出折点(= option)→识别 strike、到期日 & 谁持有它→组装各腿→ 定价 & 求和。 · Convertible = straight bond + call: CBo = Bo + Co (issuer-callable -+ -Co). Risk-insensitive: bond leg down, call leg up. I Convertible = straight bond + call:(issuer-callable →)。对风险不敏感:bond 腿下降,call 腿上升。 I Bull-spread warrant = long call(低)+ zero - short call(高);需发行数量 = 募资额÷ warrant 价值。 · Bond arbitrage: bootstrap yt from zeros - re-price at spots - if mispriced, state the buy/short trade + the riskless profit. 债券套利:从 zeros bootstrap → 在 spots 重新定价→若定价错误,说明买入/卖空交易+无风险利润。 ● 套利=零成本、无损失、有获利机会;LOOP =相同回报→相同价格→ price(X)= price(复制组合)。 ● 流程:列出回报表 →找出折点(=期权)→确定行权价、到期日 &谁持有它→组装各条腿→定价并求和。 ● 可转债 =直债+看涨期权:CBo = Bo+Co(发行人可赎回→-Co)。对风险不敏感:债券腿下跌,看涨期权腿上 涨。 · 牛市价差认股权证= 多头看涨(低)+零 一空头看涨(高);要发行的数量=筹资额÷认股权证价值。 ● 债券套利:从零息债券 bootstrap 出 yt → 按即期利率重新定价→如果定价错误,说明买入/做空交易+无风险利 润。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR CLASSES 3-4 . THE BRING-IN-A4 CORE The model selector - pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet 模型选择器––在翻公式表之前先选好模型 Two switches decide every DCF question: leverage shape, then ITS risk 两个开关决定每道 DCF 题:杠杆形态,然后是 ITS 风险 TL;DR. The exam hands you the formula sheet, so the marks are not in recalling ks or ky - they are in choosing the right model and pairing the right cash flow with the right rate. Ask two questions, in order. (1) How does leverage behave? A constant target ratio - Standard WACC; a fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with k, = ku); a changing ratio or changing operating risk ku > Recursive Standard WACC. (2) How risky are the interest tax shields? Rebalance-to-ratio -> kits = ku; a fixed schedule ++ kits = kd. Get those two right and the sheet does the arithmetic. TL;DR。考试把公式表交给你,所以分数不在回忆 或 -- 而在选对模型并把对的现金流与对的率配对。按顺序问两个问题。(1) 杠杆如何变化?一个恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;一份固定美元债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(带);一个变动的比率或变 动的经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。(2)利息税盾有多大风险?再平衡到比率→;固定计划表→。把这两个弄对, 公式表会做算术。
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这章怎么识别
-
标准流程
-
1)Convertible
- 文件明确给出:
- convertible = straight bond + call
- 如果是 issuer-callable,要注意符号变化[3]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfAskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 9 回忆清单 -- 第9类 | 三个价值来源:竞争优势(可持续的)、增长期权(未来灵活性)、稀释(分蛋糕)。 · Wealth-transfer rule: Nnew X (Vfair - Pissue) - zero at fair value, positive (to new owners) when under-priced. I 财富转移规则: -- 公允价值时为零,定价过低时为正(给新所有者)。 · Method: cum value per share - add new cash & new shares - ex value per share - per-owner $ change. I 方法:cum 每股价值 →加入新现金 &新股→ ex 每股价值→每个所有者的$ 变化。 · %-dilution (everyone non-participating) # value dilution (below-value issues only). %-稀释(人人未参与)≠ 价值稀释(仅低于价值的发行)。 两个价格=不同公允价值/内部-vs-外部/蓄意转移;输家是未参与的所有者。 · Remedy: pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. 补救:公司章程里的 pre-emptive right / anti-dilution 条款。 ● 价值的三个来源:竞争优势(持续的 ROIC>ku)、增长期权(未来的灵活性)、稀释(分割饼)。 财富转移规则:Nnew ×(Vfair - Pissue)–– 在公允价值时为零,在定价偏低时为正(流向新股东)。 ● 方法:除权前每股价值→加入新现金 &新股→除权后每股价值→每位股东的 $ 变化。 · %-稀释(每一个不参与认购的人)≠价值稀释(仅限低于价值的发行)。 ● 两个价格= 不同的公允价值/内部人 vs 外部人/蓄意转移;受损方是 不参与认购的 股东。 ● 补救:章程里的优先认购权 / 反稀释条款。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 10 . REPLICATION VALUATION BY REPLICATION CLASS 10 . THE HYBRIDS CHAPTER If two assets pay the same, they must cost the same 若两项资产支付相同,则它们必定成本相同 arbitrage & the Law of One Price . convertible = bond + call 套利与 Law of One Price · 可转债 = 债券 + call TL;DR. When a security has a kinked payoff - a convertible, a warrant, a bond-with-warrants - you do not need a fresh discount-rate model. You replicate it: build a portfolio of things you can price (a straight bond + calls/puts + a zero-coupon bond) whose payoff matches the security in every future state, then by the Law of One Price the security must cost exactly what that portfolio costs. The kink is the tell - it always hides an option. TL;DR。当一个证券有带折点的收益 ---- 只可转债、一份认股权证、一只附认股权证的债券 -- 时,你不需要一个全新的折 现率模型。你复制它:构建一个由你能够定价的东西(一只直债+若干 call/put+一只零息债券)组成的组合,使其收益在每一个 未来状态都与该证券吻合,那么根据 Law of One Price,该证券的成本必定恰好等于那个组合的成本。折点就是线索 -- 它总 是藏着一个期权。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 10 is heavily examined in the 65% final and is the one place the formula sheet does not rescue you - there is no "hybrid formula", only the method. The recurring types: (i) value a convertible / callable-into-shares bond by LOOP (bond leg ± an option leg read off a given grid); (ii) how many bull-spread warrants to issue to raise a target sum; (iii) bond arbitrage from a zero-coupon price schedule - bootstrap spot rates, re-price, and state the trade. Put the cue - decompose - LOOP routine on your bring-in A4, not a formula. Reading-time triage: a kinked payoff or the word convertible / warrant / arbitrage - this chapter. Class 10 在 65% 期末考里 考得很多,而且是公式表 救不了你的唯一地方 -- 这里没有“混合证券公式”,只有 方法。 反复出现的题型:(i)用 LOOP 为可转债/可转股债券估值(债券腿±从给定网格中读出的一条期权腿);(ii)要发行多 少张牛市价差认股权证 才能筹到目标金额;(iii)从零息债券价格表做 债券套利 -- bootstrap 出即期利率、重新定价, 并 说明交易。把 信号→拆解→ LOOP 这套流程放到你可带入的A4 纸上,而非一个公式。阅读时间分诊:一个带折 点的回报,或 convertible / warrant / arbitrage 这几个词→本章。[13]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfIf the traded price were instead above $1,001. 05, flip it: short the coupon bond, buy the replicating zeros. The marks are in naming the buy/short legs and the locked-in number - never just "an arbitrage exists". 如果交易价格反而高于$1,001. 05,就反过来:卖空附息债券,买入用于复制的零息债券。分数在于点名买入/卖空的各腿以 及锁定的那个数 -- 绝不要只说“存在一个套利”。 ! Single yield # spot rates ¥- yield # spot rates Pricing a coupon bond at one flat yield when the term structure slopes is the classic error - discount each promised cash flow at its own matching spot rate. And never stop at "arbitrage exists": the question "what should you do?" wants the explicit buy / short trade and the riskless profit. 当 期限结构有斜率 时却按一个统一收益率为附息债券定价,是经典的错误 -- 要按每一笔承诺现金流 各自匹配的即期 利率 来折现。而且绝不要停在“存在套利”上:“你应该怎么做?”这个问题要的是明确的 买入/做空交易 以及 无风险利 润。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 10 回忆清单 -- 第 10类 · Arbitrage = zero cost, no loss, chance of gain; LOOP = same payoff -> same price - price(X) = price(replicating portfolio). I 套利= 零成本、无亏损、有获利机会;LOOP= 相同 payoff →相同价格 → price(X)= price(复制组合)。 I 例行流程:把 payoff 列表 → 找出折点(= option)→识别 strike、到期日 & 谁持有它→组装各腿→ 定价 & 求和。 · Convertible = straight bond + call: CBo = Bo + Co (issuer-callable -+ -Co). Risk-insensitive: bond leg down, call leg up. I Convertible = straight bond + call:(issuer-callable →)。对风险不敏感:bond 腿下降,call 腿上升。 I Bull-spread warrant = long call(低)+ zero - short call(高);需发行数量 = 募资额÷ warrant 价值。 · Bond arbitrage: bootstrap yt from zeros - re-price at spots - if mispriced, state the buy/short trade + the riskless profit. 债券套利:从 zeros bootstrap → 在 spots 重新定价→若定价错误,说明买入/卖空交易+无风险利润。 ● 套利=零成本、无损失、有获利机会;LOOP =相同回报→相同价格→ price(X)= price(复制组合)。 ● 流程:列出回报表 →找出折点(=期权)→确定行权价、到期日 &谁持有它→组装各条腿→定价并求和。 ● 可转债 =直债+看涨期权:CBo = Bo+Co(发行人可赎回→-Co)。对风险不敏感:债券腿下跌,看涨期权腿上 涨。 · 牛市价差认股权证= 多头看涨(低)+零 一空头看涨(高);要发行的数量=筹资额÷认股权证价值。 ● 债券套利:从零息债券 bootstrap 出 yt → 按即期利率重新定价→如果定价错误,说明买入/做空交易+无风险利 润。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR CLASSES 3-4 . THE BRING-IN-A4 CORE The model selector - pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet 模型选择器––在翻公式表之前先选好模型 Two switches decide every DCF question: leverage shape, then ITS risk 两个开关决定每道 DCF 题:杠杆形态,然后是 ITS 风险 TL;DR. The exam hands you the formula sheet, so the marks are not in recalling ks or ky - they are in choosing the right model and pairing the right cash flow with the right rate. Ask two questions, in order. (1) How does leverage behave? A constant target ratio - Standard WACC; a fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with k, = ku); a changing ratio or changing operating risk ku > Recursive Standard WACC. (2) How risky are the interest tax shields? Rebalance-to-ratio -> kits = ku; a fixed schedule ++ kits = kd. Get those two right and the sheet does the arithmetic. TL;DR。考试把公式表交给你,所以分数不在回忆 或 -- 而在选对模型并把对的现金流与对的率配对。按顺序问两个问题。(1) 杠杆如何变化?一个恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;一份固定美元债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(带);一个变动的比率或变 动的经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。(2)利息税盾有多大风险?再平衡到比率→;固定计划表→。把这两个弄对, 公式表会做算术。
-
2)Bull-spread warrant
-
3)Bond arbitrage
- 要做:
- 从 zero-coupon 价格 bootstrap spot rates
- 用 spot curve 重新给 coupon bond 定价
- 若 mispriced,明确写交易[3]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfAskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 9 回忆清单 -- 第9类 | 三个价值来源:竞争优势(可持续的)、增长期权(未来灵活性)、稀释(分蛋糕)。 · Wealth-transfer rule: Nnew X (Vfair - Pissue) - zero at fair value, positive (to new owners) when under-priced. I 财富转移规则: -- 公允价值时为零,定价过低时为正(给新所有者)。 · Method: cum value per share - add new cash & new shares - ex value per share - per-owner $ change. I 方法:cum 每股价值 →加入新现金 &新股→ ex 每股价值→每个所有者的$ 变化。 · %-dilution (everyone non-participating) # value dilution (below-value issues only). %-稀释(人人未参与)≠ 价值稀释(仅低于价值的发行)。 两个价格=不同公允价值/内部-vs-外部/蓄意转移;输家是未参与的所有者。 · Remedy: pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. 补救:公司章程里的 pre-emptive right / anti-dilution 条款。 ● 价值的三个来源:竞争优势(持续的 ROIC>ku)、增长期权(未来的灵活性)、稀释(分割饼)。 财富转移规则:Nnew ×(Vfair - Pissue)–– 在公允价值时为零,在定价偏低时为正(流向新股东)。 ● 方法:除权前每股价值→加入新现金 &新股→除权后每股价值→每位股东的 $ 变化。 · %-稀释(每一个不参与认购的人)≠价值稀释(仅限低于价值的发行)。 ● 两个价格= 不同的公允价值/内部人 vs 外部人/蓄意转移;受损方是 不参与认购的 股东。 ● 补救:章程里的优先认购权 / 反稀释条款。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 10 . REPLICATION VALUATION BY REPLICATION CLASS 10 . THE HYBRIDS CHAPTER If two assets pay the same, they must cost the same 若两项资产支付相同,则它们必定成本相同 arbitrage & the Law of One Price . convertible = bond + call 套利与 Law of One Price · 可转债 = 债券 + call TL;DR. When a security has a kinked payoff - a convertible, a warrant, a bond-with-warrants - you do not need a fresh discount-rate model. You replicate it: build a portfolio of things you can price (a straight bond + calls/puts + a zero-coupon bond) whose payoff matches the security in every future state, then by the Law of One Price the security must cost exactly what that portfolio costs. The kink is the tell - it always hides an option. TL;DR。当一个证券有带折点的收益 ---- 只可转债、一份认股权证、一只附认股权证的债券 -- 时,你不需要一个全新的折 现率模型。你复制它:构建一个由你能够定价的东西(一只直债+若干 call/put+一只零息债券)组成的组合,使其收益在每一个 未来状态都与该证券吻合,那么根据 Law of One Price,该证券的成本必定恰好等于那个组合的成本。折点就是线索 -- 它总 是藏着一个期权。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 10 is heavily examined in the 65% final and is the one place the formula sheet does not rescue you - there is no "hybrid formula", only the method. The recurring types: (i) value a convertible / callable-into-shares bond by LOOP (bond leg ± an option leg read off a given grid); (ii) how many bull-spread warrants to issue to raise a target sum; (iii) bond arbitrage from a zero-coupon price schedule - bootstrap spot rates, re-price, and state the trade. Put the cue - decompose - LOOP routine on your bring-in A4, not a formula. Reading-time triage: a kinked payoff or the word convertible / warrant / arbitrage - this chapter. Class 10 在 65% 期末考里 考得很多,而且是公式表 救不了你的唯一地方 -- 这里没有“混合证券公式”,只有 方法。 反复出现的题型:(i)用 LOOP 为可转债/可转股债券估值(债券腿±从给定网格中读出的一条期权腿);(ii)要发行多 少张牛市价差认股权证 才能筹到目标金额;(iii)从零息债券价格表做 债券套利 -- bootstrap 出即期利率、重新定价, 并 说明交易。把 信号→拆解→ LOOP 这套流程放到你可带入的A4 纸上,而非一个公式。阅读时间分诊:一个带折 点的回报,或 convertible / warrant / arbitrage 这几个词→本章。[13]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfIf the traded price were instead above $1,001. 05, flip it: short the coupon bond, buy the replicating zeros. The marks are in naming the buy/short legs and the locked-in number - never just "an arbitrage exists". 如果交易价格反而高于$1,001. 05,就反过来:卖空附息债券,买入用于复制的零息债券。分数在于点名买入/卖空的各腿以 及锁定的那个数 -- 绝不要只说“存在一个套利”。 ! Single yield # spot rates ¥- yield # spot rates Pricing a coupon bond at one flat yield when the term structure slopes is the classic error - discount each promised cash flow at its own matching spot rate. And never stop at "arbitrage exists": the question "what should you do?" wants the explicit buy / short trade and the riskless profit. 当 期限结构有斜率 时却按一个统一收益率为附息债券定价,是经典的错误 -- 要按每一笔承诺现金流 各自匹配的即期 利率 来折现。而且绝不要停在“存在套利”上:“你应该怎么做?”这个问题要的是明确的 买入/做空交易 以及 无风险利 润。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 10 回忆清单 -- 第 10类 · Arbitrage = zero cost, no loss, chance of gain; LOOP = same payoff -> same price - price(X) = price(replicating portfolio). I 套利= 零成本、无亏损、有获利机会;LOOP= 相同 payoff →相同价格 → price(X)= price(复制组合)。 I 例行流程:把 payoff 列表 → 找出折点(= option)→识别 strike、到期日 & 谁持有它→组装各腿→ 定价 & 求和。 · Convertible = straight bond + call: CBo = Bo + Co (issuer-callable -+ -Co). Risk-insensitive: bond leg down, call leg up. I Convertible = straight bond + call:(issuer-callable →)。对风险不敏感:bond 腿下降,call 腿上升。 I Bull-spread warrant = long call(低)+ zero - short call(高);需发行数量 = 募资额÷ warrant 价值。 · Bond arbitrage: bootstrap yt from zeros - re-price at spots - if mispriced, state the buy/short trade + the riskless profit. 债券套利:从 zeros bootstrap → 在 spots 重新定价→若定价错误,说明买入/卖空交易+无风险利润。 ● 套利=零成本、无损失、有获利机会;LOOP =相同回报→相同价格→ price(X)= price(复制组合)。 ● 流程:列出回报表 →找出折点(=期权)→确定行权价、到期日 &谁持有它→组装各条腿→定价并求和。 ● 可转债 =直债+看涨期权:CBo = Bo+Co(发行人可赎回→-Co)。对风险不敏感:债券腿下跌,看涨期权腿上 涨。 · 牛市价差认股权证= 多头看涨(低)+零 一空头看涨(高);要发行的数量=筹资额÷认股权证价值。 ● 债券套利:从零息债券 bootstrap 出 yt → 按即期利率重新定价→如果定价错误,说明买入/做空交易+无风险利 润。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR CLASSES 3-4 . THE BRING-IN-A4 CORE The model selector - pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet 模型选择器––在翻公式表之前先选好模型 Two switches decide every DCF question: leverage shape, then ITS risk 两个开关决定每道 DCF 题:杠杆形态,然后是 ITS 风险 TL;DR. The exam hands you the formula sheet, so the marks are not in recalling ks or ky - they are in choosing the right model and pairing the right cash flow with the right rate. Ask two questions, in order. (1) How does leverage behave? A constant target ratio - Standard WACC; a fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with k, = ku); a changing ratio or changing operating risk ku > Recursive Standard WACC. (2) How risky are the interest tax shields? Rebalance-to-ratio -> kits = ku; a fixed schedule ++ kits = kd. Get those two right and the sheet does the arithmetic. TL;DR。考试把公式表交给你,所以分数不在回忆 或 -- 而在选对模型并把对的现金流与对的率配对。按顺序问两个问题。(1) 杠杆如何变化?一个恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;一份固定美元债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(带);一个变动的比率或变 动的经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。(2)利息税盾有多大风险?再平衡到比率→;固定计划表→。把这两个弄对, 公式表会做算术。
- 要做:
-
这里最常见错误
- 用单一 yield 给所有现金流折现,而不是用各自匹配的 spot rates
- 只说“存在套利”,不写:
- 买什么
- 空什么
- 锁定利润是多少[13]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfIf the traded price were instead above $1,001. 05, flip it: short the coupon bond, buy the replicating zeros. The marks are in naming the buy/short legs and the locked-in number - never just "an arbitrage exists". 如果交易价格反而高于$1,001. 05,就反过来:卖空附息债券,买入用于复制的零息债券。分数在于点名买入/卖空的各腿以 及锁定的那个数 -- 绝不要只说“存在一个套利”。 ! Single yield # spot rates ¥- yield # spot rates Pricing a coupon bond at one flat yield when the term structure slopes is the classic error - discount each promised cash flow at its own matching spot rate. And never stop at "arbitrage exists": the question "what should you do?" wants the explicit buy / short trade and the riskless profit. 当 期限结构有斜率 时却按一个统一收益率为附息债券定价,是经典的错误 -- 要按每一笔承诺现金流 各自匹配的即期 利率 来折现。而且绝不要停在“存在套利”上:“你应该怎么做?”这个问题要的是明确的 买入/做空交易 以及 无风险利 润。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 10 回忆清单 -- 第 10类 · Arbitrage = zero cost, no loss, chance of gain; LOOP = same payoff -> same price - price(X) = price(replicating portfolio). I 套利= 零成本、无亏损、有获利机会;LOOP= 相同 payoff →相同价格 → price(X)= price(复制组合)。 I 例行流程:把 payoff 列表 → 找出折点(= option)→识别 strike、到期日 & 谁持有它→组装各腿→ 定价 & 求和。 · Convertible = straight bond + call: CBo = Bo + Co (issuer-callable -+ -Co). Risk-insensitive: bond leg down, call leg up. I Convertible = straight bond + call:(issuer-callable →)。对风险不敏感:bond 腿下降,call 腿上升。 I Bull-spread warrant = long call(低)+ zero - short call(高);需发行数量 = 募资额÷ warrant 价值。 · Bond arbitrage: bootstrap yt from zeros - re-price at spots - if mispriced, state the buy/short trade + the riskless profit. 债券套利:从 zeros bootstrap → 在 spots 重新定价→若定价错误,说明买入/卖空交易+无风险利润。 ● 套利=零成本、无损失、有获利机会;LOOP =相同回报→相同价格→ price(X)= price(复制组合)。 ● 流程:列出回报表 →找出折点(=期权)→确定行权价、到期日 &谁持有它→组装各条腿→定价并求和。 ● 可转债 =直债+看涨期权:CBo = Bo+Co(发行人可赎回→-Co)。对风险不敏感:债券腿下跌,看涨期权腿上 涨。 · 牛市价差认股权证= 多头看涨(低)+零 一空头看涨(高);要发行的数量=筹资额÷认股权证价值。 ● 债券套利:从零息债券 bootstrap 出 yt → 按即期利率重新定价→如果定价错误,说明买入/做空交易+无风险利 润。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR CLASSES 3-4 . THE BRING-IN-A4 CORE The model selector - pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet 模型选择器––在翻公式表之前先选好模型 Two switches decide every DCF question: leverage shape, then ITS risk 两个开关决定每道 DCF 题:杠杆形态,然后是 ITS 风险 TL;DR. The exam hands you the formula sheet, so the marks are not in recalling ks or ky - they are in choosing the right model and pairing the right cash flow with the right rate. Ask two questions, in order. (1) How does leverage behave? A constant target ratio - Standard WACC; a fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with k, = ku); a changing ratio or changing operating risk ku > Recursive Standard WACC. (2) How risky are the interest tax shields? Rebalance-to-ratio -> kits = ku; a fixed schedule ++ kits = kd. Get those two right and the sheet does the arithmetic. TL;DR。考试把公式表交给你,所以分数不在回忆 或 -- 而在选对模型并把对的现金流与对的率配对。按顺序问两个问题。(1) 杠杆如何变化?一个恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;一份固定美元债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(带);一个变动的比率或变 动的经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。(2)利息税盾有多大风险?再平衡到比率→;固定计划表→。把这两个弄对, 公式表会做算术。[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
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十六、考试范围内外:你别复习错
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当前文件支持的范围是:
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可考范围
- Classes 2–10[6]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfTL;DR. The exam gives you the formula sheet, so marks are won on knowing which model a cue points to, not on recall. This bank pairs every term with its +X and a one-line meaning written as a trigger - read the right-hand column as "the moment I see this, I reach for that. " Use it to translate a question stem into a model in the 15-minute reading time. TL;DR。考试把公式表给你,所以分数赢在知道一个线索指向哪个模型,而非默写。这个库把每个术语与它的中文及一行式含义 配对,后者写成一个触发器 -- 把右栏读作“我一看到这个,就去拿那个。”用它在15分钟阅读时间里把一个题干翻译成一个模 型。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 These terms are the vocabulary of the 65% final (180 min + 15 min reading; bring-in A4 + a provided formula sheet). The exam tests concepts and calculations, no algebraic derivations - so the graded skill is choosing the right (cash-flow, discount-rate) pair from a cue. Examined scope = Classes 2-10; Class 1 Framework, Workshop 6 Part B and Class 11 Imputation are not examinable. 这些术语是65% final(180 分钟+15 分钟阅读;bring-in A4+一张提供的 formula sheet)的词汇表。这场考试考概念和 计算,不考代数推导 -- 所以打分的技能是从一条线索里选出对的(现金流、折现率)配对。考查范围= Class 2-10;Class 1 Framework、Workshop 6 Part B 和 Class 11 Imputation 不考。 Term (EN) 中文 One-line meaning (method & when to use) Cash flows & DCF foundations (W2) Free cash flow (FCF) 自由现金流 EBIT + DEP - CAPEX - AWC - tax; cash to all investors and it already contains the interest tax shield. Unlevered FCF (FCFU) 无杠杆自由现 金流 FCF with the ITS stripped out (FCF - Y. T) - the cash an all-equity firm makes; pair it with ks. FCFE (FCF to equity) 股权自由现金 流 Residual to shareholders after interest and net principal; discount at ke to value equity directly. Interest tax shield (ITS) 利息税盾 Y. T - tax saved because interest is deductible; its risk (ky vs kd) is the switch behind every WACC. Dividend discount model (DDM) 股利折现模型 Value equity off dividends, not FCFE; needs a surplus-cash / surplus-liability fix whenever dividend # FCFE. Gordon / constant- growth 戈登(固定增 长) 模型 D1+(ke-g); valid only when ke > g - the steady-state shortcut for a perpetuity. Perpetuity / growing perpetuity 永续年金/增 长永续 C+r and C1+(r-g); the value sits at time t, one period before the first cash flow.[8]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfWalk in ready 10 The model selector the master decision tree . the 4 matching pairs . which method, when → 11 Glossary & formula map every term, one line each · bilingual . what each provided formula is for → 12 Practice bank & solutions the recurring exam templates (2020-2025 DNA) on our own firms → AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual i Why this order - and what is in / out of scope 为什么是这个顺序 -- 以及范围之内/之外是什么 The subject builds strictly. Part I sets the engine - equity DCF, then the enterprise DCF and the three WACC models that are the course's signature. Part II feeds the engine - estimate the discount rates (CAPM, beta levering, credit spreads) and handle the messy real-world items. Part III cross-checks and replaces the DCF where needed - multiples, where value comes from, and no-arbitrage valuation of hybrids. Examined scope = Classes 2-10. The Class 1 framework (takeovers, the 20% rule, Independent Expert Reports), Workshop 6 Part B (the integrated model) and Class 11 (imputation - you may ignore the imputation formulae on the provided sheet) are non-examinable and appear here only as context. 这门课严格地层层搭建。第一部分搭起引擎 -- 先是股权 DCF,然后是企业 DCF 以及作为本课招牌的三个 WACC 模 型。第二部分给引擎供料 -- 估计折现率(CAPM、beta 加杠杆、credit spread)并处理那些杂乱的现实世界项目。第三 部分交叉验证并在必要处替换 DCF -- 倍数、价值从何而来,以及混合工具的无套利估值。可考范围=第 2-10 课。第1 课框架(收购、20% 规则、独立专家报告)、Workshop 6 Part B(整合模型)与第 11课(imputation -- 你可以忽略所提供 公式表上的 imputation 公式)不可考,在此仅作为背景出现。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 2 . EQUITY DCF - CLASS 2 . EQUITY DCF W2 . THE BUILDING BLOCK Equity valuation by DCF & the four cash-flow measures 用 DCF 做股权估值与四种现金流口径 FCF, unlevered FCF and FCFE - one cascade, three answers FCF、无杠杆 FCF 与 FCFE -- 一条级联,三个答案 TL;DR. A DCF says value today = the present value of expected future cash flows discounted at a rate that reflects their risk. The trick of the whole course is choosing which cash flow and pairing it with the matching discount rate. Class 2 sets up the three cash-flow measures - FCF, unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCFE - and the equity models (FCFE model & DDM) you build on them. TL;DR。一个 DCF 说的是:今天的价值=预期未来现金流以反映其风险的折现率折现后的现值。整门课的诀窍在于选择哪一 种现金流,并把它与匹配的折现率配对。第2课搭起三种现金流口径 -- FCF、无杠杆 FCF()与 FCFE -- 以及建立在它们之 上的股权模型(FCFE 模型与 DDM)。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 2 is the foundation of the 65% bring-in-A4 final (3h + 15m, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations). The formula sheet is provided - so marks are won on which cash-flow measure to use and what discount rate it pairs with, never on recalling a formula. The examinable hooks: define and reconcile FCF vs FCFU vs FCFE, build FCF from a statement, value equity by the FCFE model and the DDM, and reconcile the two (next page). Put the cash-flow cascade and the four matched (cash-flow, rate) pairs on your A4. 第2 课是这场 65% 带入-A4 期末(3小时+15分钟,简答概念题+计算题,没有代数推导)的基础。公式表是提供的 - 所以分数赢在用哪种现金流口径以及它配什么折现率,绝不在回忆一个公式。可考的挂钩:界定并对账 FCF vs FCFU vs FCFE、从一张报表搭出 FCF、用 FCFE 模型和 DDM 给股权估值,并对账两者(下一页)。把现金流级联和那四对匹配的 (现金流,率)组合放上你的A4。 2. 1 The DCF idea & its three pillars 2. 1DCF 的理念及其三大支柱 Value is forward-looking and additive: 价值是前瞻的且可加的: Vo => T (1 + r){ Ct t=1 Three pillars justify the discounting. Time value of money - a safe dollar now beats a safe dollar later. Risk aversion - a safe dollar later beats a risky one, so a risk premium is added to r. Value additivity - the PV of a sum equals the sum of the PVs, which lets us value each surplus asset, claim and cash stream separately then add them.
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不考范围
- Class 1 Framework
- Workshop 6 Part B
- Class 11 Imputation[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[6]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfTL;DR. The exam gives you the formula sheet, so marks are won on knowing which model a cue points to, not on recall. This bank pairs every term with its +X and a one-line meaning written as a trigger - read the right-hand column as "the moment I see this, I reach for that. " Use it to translate a question stem into a model in the 15-minute reading time. TL;DR。考试把公式表给你,所以分数赢在知道一个线索指向哪个模型,而非默写。这个库把每个术语与它的中文及一行式含义 配对,后者写成一个触发器 -- 把右栏读作“我一看到这个,就去拿那个。”用它在15分钟阅读时间里把一个题干翻译成一个模 型。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 These terms are the vocabulary of the 65% final (180 min + 15 min reading; bring-in A4 + a provided formula sheet). The exam tests concepts and calculations, no algebraic derivations - so the graded skill is choosing the right (cash-flow, discount-rate) pair from a cue. Examined scope = Classes 2-10; Class 1 Framework, Workshop 6 Part B and Class 11 Imputation are not examinable. 这些术语是65% final(180 分钟+15 分钟阅读;bring-in A4+一张提供的 formula sheet)的词汇表。这场考试考概念和 计算,不考代数推导 -- 所以打分的技能是从一条线索里选出对的(现金流、折现率)配对。考查范围= Class 2-10;Class 1 Framework、Workshop 6 Part B 和 Class 11 Imputation 不考。 Term (EN) 中文 One-line meaning (method & when to use) Cash flows & DCF foundations (W2) Free cash flow (FCF) 自由现金流 EBIT + DEP - CAPEX - AWC - tax; cash to all investors and it already contains the interest tax shield. Unlevered FCF (FCFU) 无杠杆自由现 金流 FCF with the ITS stripped out (FCF - Y. T) - the cash an all-equity firm makes; pair it with ks. FCFE (FCF to equity) 股权自由现金 流 Residual to shareholders after interest and net principal; discount at ke to value equity directly. Interest tax shield (ITS) 利息税盾 Y. T - tax saved because interest is deductible; its risk (ky vs kd) is the switch behind every WACC. Dividend discount model (DDM) 股利折现模型 Value equity off dividends, not FCFE; needs a surplus-cash / surplus-liability fix whenever dividend # FCFE. Gordon / constant- growth 戈登(固定增 长) 模型 D1+(ke-g); valid only when ke > g - the steady-state shortcut for a perpetuity. Perpetuity / growing perpetuity 永续年金/增 长永续 C+r and C1+(r-g); the value sits at time t, one period before the first cash flow.[8]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfWalk in ready 10 The model selector the master decision tree . the 4 matching pairs . which method, when → 11 Glossary & formula map every term, one line each · bilingual . what each provided formula is for → 12 Practice bank & solutions the recurring exam templates (2020-2025 DNA) on our own firms → AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual i Why this order - and what is in / out of scope 为什么是这个顺序 -- 以及范围之内/之外是什么 The subject builds strictly. Part I sets the engine - equity DCF, then the enterprise DCF and the three WACC models that are the course's signature. Part II feeds the engine - estimate the discount rates (CAPM, beta levering, credit spreads) and handle the messy real-world items. Part III cross-checks and replaces the DCF where needed - multiples, where value comes from, and no-arbitrage valuation of hybrids. Examined scope = Classes 2-10. The Class 1 framework (takeovers, the 20% rule, Independent Expert Reports), Workshop 6 Part B (the integrated model) and Class 11 (imputation - you may ignore the imputation formulae on the provided sheet) are non-examinable and appear here only as context. 这门课严格地层层搭建。第一部分搭起引擎 -- 先是股权 DCF,然后是企业 DCF 以及作为本课招牌的三个 WACC 模 型。第二部分给引擎供料 -- 估计折现率(CAPM、beta 加杠杆、credit spread)并处理那些杂乱的现实世界项目。第三 部分交叉验证并在必要处替换 DCF -- 倍数、价值从何而来,以及混合工具的无套利估值。可考范围=第 2-10 课。第1 课框架(收购、20% 规则、独立专家报告)、Workshop 6 Part B(整合模型)与第 11课(imputation -- 你可以忽略所提供 公式表上的 imputation 公式)不可考,在此仅作为背景出现。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 2 . EQUITY DCF - CLASS 2 . EQUITY DCF W2 . THE BUILDING BLOCK Equity valuation by DCF & the four cash-flow measures 用 DCF 做股权估值与四种现金流口径 FCF, unlevered FCF and FCFE - one cascade, three answers FCF、无杠杆 FCF 与 FCFE -- 一条级联,三个答案 TL;DR. A DCF says value today = the present value of expected future cash flows discounted at a rate that reflects their risk. The trick of the whole course is choosing which cash flow and pairing it with the matching discount rate. Class 2 sets up the three cash-flow measures - FCF, unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCFE - and the equity models (FCFE model & DDM) you build on them. TL;DR。一个 DCF 说的是:今天的价值=预期未来现金流以反映其风险的折现率折现后的现值。整门课的诀窍在于选择哪一 种现金流,并把它与匹配的折现率配对。第2课搭起三种现金流口径 -- FCF、无杠杆 FCF()与 FCFE -- 以及建立在它们之 上的股权模型(FCFE 模型与 DDM)。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 2 is the foundation of the 65% bring-in-A4 final (3h + 15m, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations). The formula sheet is provided - so marks are won on which cash-flow measure to use and what discount rate it pairs with, never on recalling a formula. The examinable hooks: define and reconcile FCF vs FCFU vs FCFE, build FCF from a statement, value equity by the FCFE model and the DDM, and reconcile the two (next page). Put the cash-flow cascade and the four matched (cash-flow, rate) pairs on your A4. 第2 课是这场 65% 带入-A4 期末(3小时+15分钟,简答概念题+计算题,没有代数推导)的基础。公式表是提供的 - 所以分数赢在用哪种现金流口径以及它配什么折现率,绝不在回忆一个公式。可考的挂钩:界定并对账 FCF vs FCFU vs FCFE、从一张报表搭出 FCF、用 FCFE 模型和 DDM 给股权估值,并对账两者(下一页)。把现金流级联和那四对匹配的 (现金流,率)组合放上你的A4。 2. 1 The DCF idea & its three pillars 2. 1DCF 的理念及其三大支柱 Value is forward-looking and additive: 价值是前瞻的且可加的: Vo => T (1 + r){ Ct t=1 Three pillars justify the discounting. Time value of money - a safe dollar now beats a safe dollar later. Risk aversion - a safe dollar later beats a risky one, so a risk premium is added to r. Value additivity - the PV of a sum equals the sum of the PVs, which lets us value each surplus asset, claim and cash stream separately then add them.
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这个很重要,因为你时间不够时,别把力气花在不考的地方。
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十七、你真正该背的“定义/一句话考点”
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我给你整理成最适合 final 简答题的版本:
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DCF
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FCF
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FCFU
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FCFE
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ITS
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DDM
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Gordon model
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Standard WACC
- 适用于恒定目标杠杆比率。[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[9]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 This is the single most valuable page in the bible. The 65% written final (180 min + 15 min reading, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations) is decided question-by-question by this selector. The formula sheet is provided; a non-programmable Casio FX82 and one double-sided A4 of your own notes are your only aids - so your A4 must carry this decision logic, not the formulas. Mis-read the leverage switch and the provided sheet will not save you: you will discount a changing-leverage project at one ks (wrong) or grind a constant-ratio firm recursively (slow, error-prone). 这是整本 bible 里最有价值的一页。这场65% 的笔试 final(180 分钟+15分钟阅读时间,简答概念+计算,不考代数推 导)是靠这张选择器逐题决定的。formula sheet 是提供的;一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 和一张你自己的双面 A4 笔记是 你仅有的辅助 -- 所以你的A4 必须承载这套决策逻辑,而不是那些公式。看错杠杆的开关,提供的公式表也救不了你:你会 用一个(错的)single 去折现一个杠杆在变的项目,或者把一个 constant-ratio 公司递归地硬磨(慢、易错)。 s. 1 Switch 1 - how does leverage behave? S. 1开关 1 -- 杠杆如何变化? Read the stem for the shape of the debt. Three shapes, three models. The whole WACC family is one decision tree: 读题干找债务的形态。三种形态,三个模型。整个 WACC 家族就是一棵决策树: AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG S. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model selector. The root question is the shape of leverage; each branch fixes the model and the matched (cash-flow, rate) pair. The gold strip is the second switch - the risk of the interest tax shields. Memorise this picture; the formula sheet supplies the rest. WACC 模型选择器。根问题是杠杆的形态;每个分支确定模型和配对的(现金流、利率)组合。金色那条带是第二个开关 -- ITS 的风险。把这张图背下来;formula sheet 提供其余部分。
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Vanilla WACC
- 适用于固定债务金额路径。[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[9]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 This is the single most valuable page in the bible. The 65% written final (180 min + 15 min reading, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations) is decided question-by-question by this selector. The formula sheet is provided; a non-programmable Casio FX82 and one double-sided A4 of your own notes are your only aids - so your A4 must carry this decision logic, not the formulas. Mis-read the leverage switch and the provided sheet will not save you: you will discount a changing-leverage project at one ks (wrong) or grind a constant-ratio firm recursively (slow, error-prone). 这是整本 bible 里最有价值的一页。这场65% 的笔试 final(180 分钟+15分钟阅读时间,简答概念+计算,不考代数推 导)是靠这张选择器逐题决定的。formula sheet 是提供的;一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 和一张你自己的双面 A4 笔记是 你仅有的辅助 -- 所以你的A4 必须承载这套决策逻辑,而不是那些公式。看错杠杆的开关,提供的公式表也救不了你:你会 用一个(错的)single 去折现一个杠杆在变的项目,或者把一个 constant-ratio 公司递归地硬磨(慢、易错)。 s. 1 Switch 1 - how does leverage behave? S. 1开关 1 -- 杠杆如何变化? Read the stem for the shape of the debt. Three shapes, three models. The whole WACC family is one decision tree: 读题干找债务的形态。三种形态,三个模型。整个 WACC 家族就是一棵决策树: AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG S. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model selector. The root question is the shape of leverage; each branch fixes the model and the matched (cash-flow, rate) pair. The gold strip is the second switch - the risk of the interest tax shields. Memorise this picture; the formula sheet supplies the rest. WACC 模型选择器。根问题是杠杆的形态;每个分支确定模型和配对的(现金流、利率)组合。金色那条带是第二个开关 -- ITS 的风险。把这张图背下来;formula sheet 提供其余部分。
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Recursive Standard WACC
- 适用于杠杆或经营风险逐年变化,需要逆推。[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[11]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfClass 4 is the engine room of the 65% final (180 min + 15 reading; Casio FX82, your bring-in A4, and the provided formula sheet). Because the sheet gives every formula, you lose marks only by choosing the wrong model. The two switches: (1) how does leverage behave? - constant ratio-Standard, dollar schedule-Vanilla, changing ratio / changing k -Recursive; (2) ITS risk? - rebalance-to-ratio -> knan=k , fixed schedule -> knon=kn. Past papers: equity from a vanilla EV (2022 Q1), back-out the ITS (2023 Q5), and the recursive value (2025/2023/2021 Q1) on page 3. Class 4 是这场 65% 期末考 的引擎室(180分钟+15 分钟阅读;Casio FX82、你可带入的A4纸,以及 提供的公式 表)。因为公式表给出了每一个公式,所以你只会因 选错模型 而丢分。两个开关:(1)杠杆如何表现 ?-- 恒定比率 →Standard,美元排程→Vanilla,变动比率/变动k→递归;(2) ITS 风险 ?-- 再平衡到比率→ Kn on = ka,固定排 程 → Kn on = kn。历年真题:从 vanilla EV 求股权(2022 Q1)、反推 ITS(2023 Q5),以及递归价值 (2025/2023/2021 Q1),见第3页。 4. 1 One picture decides the model 4. 1一张图决定模型 Every enterprise-DCF question in this subject is a fork. Read the financing policy, pick a branch, and the provided formula sheet does the rest. You will meet the right-hand branch in full on page 3. 本门课中每一道企业 DCF 题都是一个分叉。读懂融资政策、选一条分支,所提供的公式表会做完剩下的。你将在第3页完整 遇到右手那条分支。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG 4. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model-selector - the course's hook. Constant target ratio L (debt rebalanced to Dt=L . Vt) - Standard WACC. Fixed dollar debt schedule (L drifts) - Vanilla WACC, and if knon=ka then kn=ka. Changing ratio or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. The gold strip is the second switch: the risk of the interest tax shields . WACC 模型选择器 -- 这门课的钩子。Constant target ratio L(债务 rebalance 到 Dt=L· Vt)→ Standard WACC。 Fixed dollar debt schedule(L 漂移)→ Vanilla WACC,而如果 kn on=ka 则 kh=ka。 Changing ratio 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。金色那条带是第二个开关:ITS的风险。
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Law of One Price
- 若两个资产未来回报完全相同,它们今天价格必须相同。[3]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfAskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 9 回忆清单 -- 第9类 | 三个价值来源:竞争优势(可持续的)、增长期权(未来灵活性)、稀释(分蛋糕)。 · Wealth-transfer rule: Nnew X (Vfair - Pissue) - zero at fair value, positive (to new owners) when under-priced. I 财富转移规则: -- 公允价值时为零,定价过低时为正(给新所有者)。 · Method: cum value per share - add new cash & new shares - ex value per share - per-owner $ change. I 方法:cum 每股价值 →加入新现金 &新股→ ex 每股价值→每个所有者的$ 变化。 · %-dilution (everyone non-participating) # value dilution (below-value issues only). %-稀释(人人未参与)≠ 价值稀释(仅低于价值的发行)。 两个价格=不同公允价值/内部-vs-外部/蓄意转移;输家是未参与的所有者。 · Remedy: pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. 补救:公司章程里的 pre-emptive right / anti-dilution 条款。 ● 价值的三个来源:竞争优势(持续的 ROIC>ku)、增长期权(未来的灵活性)、稀释(分割饼)。 财富转移规则:Nnew ×(Vfair - Pissue)–– 在公允价值时为零,在定价偏低时为正(流向新股东)。 ● 方法:除权前每股价值→加入新现金 &新股→除权后每股价值→每位股东的 $ 变化。 · %-稀释(每一个不参与认购的人)≠价值稀释(仅限低于价值的发行)。 ● 两个价格= 不同的公允价值/内部人 vs 外部人/蓄意转移;受损方是 不参与认购的 股东。 ● 补救:章程里的优先认购权 / 反稀释条款。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 10 . REPLICATION VALUATION BY REPLICATION CLASS 10 . THE HYBRIDS CHAPTER If two assets pay the same, they must cost the same 若两项资产支付相同,则它们必定成本相同 arbitrage & the Law of One Price . convertible = bond + call 套利与 Law of One Price · 可转债 = 债券 + call TL;DR. When a security has a kinked payoff - a convertible, a warrant, a bond-with-warrants - you do not need a fresh discount-rate model. You replicate it: build a portfolio of things you can price (a straight bond + calls/puts + a zero-coupon bond) whose payoff matches the security in every future state, then by the Law of One Price the security must cost exactly what that portfolio costs. The kink is the tell - it always hides an option. TL;DR。当一个证券有带折点的收益 ---- 只可转债、一份认股权证、一只附认股权证的债券 -- 时,你不需要一个全新的折 现率模型。你复制它:构建一个由你能够定价的东西(一只直债+若干 call/put+一只零息债券)组成的组合,使其收益在每一个 未来状态都与该证券吻合,那么根据 Law of One Price,该证券的成本必定恰好等于那个组合的成本。折点就是线索 -- 它总 是藏着一个期权。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 10 is heavily examined in the 65% final and is the one place the formula sheet does not rescue you - there is no "hybrid formula", only the method. The recurring types: (i) value a convertible / callable-into-shares bond by LOOP (bond leg ± an option leg read off a given grid); (ii) how many bull-spread warrants to issue to raise a target sum; (iii) bond arbitrage from a zero-coupon price schedule - bootstrap spot rates, re-price, and state the trade. Put the cue - decompose - LOOP routine on your bring-in A4, not a formula. Reading-time triage: a kinked payoff or the word convertible / warrant / arbitrage - this chapter. Class 10 在 65% 期末考里 考得很多,而且是公式表 救不了你的唯一地方 -- 这里没有“混合证券公式”,只有 方法。 反复出现的题型:(i)用 LOOP 为可转债/可转股债券估值(债券腿±从给定网格中读出的一条期权腿);(ii)要发行多 少张牛市价差认股权证 才能筹到目标金额;(iii)从零息债券价格表做 债券套利 -- bootstrap 出即期利率、重新定价, 并 说明交易。把 信号→拆解→ LOOP 这套流程放到你可带入的A4 纸上,而非一个公式。阅读时间分诊:一个带折 点的回报,或 convertible / warrant / arbitrage 这几个词→本章。[13]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfIf the traded price were instead above $1,001. 05, flip it: short the coupon bond, buy the replicating zeros. The marks are in naming the buy/short legs and the locked-in number - never just "an arbitrage exists". 如果交易价格反而高于$1,001. 05,就反过来:卖空附息债券,买入用于复制的零息债券。分数在于点名买入/卖空的各腿以 及锁定的那个数 -- 绝不要只说“存在一个套利”。 ! Single yield # spot rates ¥- yield # spot rates Pricing a coupon bond at one flat yield when the term structure slopes is the classic error - discount each promised cash flow at its own matching spot rate. And never stop at "arbitrage exists": the question "what should you do?" wants the explicit buy / short trade and the riskless profit. 当 期限结构有斜率 时却按一个统一收益率为附息债券定价,是经典的错误 -- 要按每一笔承诺现金流 各自匹配的即期 利率 来折现。而且绝不要停在“存在套利”上:“你应该怎么做?”这个问题要的是明确的 买入/做空交易 以及 无风险利 润。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 10 回忆清单 -- 第 10类 · Arbitrage = zero cost, no loss, chance of gain; LOOP = same payoff -> same price - price(X) = price(replicating portfolio). I 套利= 零成本、无亏损、有获利机会;LOOP= 相同 payoff →相同价格 → price(X)= price(复制组合)。 I 例行流程:把 payoff 列表 → 找出折点(= option)→识别 strike、到期日 & 谁持有它→组装各腿→ 定价 & 求和。 · Convertible = straight bond + call: CBo = Bo + Co (issuer-callable -+ -Co). Risk-insensitive: bond leg down, call leg up. I Convertible = straight bond + call:(issuer-callable →)。对风险不敏感:bond 腿下降,call 腿上升。 I Bull-spread warrant = long call(低)+ zero - short call(高);需发行数量 = 募资额÷ warrant 价值。 · Bond arbitrage: bootstrap yt from zeros - re-price at spots - if mispriced, state the buy/short trade + the riskless profit. 债券套利:从 zeros bootstrap → 在 spots 重新定价→若定价错误,说明买入/卖空交易+无风险利润。 ● 套利=零成本、无损失、有获利机会;LOOP =相同回报→相同价格→ price(X)= price(复制组合)。 ● 流程:列出回报表 →找出折点(=期权)→确定行权价、到期日 &谁持有它→组装各条腿→定价并求和。 ● 可转债 =直债+看涨期权:CBo = Bo+Co(发行人可赎回→-Co)。对风险不敏感:债券腿下跌,看涨期权腿上 涨。 · 牛市价差认股权证= 多头看涨(低)+零 一空头看涨(高);要发行的数量=筹资额÷认股权证价值。 ● 债券套利:从零息债券 bootstrap 出 yt → 按即期利率重新定价→如果定价错误,说明买入/做空交易+无风险利 润。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR CLASSES 3-4 . THE BRING-IN-A4 CORE The model selector - pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet 模型选择器––在翻公式表之前先选好模型 Two switches decide every DCF question: leverage shape, then ITS risk 两个开关决定每道 DCF 题:杠杆形态,然后是 ITS 风险 TL;DR. The exam hands you the formula sheet, so the marks are not in recalling ks or ky - they are in choosing the right model and pairing the right cash flow with the right rate. Ask two questions, in order. (1) How does leverage behave? A constant target ratio - Standard WACC; a fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with k, = ku); a changing ratio or changing operating risk ku > Recursive Standard WACC. (2) How risky are the interest tax shields? Rebalance-to-ratio -> kits = ku; a fixed schedule ++ kits = kd. Get those two right and the sheet does the arithmetic. TL;DR。考试把公式表交给你,所以分数不在回忆 或 -- 而在选对模型并把对的现金流与对的率配对。按顺序问两个问题。(1) 杠杆如何变化?一个恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;一份固定美元债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(带);一个变动的比率或变 动的经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。(2)利息税盾有多大风险?再平衡到比率→;固定计划表→。把这两个弄对, 公式表会做算术。
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Arbitrage
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Control premium
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十八、你的一张 A4 应该写什么
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文件其实说得非常明确:不要抄公式,要写方法。[5]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf上面每一行底下都坐着一条规则:折现率必须匹配现金流的风险与时间,以及它被定义的基准。配错了,所提供的公式表就会算出 一个毫无意义的数。把这四对操练到成为条件反射。 Cash flow Pairs with rate Because FCFU - unlevered, no ITS ks (Standard WACC) ITS stripped from BOTH sides FCF - all investors, contains ITS ky (Vanilla WACC) ITS lives in the cash flow FCFE - equity residual ke (FCFE model / DDM) equity cash +> equity rate FCFU + ITS separately ku & kits (APV) operations + financing split ✓ Name the type out loud, then commit 大声说出题型,然后下定决心 In the 15-minute reading time, write the type name beside each question ("recursive", "de-lever beta", "convertible" . . . ). That one label triggers the model, the matched pair and the first three steps from this grid - before the clock on the 180 minutes really starts. 在 15 分钟阅读时间里,在每道题旁写上类型名("recursive”、“de-lever beta"、"convertible" . . . )。那一个标签就触发 了模型、配对组合,以及这张网格里的前三步 -- 在180 分钟的钟真正开始走之前。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR - EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM-CONDITIONS: ONE DOUBLE-SIDED A4 + CASIO FX82 Your bring-in A4 - method & decision logic, not formulas 你带入的 A4 -- 方法与决策逻辑,而非公式 Six zones, a 180-minute triage, and the selector you must draw from memory 六个区域、一份180分钟分诊计划,以及你必须凭记忆画出的选择器 TL;DR. You may bring one double-sided A4 of your own notes and a non-programmable Casio FX82 (the FX-8200 is not permitted); the formula sheet is provided inside the exam (you may ignore the imputation formulae). So do not waste the A4 on formulas you will already be given - fill it with decision logic, worked-step templates and traps. Below is a six-zone layout that mirrors the decoder. TL;DR。你可以带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记和一台不可编程的 Casio FX82(FX-8200 不允许);公式表在考试中提供(你可以 忽略 imputation 公式)。所以不要把A4 浪费在你已经会被给到的公式上 -- 用决策逻辑、分步模板和陷阱把它填满。下面是 一个映射解码器的六区域版式。 i Honour the exam conditions exactly 严格遵守考试条件 Bring-in (one A4 of your own notes) + a provided formula sheet - this is neither closed nor fully open book. Raw formulas are supplied, so they earn you nothing on the A4. Your edge is knowing which model to use and executing it cleanly under time pressure.[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制[12]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBring-in(一张你自己的 A4笔记)+一张提供的 formula sheet -- 这既不是闭卷也不是完全开卷。原始公式是给好的,所 以它们写在 A4 上不会给你加分。你的优势在于知道该用哪个模型,并在时间压力下干净利落地执行它。 s. 4 The six-zone A4 layout S. 4六区域 A4 版式 Zone What goes in it Why it earns marks 1. The selector Switch 1 (ratio / schedule / changing) - model; Switch 2 (kits = ku vs ka) picks the right model in seconds 2. The 4 matched pairs FCFU:kg, FCF:ky, FCFE:ke, APV ku+kits stops the No. 1 error (wrong pairing) 3. Recursive template the 4-row drill: Vn = 0 - per-year ks - roll back - Vo the flagship type, done fast 4. Beta & rate cues de-lever peer, re-lever to you, ka = rf + CS; name MRP as the missing input the market-data WACC question 5. Multiples & surplus PE = equity; EBIT/EBITDA = enterprise; add surplus cash, then less debt; strip one-offs both sides stops level/leverage mix-ups 6. Replication moves payoff table by state; convertible = bond + call; bootstrap yt; state the trade the hybrid & arbitrage marks AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ! Things that look like formulas but are really TRAPS - put these on the A4 那些看起来像公式实则是 TRAPS 陷阱的东西 -- 把这些放上 A4 - 用目标杠杆,绝不用账面/当前比率。 · Never the yield as ka for risky debt (it overstates it).[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
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最推荐你放这 6 区:
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Zone 1:模型选择器
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Zone 2:4 个配对
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Zone 3:Recursive 模板
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Zone 4:beta / rate cues
- de-lever peer
- average
- re-lever to you
- $k_d$ / yield 陷阱[12]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBring-in(一张你自己的 A4笔记)+一张提供的 formula sheet -- 这既不是闭卷也不是完全开卷。原始公式是给好的,所 以它们写在 A4 上不会给你加分。你的优势在于知道该用哪个模型,并在时间压力下干净利落地执行它。 s. 4 The six-zone A4 layout S. 4六区域 A4 版式 Zone What goes in it Why it earns marks 1. The selector Switch 1 (ratio / schedule / changing) - model; Switch 2 (kits = ku vs ka) picks the right model in seconds 2. The 4 matched pairs FCFU:kg, FCF:ky, FCFE:ke, APV ku+kits stops the No. 1 error (wrong pairing) 3. Recursive template the 4-row drill: Vn = 0 - per-year ks - roll back - Vo the flagship type, done fast 4. Beta & rate cues de-lever peer, re-lever to you, ka = rf + CS; name MRP as the missing input the market-data WACC question 5. Multiples & surplus PE = equity; EBIT/EBITDA = enterprise; add surplus cash, then less debt; strip one-offs both sides stops level/leverage mix-ups 6. Replication moves payoff table by state; convertible = bond + call; bootstrap yt; state the trade the hybrid & arbitrage marks AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ! Things that look like formulas but are really TRAPS - put these on the A4 那些看起来像公式实则是 TRAPS 陷阱的东西 -- 把这些放上 A4 - 用目标杠杆,绝不用账面/当前比率。 · Never the yield as ka for risky debt (it overstates it).[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual
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Zone 5:multiples & surplus
- PE=equity
- EBIT/EBITDA=EV
- surplus asset 单独加
- debt 减
- one-offs 两边都剥[12]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBring-in(一张你自己的 A4笔记)+一张提供的 formula sheet -- 这既不是闭卷也不是完全开卷。原始公式是给好的,所 以它们写在 A4 上不会给你加分。你的优势在于知道该用哪个模型,并在时间压力下干净利落地执行它。 s. 4 The six-zone A4 layout S. 4六区域 A4 版式 Zone What goes in it Why it earns marks 1. The selector Switch 1 (ratio / schedule / changing) - model; Switch 2 (kits = ku vs ka) picks the right model in seconds 2. The 4 matched pairs FCFU:kg, FCF:ky, FCFE:ke, APV ku+kits stops the No. 1 error (wrong pairing) 3. Recursive template the 4-row drill: Vn = 0 - per-year ks - roll back - Vo the flagship type, done fast 4. Beta & rate cues de-lever peer, re-lever to you, ka = rf + CS; name MRP as the missing input the market-data WACC question 5. Multiples & surplus PE = equity; EBIT/EBITDA = enterprise; add surplus cash, then less debt; strip one-offs both sides stops level/leverage mix-ups 6. Replication moves payoff table by state; convertible = bond + call; bootstrap yt; state the trade the hybrid & arbitrage marks AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ! Things that look like formulas but are really TRAPS - put these on the A4 那些看起来像公式实则是 TRAPS 陷阱的东西 -- 把这些放上 A4 - 用目标杠杆,绝不用账面/当前比率。 · Never the yield as ka for risky debt (it overstates it).[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual
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Zone 6:replication moves
- payoff table
- kink = option
- convertible = bond + call
- bootstrap spots
- 写 buy/short trade[12]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBring-in(一张你自己的 A4笔记)+一张提供的 formula sheet -- 这既不是闭卷也不是完全开卷。原始公式是给好的,所 以它们写在 A4 上不会给你加分。你的优势在于知道该用哪个模型,并在时间压力下干净利落地执行它。 s. 4 The six-zone A4 layout S. 4六区域 A4 版式 Zone What goes in it Why it earns marks 1. The selector Switch 1 (ratio / schedule / changing) - model; Switch 2 (kits = ku vs ka) picks the right model in seconds 2. The 4 matched pairs FCFU:kg, FCF:ky, FCFE:ke, APV ku+kits stops the No. 1 error (wrong pairing) 3. Recursive template the 4-row drill: Vn = 0 - per-year ks - roll back - Vo the flagship type, done fast 4. Beta & rate cues de-lever peer, re-lever to you, ka = rf + CS; name MRP as the missing input the market-data WACC question 5. Multiples & surplus PE = equity; EBIT/EBITDA = enterprise; add surplus cash, then less debt; strip one-offs both sides stops level/leverage mix-ups 6. Replication moves payoff table by state; convertible = bond + call; bootstrap yt; state the trade the hybrid & arbitrage marks AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ! Things that look like formulas but are really TRAPS - put these on the A4 那些看起来像公式实则是 TRAPS 陷阱的东西 -- 把这些放上 A4 - 用目标杠杆,绝不用账面/当前比率。 · Never the yield as ka for risky debt (it overstates it).[13]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfIf the traded price were instead above $1,001. 05, flip it: short the coupon bond, buy the replicating zeros. The marks are in naming the buy/short legs and the locked-in number - never just "an arbitrage exists". 如果交易价格反而高于$1,001. 05,就反过来:卖空附息债券,买入用于复制的零息债券。分数在于点名买入/卖空的各腿以 及锁定的那个数 -- 绝不要只说“存在一个套利”。 ! Single yield # spot rates ¥- yield # spot rates Pricing a coupon bond at one flat yield when the term structure slopes is the classic error - discount each promised cash flow at its own matching spot rate. And never stop at "arbitrage exists": the question "what should you do?" wants the explicit buy / short trade and the riskless profit. 当 期限结构有斜率 时却按一个统一收益率为附息债券定价,是经典的错误 -- 要按每一笔承诺现金流 各自匹配的即期 利率 来折现。而且绝不要停在“存在套利”上:“你应该怎么做?”这个问题要的是明确的 买入/做空交易 以及 无风险利 润。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 10 回忆清单 -- 第 10类 · Arbitrage = zero cost, no loss, chance of gain; LOOP = same payoff -> same price - price(X) = price(replicating portfolio). I 套利= 零成本、无亏损、有获利机会;LOOP= 相同 payoff →相同价格 → price(X)= price(复制组合)。 I 例行流程:把 payoff 列表 → 找出折点(= option)→识别 strike、到期日 & 谁持有它→组装各腿→ 定价 & 求和。 · Convertible = straight bond + call: CBo = Bo + Co (issuer-callable -+ -Co). Risk-insensitive: bond leg down, call leg up. I Convertible = straight bond + call:(issuer-callable →)。对风险不敏感:bond 腿下降,call 腿上升。 I Bull-spread warrant = long call(低)+ zero - short call(高);需发行数量 = 募资额÷ warrant 价值。 · Bond arbitrage: bootstrap yt from zeros - re-price at spots - if mispriced, state the buy/short trade + the riskless profit. 债券套利:从 zeros bootstrap → 在 spots 重新定价→若定价错误,说明买入/卖空交易+无风险利润。 ● 套利=零成本、无损失、有获利机会;LOOP =相同回报→相同价格→ price(X)= price(复制组合)。 ● 流程:列出回报表 →找出折点(=期权)→确定行权价、到期日 &谁持有它→组装各条腿→定价并求和。 ● 可转债 =直债+看涨期权:CBo = Bo+Co(发行人可赎回→-Co)。对风险不敏感:债券腿下跌,看涨期权腿上 涨。 · 牛市价差认股权证= 多头看涨(低)+零 一空头看涨(高);要发行的数量=筹资额÷认股权证价值。 ● 债券套利:从零息债券 bootstrap 出 yt → 按即期利率重新定价→如果定价错误,说明买入/做空交易+无风险利 润。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR CLASSES 3-4 . THE BRING-IN-A4 CORE The model selector - pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet 模型选择器––在翻公式表之前先选好模型 Two switches decide every DCF question: leverage shape, then ITS risk 两个开关决定每道 DCF 题:杠杆形态,然后是 ITS 风险 TL;DR. The exam hands you the formula sheet, so the marks are not in recalling ks or ky - they are in choosing the right model and pairing the right cash flow with the right rate. Ask two questions, in order. (1) How does leverage behave? A constant target ratio - Standard WACC; a fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with k, = ku); a changing ratio or changing operating risk ku > Recursive Standard WACC. (2) How risky are the interest tax shields? Rebalance-to-ratio -> kits = ku; a fixed schedule ++ kits = kd. Get those two right and the sheet does the arithmetic. TL;DR。考试把公式表交给你,所以分数不在回忆 或 -- 而在选对模型并把对的现金流与对的率配对。按顺序问两个问题。(1) 杠杆如何变化?一个恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;一份固定美元债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(带);一个变动的比率或变 动的经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。(2)利息税盾有多大风险?再平衡到比率→;固定计划表→。把这两个弄对, 公式表会做算术。
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十九、最高频陷阱清单
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这部分你考前一定要看 3 遍。
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陷阱 1:把复习重点放在背公式
- 错。
- 考试已经给公式表。[1]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe 65% final is the whole game, and the formula sheet is printed inside it. Students who revise by memorising formulas waste effort the exam already gives away - and still drop marks because they picked the wrong WACC model for the leverage story, or fumbled the EV-equity bridge. Spend your revision on model selection and clean step templates. Treat the 20% group assignment as exam practice with a longer deadline: building the model is learning the exam. 65% 的期末就是整盘棋,而公式表就印在它里面。靠背公式来复习的学生白费了考试已经送出的力气 -- 而且仍然丢分, 因为他们为那个杠杆故事选错了WACC 模型,或在 EV→股权桥接上失手。把你的复习花在模型选择和干净的步骤模板 上。把那个20% 的小组作业当作一个截止日期更长的考试练习:搭建那个模型本身就是在学考试。 i How this book was built - and the two-layer rule 这本书是如何搭建的 -- 以及双层规则 The standard valuation canon - FCFF/FCFE, the WACC family, CAPM beta levering, terminal values, multiples, no- arbitrage replication - is universal method and is stated openly (a present value is a fact; an identity is an identity), following the standard references (Berk & DeMarzo; Koller-Goedhart-Wessels; Damodaran). The coordinator's own past-exam stems and case figures are paraphrased and re-numbered - every worked example here uses our own invented firm and round numbers. Book status: bring-in one double-sided A4 of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (the FX-8200 is banned), with a course formula sheet provided; it is neither closed-book nor open-book. Always verify weights, dates and exam conditions on your own LMS/Canvas. 标准估值典籍 -- FCFF/FCFE、WACC 家族、CAPM beta 加杠杆、terminal value、倍数、无套利复制 -- 是普适的 方法,且被公开陈述(一个现值是一个事实;一个恒等式就是一个恒等式),遵循标准参考文献(Berk & DeMarzo;Koller- Goedhart-Wessels;Damodaran)。课程协调员自己的历年考试题干与案例数字经过转述与重新编号 -- 这里每一个例 题都用我们自己虚构的公司和整数。书本状态:带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记+一台不可编程的 Casio FX82(FX-8200 被禁),并有一份提供的课程公式表;它既非闭卷也非开卷。永远在你自己的 LMS/Canvas 上核实权重、日期与考试条件。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual THE BLUEPRINT THE EXAM BLUEPRINT FINAL 65% . BRING-IN A4 + PROVIDED SHEET 65% final - bring-in A4, formula sheet provided 65% 期末––可带入 A4,提供公式表 Take-home exam 15% . Group assignment 20% . Final exam 65% Take-home 考试 15% · 小组作业 20% · 期末考试 65% TL;DR. Your mark is three pieces and one dominates: a 65% invigilated final, 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet as short-answer concepts and calculations - no algebraic derivations. It is neither closed nor open: you carry in one double-sided A4 of your own notes and a Casio FX82, and the paper prints the formula sheet for you. So the make-or-break skill is choosing the right model, not recalling a formula. Coordinator: Prof John Handley. TL;DR。你的分数由三部分组成,其中一项占主导:一场65% 的监考期末,180 分钟+15 分钟阅读时间,写在答题册上,形式为简 答概念题与计算题 -- 没有代数推导。它既非闭卷也非开卷:你带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记和一台 Casio FX82,而试卷会替 你印好公式表。所以决定成败的技能是选对模型,而不是回忆公式。课程协调员:Prof John Handley。 65% FINAL EXAM (INVIGILATED) final exam(监考) 180+15m WRITING + READING TIME 笔试 + 阅读时间 1 DOUBLE-SIDED A4 ALLOWED 允许双面 A4 ✓ FORMULA SHEET PROVIDED 提供 formula sheet AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual The three assessment pieces 三项评估组成 Component Weight When / detail Final examination - invigilated, individual, short-answer concepts & calculations 65% Exam period (180m + 15m) Group assignment (groups of 1- 20% Feedback = end of sem[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[5]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf上面每一行底下都坐着一条规则:折现率必须匹配现金流的风险与时间,以及它被定义的基准。配错了,所提供的公式表就会算出 一个毫无意义的数。把这四对操练到成为条件反射。 Cash flow Pairs with rate Because FCFU - unlevered, no ITS ks (Standard WACC) ITS stripped from BOTH sides FCF - all investors, contains ITS ky (Vanilla WACC) ITS lives in the cash flow FCFE - equity residual ke (FCFE model / DDM) equity cash +> equity rate FCFU + ITS separately ku & kits (APV) operations + financing split ✓ Name the type out loud, then commit 大声说出题型,然后下定决心 In the 15-minute reading time, write the type name beside each question ("recursive", "de-lever beta", "convertible" . . . ). That one label triggers the model, the matched pair and the first three steps from this grid - before the clock on the 180 minutes really starts. 在 15 分钟阅读时间里,在每道题旁写上类型名("recursive”、“de-lever beta"、"convertible" . . . )。那一个标签就触发 了模型、配对组合,以及这张网格里的前三步 -- 在180 分钟的钟真正开始走之前。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR - EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM-CONDITIONS: ONE DOUBLE-SIDED A4 + CASIO FX82 Your bring-in A4 - method & decision logic, not formulas 你带入的 A4 -- 方法与决策逻辑,而非公式 Six zones, a 180-minute triage, and the selector you must draw from memory 六个区域、一份180分钟分诊计划,以及你必须凭记忆画出的选择器 TL;DR. You may bring one double-sided A4 of your own notes and a non-programmable Casio FX82 (the FX-8200 is not permitted); the formula sheet is provided inside the exam (you may ignore the imputation formulae). So do not waste the A4 on formulas you will already be given - fill it with decision logic, worked-step templates and traps. Below is a six-zone layout that mirrors the decoder. TL;DR。你可以带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记和一台不可编程的 Casio FX82(FX-8200 不允许);公式表在考试中提供(你可以 忽略 imputation 公式)。所以不要把A4 浪费在你已经会被给到的公式上 -- 用决策逻辑、分步模板和陷阱把它填满。下面是 一个映射解码器的六区域版式。 i Honour the exam conditions exactly 严格遵守考试条件 Bring-in (one A4 of your own notes) + a provided formula sheet - this is neither closed nor fully open book. Raw formulas are supplied, so they earn you nothing on the A4. Your edge is knowing which model to use and executing it cleanly under time pressure.
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陷阱 2:WACC 模型选错
- constant ratio、fixed schedule、changing leverage 三者没分清。[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[9]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 This is the single most valuable page in the bible. The 65% written final (180 min + 15 min reading, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations) is decided question-by-question by this selector. The formula sheet is provided; a non-programmable Casio FX82 and one double-sided A4 of your own notes are your only aids - so your A4 must carry this decision logic, not the formulas. Mis-read the leverage switch and the provided sheet will not save you: you will discount a changing-leverage project at one ks (wrong) or grind a constant-ratio firm recursively (slow, error-prone). 这是整本 bible 里最有价值的一页。这场65% 的笔试 final(180 分钟+15分钟阅读时间,简答概念+计算,不考代数推 导)是靠这张选择器逐题决定的。formula sheet 是提供的;一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 和一张你自己的双面 A4 笔记是 你仅有的辅助 -- 所以你的A4 必须承载这套决策逻辑,而不是那些公式。看错杠杆的开关,提供的公式表也救不了你:你会 用一个(错的)single 去折现一个杠杆在变的项目,或者把一个 constant-ratio 公司递归地硬磨(慢、易错)。 s. 1 Switch 1 - how does leverage behave? S. 1开关 1 -- 杠杆如何变化? Read the stem for the shape of the debt. Three shapes, three models. The whole WACC family is one decision tree: 读题干找债务的形态。三种形态,三个模型。整个 WACC 家族就是一棵决策树: AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG S. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model selector. The root question is the shape of leverage; each branch fixes the model and the matched (cash-flow, rate) pair. The gold strip is the second switch - the risk of the interest tax shields. Memorise this picture; the formula sheet supplies the rest. WACC 模型选择器。根问题是杠杆的形态;每个分支确定模型和配对的(现金流、利率)组合。金色那条带是第二个开关 -- ITS 的风险。把这张图背下来;formula sheet 提供其余部分。[11]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfClass 4 is the engine room of the 65% final (180 min + 15 reading; Casio FX82, your bring-in A4, and the provided formula sheet). Because the sheet gives every formula, you lose marks only by choosing the wrong model. The two switches: (1) how does leverage behave? - constant ratio-Standard, dollar schedule-Vanilla, changing ratio / changing k -Recursive; (2) ITS risk? - rebalance-to-ratio -> knan=k , fixed schedule -> knon=kn. Past papers: equity from a vanilla EV (2022 Q1), back-out the ITS (2023 Q5), and the recursive value (2025/2023/2021 Q1) on page 3. Class 4 是这场 65% 期末考 的引擎室(180分钟+15 分钟阅读;Casio FX82、你可带入的A4纸,以及 提供的公式 表)。因为公式表给出了每一个公式,所以你只会因 选错模型 而丢分。两个开关:(1)杠杆如何表现 ?-- 恒定比率 →Standard,美元排程→Vanilla,变动比率/变动k→递归;(2) ITS 风险 ?-- 再平衡到比率→ Kn on = ka,固定排 程 → Kn on = kn。历年真题:从 vanilla EV 求股权(2022 Q1)、反推 ITS(2023 Q5),以及递归价值 (2025/2023/2021 Q1),见第3页。 4. 1 One picture decides the model 4. 1一张图决定模型 Every enterprise-DCF question in this subject is a fork. Read the financing policy, pick a branch, and the provided formula sheet does the rest. You will meet the right-hand branch in full on page 3. 本门课中每一道企业 DCF 题都是一个分叉。读懂融资政策、选一条分支,所提供的公式表会做完剩下的。你将在第3页完整 遇到右手那条分支。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG 4. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model-selector - the course's hook. Constant target ratio L (debt rebalanced to Dt=L . Vt) - Standard WACC. Fixed dollar debt schedule (L drifts) - Vanilla WACC, and if knon=ka then kn=ka. Changing ratio or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. The gold strip is the second switch: the risk of the interest tax shields . WACC 模型选择器 -- 这门课的钩子。Constant target ratio L(债务 rebalance 到 Dt=L· Vt)→ Standard WACC。 Fixed dollar debt schedule(L 漂移)→ Vanilla WACC,而如果 kn on=ka 则 kh=ka。 Changing ratio 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。金色那条带是第二个开关:ITS的风险。
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陷阱 3:现金流和折现率错配
- 这是头号错误。[5]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf上面每一行底下都坐着一条规则:折现率必须匹配现金流的风险与时间,以及它被定义的基准。配错了,所提供的公式表就会算出 一个毫无意义的数。把这四对操练到成为条件反射。 Cash flow Pairs with rate Because FCFU - unlevered, no ITS ks (Standard WACC) ITS stripped from BOTH sides FCF - all investors, contains ITS ky (Vanilla WACC) ITS lives in the cash flow FCFE - equity residual ke (FCFE model / DDM) equity cash +> equity rate FCFU + ITS separately ku & kits (APV) operations + financing split ✓ Name the type out loud, then commit 大声说出题型,然后下定决心 In the 15-minute reading time, write the type name beside each question ("recursive", "de-lever beta", "convertible" . . . ). That one label triggers the model, the matched pair and the first three steps from this grid - before the clock on the 180 minutes really starts. 在 15 分钟阅读时间里,在每道题旁写上类型名("recursive”、“de-lever beta"、"convertible" . . . )。那一个标签就触发 了模型、配对组合,以及这张网格里的前三步 -- 在180 分钟的钟真正开始走之前。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR - EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM-CONDITIONS: ONE DOUBLE-SIDED A4 + CASIO FX82 Your bring-in A4 - method & decision logic, not formulas 你带入的 A4 -- 方法与决策逻辑,而非公式 Six zones, a 180-minute triage, and the selector you must draw from memory 六个区域、一份180分钟分诊计划,以及你必须凭记忆画出的选择器 TL;DR. You may bring one double-sided A4 of your own notes and a non-programmable Casio FX82 (the FX-8200 is not permitted); the formula sheet is provided inside the exam (you may ignore the imputation formulae). So do not waste the A4 on formulas you will already be given - fill it with decision logic, worked-step templates and traps. Below is a six-zone layout that mirrors the decoder. TL;DR。你可以带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记和一台不可编程的 Casio FX82(FX-8200 不允许);公式表在考试中提供(你可以 忽略 imputation 公式)。所以不要把A4 浪费在你已经会被给到的公式上 -- 用决策逻辑、分步模板和陷阱把它填满。下面是 一个映射解码器的六区域版式。 i Honour the exam conditions exactly 严格遵守考试条件 Bring-in (one A4 of your own notes) + a provided formula sheet - this is neither closed nor fully open book. Raw formulas are supplied, so they earn you nothing on the A4. Your edge is knowing which model to use and executing it cleanly under time pressure.[12]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBring-in(一张你自己的 A4笔记)+一张提供的 formula sheet -- 这既不是闭卷也不是完全开卷。原始公式是给好的,所 以它们写在 A4 上不会给你加分。你的优势在于知道该用哪个模型,并在时间压力下干净利落地执行它。 s. 4 The six-zone A4 layout S. 4六区域 A4 版式 Zone What goes in it Why it earns marks 1. The selector Switch 1 (ratio / schedule / changing) - model; Switch 2 (kits = ku vs ka) picks the right model in seconds 2. The 4 matched pairs FCFU:kg, FCF:ky, FCFE:ke, APV ku+kits stops the No. 1 error (wrong pairing) 3. Recursive template the 4-row drill: Vn = 0 - per-year ks - roll back - Vo the flagship type, done fast 4. Beta & rate cues de-lever peer, re-lever to you, ka = rf + CS; name MRP as the missing input the market-data WACC question 5. Multiples & surplus PE = equity; EBIT/EBITDA = enterprise; add surplus cash, then less debt; strip one-offs both sides stops level/leverage mix-ups 6. Replication moves payoff table by state; convertible = bond + call; bootstrap yt; state the trade the hybrid & arbitrage marks AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ! Things that look like formulas but are really TRAPS - put these on the A4 那些看起来像公式实则是 TRAPS 陷阱的东西 -- 把这些放上 A4 - 用目标杠杆,绝不用账面/当前比率。 · Never the yield as ka for risky debt (it overstates it).
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陷阱 4:算到 EV 就停
- 忘了 bridge 到 equity / per share。[4]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf一本书,三个时刻 LEARN the method - BUILD the model- walk the exam answer shape LEARN 方法 → BUILD 模型 → 走一遍考试答题形态 TL;DR. This is not a transcript of the seminars or a re-run of the workshop spreadsheets. It is a self- contained course in the valuation reasoning FNCE30011 examines - each idea stated plainly, each method shown on a fully-worked example with our own round numbers, each classic trap flagged. Because the exam hands you the formula sheet, these pages drill the thing it cannot give you: read the setup, name the right model, build the cash flows, bridge to equity. TL;DR。这不是研讨课的逐字记录,也不是工作坊电子表格的重跑。它是一门自成体系的课程,讲授 FNCE30011 所考的估值推 理 -- 每个理念都讲得明明白白,每种方法都在一个用我们自己的整数完整算过的例子上展示,每个经典陷阱都被标出。因为考 试会把公式表交给你,这些页面操练的是它无法给你的东西:读懂设置、点出正确的模型、搭建现金流、桥接到股权。 A 1 . LEARN the method 1 · LEARN 方法 You haven't done the topic yet. Read a chapter top to bottom. Every idea opens with a one-line TL;DR, then heading - diagram/formula - explainer - worked example - trap - recap. The diagrams are original schematics of the standard valuation canon - learn the DCF picture and the WACC fork cold. 你还没学过这个主题。把一章从 头读到尾。每个理念都以一行 TL;DR 开头,然后是标题 → 图 示/公式→讲解→ 例题 → 陷 阱→回顾。图示是标准估值典 籍的原创示意图 -- 把 DCF 那 张图和WACC分叉学到烂熟。 B 2 . BUILD the model 2 · BUILD 模型 You've seen the seminar and a workshop. Cover the worked steps and re-build each by hand on a Casio FX82 - forecast the unlevered FCF, choose the WACC model, discount, add the terminal value, run the EV-equity bridge. The 20% group assignment is this book applied to a real firm; the exam is the same engine on fresh numbers. 你看过研讨课和一节工作坊了。 盖住已算的步骤,用 Casio FX82 逐一手工重建 -- 预测无杠杆 FCF、选择 WACC 模型、折 现、加上 terminal value、跑 EV→股权桥接。那个20% 的小 组作业就是把这本书应用到一家 真实公司上;考试则是同一台引擎 在新数字上的运行。 C 3 . APPLY 3 · APPLY 应用 It's revision / SWOT week. The TL;DRs, the trap boxes and the recurring model-selector - DCF + equity pattern are your map. Distil them onto your one A4: a model-selector decision tree, the four cash-flow / discount-rate matching pairs, and your worked- step templates - not a wall of formulas (those are provided). 现在是复习/SWOT周。那些 TL;DR、陷阱框,以及反复出现的 模型选择器→ DCF→ 股权模式 就是你的地图。把它们提炼到你 的那一张 A4 上:一棵模型选择器 决策树、四对现金流 / 折现率匹 配组合,以及你的分步模板 -- 而 不是一墙公式(那些是提供的)。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual i The single engine that runs the whole subject 贯穿整门课的那个单一引擎 Master one calculation and the subject collapses into a pattern. Every task - an enterprise DCF, a WACC build, a multiple, a hybrid by replication - orbits the same engine: estimate the free cash flow to all investors, discount it at the cost of capital, add a terminal value, then bridge enterprise value to equity and divide by shares. Wrapped around it is one front-door question - which WACC model does the leverage story imply? - and one answer shape the markers reward beat by beat. Internalise both and fresh exam numbers cannot surprise you. - 掌握一个计算,这门课就坍缩成一个模式。每一项任务 -- 一个企业 DCF、一次 WACC 搭建、一个倍数、一个用复制法 处理的混合工具 -- 都绕着同一台引擎转:估计流向所有投资者的自由现金流、用资本成本折现它、加上一个 terminal value,然后把企业价值桥接到股权并除以股数。包裹在它外面的是一个前门问题 -- 杠杆故事意味着哪个 WACC 模型? -以及一种打分人会逐拍奖励的答案形态。把两者内化,新的考试数字就吓不到你。 THE SPINE EV = T ∑ t=1 FCFU (1 + ks)* + TVT (1 + ks)T ⟶ Equity = EV - net debt ⟶ Equity shares ! The most important strategic fact about FNCE30011 关于 FNCE30011 最重要的策略性事实[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual
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陷阱 5:surplus asset double-count
- 收益在 FCF 里算过,桥接里又加一次。[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
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陷阱 6:cash 处理不一致
- 一会儿当 surplus,一会儿又 net debt 抵掉。[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
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陷阱 7:yield 直接当 risky debt 的 $k_d$
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陷阱 8:multiple 口径混乱
- equity 和 enterprise 混用。[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制[12]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBring-in(一张你自己的 A4笔记)+一张提供的 formula sheet -- 这既不是闭卷也不是完全开卷。原始公式是给好的,所 以它们写在 A4 上不会给你加分。你的优势在于知道该用哪个模型,并在时间压力下干净利落地执行它。 s. 4 The six-zone A4 layout S. 4六区域 A4 版式 Zone What goes in it Why it earns marks 1. The selector Switch 1 (ratio / schedule / changing) - model; Switch 2 (kits = ku vs ka) picks the right model in seconds 2. The 4 matched pairs FCFU:kg, FCF:ky, FCFE:ke, APV ku+kits stops the No. 1 error (wrong pairing) 3. Recursive template the 4-row drill: Vn = 0 - per-year ks - roll back - Vo the flagship type, done fast 4. Beta & rate cues de-lever peer, re-lever to you, ka = rf + CS; name MRP as the missing input the market-data WACC question 5. Multiples & surplus PE = equity; EBIT/EBITDA = enterprise; add surplus cash, then less debt; strip one-offs both sides stops level/leverage mix-ups 6. Replication moves payoff table by state; convertible = bond + call; bootstrap yt; state the trade the hybrid & arbitrage marks AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ! Things that look like formulas but are really TRAPS - put these on the A4 那些看起来像公式实则是 TRAPS 陷阱的东西 -- 把这些放上 A4 - 用目标杠杆,绝不用账面/当前比率。 · Never the yield as ka for risky debt (it overstates it).
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陷阱 9:coupon bond 用单一 yield 折现
- 应该按 term structure,用 spot rates。[13]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfIf the traded price were instead above $1,001. 05, flip it: short the coupon bond, buy the replicating zeros. The marks are in naming the buy/short legs and the locked-in number - never just "an arbitrage exists". 如果交易价格反而高于$1,001. 05,就反过来:卖空附息债券,买入用于复制的零息债券。分数在于点名买入/卖空的各腿以 及锁定的那个数 -- 绝不要只说“存在一个套利”。 ! Single yield # spot rates ¥- yield # spot rates Pricing a coupon bond at one flat yield when the term structure slopes is the classic error - discount each promised cash flow at its own matching spot rate. And never stop at "arbitrage exists": the question "what should you do?" wants the explicit buy / short trade and the riskless profit. 当 期限结构有斜率 时却按一个统一收益率为附息债券定价,是经典的错误 -- 要按每一笔承诺现金流 各自匹配的即期 利率 来折现。而且绝不要停在“存在套利”上:“你应该怎么做?”这个问题要的是明确的 买入/做空交易 以及 无风险利 润。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 10 回忆清单 -- 第 10类 · Arbitrage = zero cost, no loss, chance of gain; LOOP = same payoff -> same price - price(X) = price(replicating portfolio). I 套利= 零成本、无亏损、有获利机会;LOOP= 相同 payoff →相同价格 → price(X)= price(复制组合)。 I 例行流程:把 payoff 列表 → 找出折点(= option)→识别 strike、到期日 & 谁持有它→组装各腿→ 定价 & 求和。 · Convertible = straight bond + call: CBo = Bo + Co (issuer-callable -+ -Co). Risk-insensitive: bond leg down, call leg up. I Convertible = straight bond + call:(issuer-callable →)。对风险不敏感:bond 腿下降,call 腿上升。 I Bull-spread warrant = long call(低)+ zero - short call(高);需发行数量 = 募资额÷ warrant 价值。 · Bond arbitrage: bootstrap yt from zeros - re-price at spots - if mispriced, state the buy/short trade + the riskless profit. 债券套利:从 zeros bootstrap → 在 spots 重新定价→若定价错误,说明买入/卖空交易+无风险利润。 ● 套利=零成本、无损失、有获利机会;LOOP =相同回报→相同价格→ price(X)= price(复制组合)。 ● 流程:列出回报表 →找出折点(=期权)→确定行权价、到期日 &谁持有它→组装各条腿→定价并求和。 ● 可转债 =直债+看涨期权:CBo = Bo+Co(发行人可赎回→-Co)。对风险不敏感:债券腿下跌,看涨期权腿上 涨。 · 牛市价差认股权证= 多头看涨(低)+零 一空头看涨(高);要发行的数量=筹资额÷认股权证价值。 ● 债券套利:从零息债券 bootstrap 出 yt → 按即期利率重新定价→如果定价错误,说明买入/做空交易+无风险利 润。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR CLASSES 3-4 . THE BRING-IN-A4 CORE The model selector - pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet 模型选择器––在翻公式表之前先选好模型 Two switches decide every DCF question: leverage shape, then ITS risk 两个开关决定每道 DCF 题:杠杆形态,然后是 ITS 风险 TL;DR. The exam hands you the formula sheet, so the marks are not in recalling ks or ky - they are in choosing the right model and pairing the right cash flow with the right rate. Ask two questions, in order. (1) How does leverage behave? A constant target ratio - Standard WACC; a fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with k, = ku); a changing ratio or changing operating risk ku > Recursive Standard WACC. (2) How risky are the interest tax shields? Rebalance-to-ratio -> kits = ku; a fixed schedule ++ kits = kd. Get those two right and the sheet does the arithmetic. TL;DR。考试把公式表交给你,所以分数不在回忆 或 -- 而在选对模型并把对的现金流与对的率配对。按顺序问两个问题。(1) 杠杆如何变化?一个恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;一份固定美元债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(带);一个变动的比率或变 动的经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。(2)利息税盾有多大风险?再平衡到比率→;固定计划表→。把这两个弄对, 公式表会做算术。[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
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陷阱 10:说“存在套利”但不写交易
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二十、考前冲刺怎么复习最有效
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如果你时间很紧,我建议你按这个顺序:
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第 1 优先级:先拿下模型选择器
- 你必须做到看题 10 秒内判断:
- Standard / Vanilla / Recursive / FCFE / DDM / Multiples / Replication[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[9]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 This is the single most valuable page in the bible. The 65% written final (180 min + 15 min reading, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations) is decided question-by-question by this selector. The formula sheet is provided; a non-programmable Casio FX82 and one double-sided A4 of your own notes are your only aids - so your A4 must carry this decision logic, not the formulas. Mis-read the leverage switch and the provided sheet will not save you: you will discount a changing-leverage project at one ks (wrong) or grind a constant-ratio firm recursively (slow, error-prone). 这是整本 bible 里最有价值的一页。这场65% 的笔试 final(180 分钟+15分钟阅读时间,简答概念+计算,不考代数推 导)是靠这张选择器逐题决定的。formula sheet 是提供的;一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 和一张你自己的双面 A4 笔记是 你仅有的辅助 -- 所以你的A4 必须承载这套决策逻辑,而不是那些公式。看错杠杆的开关,提供的公式表也救不了你:你会 用一个(错的)single 去折现一个杠杆在变的项目,或者把一个 constant-ratio 公司递归地硬磨(慢、易错)。 s. 1 Switch 1 - how does leverage behave? S. 1开关 1 -- 杠杆如何变化? Read the stem for the shape of the debt. Three shapes, three models. The whole WACC family is one decision tree: 读题干找债务的形态。三种形态,三个模型。整个 WACC 家族就是一棵决策树: AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG S. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model selector. The root question is the shape of leverage; each branch fixes the model and the matched (cash-flow, rate) pair. The gold strip is the second switch - the risk of the interest tax shields. Memorise this picture; the formula sheet supplies the rest. WACC 模型选择器。根问题是杠杆的形态;每个分支确定模型和配对的(现金流、利率)组合。金色那条带是第二个开关 -- ITS 的风险。把这张图背下来;formula sheet 提供其余部分。
- 你必须做到看题 10 秒内判断:
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第 2 优先级:背熟 4 个现金流-折现率配对
- 这一步最值钱[5]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf上面每一行底下都坐着一条规则:折现率必须匹配现金流的风险与时间,以及它被定义的基准。配错了,所提供的公式表就会算出 一个毫无意义的数。把这四对操练到成为条件反射。 Cash flow Pairs with rate Because FCFU - unlevered, no ITS ks (Standard WACC) ITS stripped from BOTH sides FCF - all investors, contains ITS ky (Vanilla WACC) ITS lives in the cash flow FCFE - equity residual ke (FCFE model / DDM) equity cash +> equity rate FCFU + ITS separately ku & kits (APV) operations + financing split ✓ Name the type out loud, then commit 大声说出题型,然后下定决心 In the 15-minute reading time, write the type name beside each question ("recursive", "de-lever beta", "convertible" . . . ). That one label triggers the model, the matched pair and the first three steps from this grid - before the clock on the 180 minutes really starts. 在 15 分钟阅读时间里,在每道题旁写上类型名("recursive”、“de-lever beta"、"convertible" . . . )。那一个标签就触发 了模型、配对组合,以及这张网格里的前三步 -- 在180 分钟的钟真正开始走之前。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR - EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM-CONDITIONS: ONE DOUBLE-SIDED A4 + CASIO FX82 Your bring-in A4 - method & decision logic, not formulas 你带入的 A4 -- 方法与决策逻辑,而非公式 Six zones, a 180-minute triage, and the selector you must draw from memory 六个区域、一份180分钟分诊计划,以及你必须凭记忆画出的选择器 TL;DR. You may bring one double-sided A4 of your own notes and a non-programmable Casio FX82 (the FX-8200 is not permitted); the formula sheet is provided inside the exam (you may ignore the imputation formulae). So do not waste the A4 on formulas you will already be given - fill it with decision logic, worked-step templates and traps. Below is a six-zone layout that mirrors the decoder. TL;DR。你可以带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记和一台不可编程的 Casio FX82(FX-8200 不允许);公式表在考试中提供(你可以 忽略 imputation 公式)。所以不要把A4 浪费在你已经会被给到的公式上 -- 用决策逻辑、分步模板和陷阱把它填满。下面是 一个映射解码器的六区域版式。 i Honour the exam conditions exactly 严格遵守考试条件 Bring-in (one A4 of your own notes) + a provided formula sheet - this is neither closed nor fully open book. Raw formulas are supplied, so they earn you nothing on the A4. Your edge is knowing which model to use and executing it cleanly under time pressure.[12]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBring-in(一张你自己的 A4笔记)+一张提供的 formula sheet -- 这既不是闭卷也不是完全开卷。原始公式是给好的,所 以它们写在 A4 上不会给你加分。你的优势在于知道该用哪个模型,并在时间压力下干净利落地执行它。 s. 4 The six-zone A4 layout S. 4六区域 A4 版式 Zone What goes in it Why it earns marks 1. The selector Switch 1 (ratio / schedule / changing) - model; Switch 2 (kits = ku vs ka) picks the right model in seconds 2. The 4 matched pairs FCFU:kg, FCF:ky, FCFE:ke, APV ku+kits stops the No. 1 error (wrong pairing) 3. Recursive template the 4-row drill: Vn = 0 - per-year ks - roll back - Vo the flagship type, done fast 4. Beta & rate cues de-lever peer, re-lever to you, ka = rf + CS; name MRP as the missing input the market-data WACC question 5. Multiples & surplus PE = equity; EBIT/EBITDA = enterprise; add surplus cash, then less debt; strip one-offs both sides stops level/leverage mix-ups 6. Replication moves payoff table by state; convertible = bond + call; bootstrap yt; state the trade the hybrid & arbitrage marks AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ! Things that look like formulas but are really TRAPS - put these on the A4 那些看起来像公式实则是 TRAPS 陷阱的东西 -- 把这些放上 A4 - 用目标杠杆,绝不用账面/当前比率。 · Never the yield as ka for risky debt (it overstates it).
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第 3 优先级:练 EV→Equity bridge
- 每道 enterprise valuation 都收尾到每股价值[4]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf一本书,三个时刻 LEARN the method - BUILD the model- walk the exam answer shape LEARN 方法 → BUILD 模型 → 走一遍考试答题形态 TL;DR. This is not a transcript of the seminars or a re-run of the workshop spreadsheets. It is a self- contained course in the valuation reasoning FNCE30011 examines - each idea stated plainly, each method shown on a fully-worked example with our own round numbers, each classic trap flagged. Because the exam hands you the formula sheet, these pages drill the thing it cannot give you: read the setup, name the right model, build the cash flows, bridge to equity. TL;DR。这不是研讨课的逐字记录,也不是工作坊电子表格的重跑。它是一门自成体系的课程,讲授 FNCE30011 所考的估值推 理 -- 每个理念都讲得明明白白,每种方法都在一个用我们自己的整数完整算过的例子上展示,每个经典陷阱都被标出。因为考 试会把公式表交给你,这些页面操练的是它无法给你的东西:读懂设置、点出正确的模型、搭建现金流、桥接到股权。 A 1 . LEARN the method 1 · LEARN 方法 You haven't done the topic yet. Read a chapter top to bottom. Every idea opens with a one-line TL;DR, then heading - diagram/formula - explainer - worked example - trap - recap. The diagrams are original schematics of the standard valuation canon - learn the DCF picture and the WACC fork cold. 你还没学过这个主题。把一章从 头读到尾。每个理念都以一行 TL;DR 开头,然后是标题 → 图 示/公式→讲解→ 例题 → 陷 阱→回顾。图示是标准估值典 籍的原创示意图 -- 把 DCF 那 张图和WACC分叉学到烂熟。 B 2 . BUILD the model 2 · BUILD 模型 You've seen the seminar and a workshop. Cover the worked steps and re-build each by hand on a Casio FX82 - forecast the unlevered FCF, choose the WACC model, discount, add the terminal value, run the EV-equity bridge. The 20% group assignment is this book applied to a real firm; the exam is the same engine on fresh numbers. 你看过研讨课和一节工作坊了。 盖住已算的步骤,用 Casio FX82 逐一手工重建 -- 预测无杠杆 FCF、选择 WACC 模型、折 现、加上 terminal value、跑 EV→股权桥接。那个20% 的小 组作业就是把这本书应用到一家 真实公司上;考试则是同一台引擎 在新数字上的运行。 C 3 . APPLY 3 · APPLY 应用 It's revision / SWOT week. The TL;DRs, the trap boxes and the recurring model-selector - DCF + equity pattern are your map. Distil them onto your one A4: a model-selector decision tree, the four cash-flow / discount-rate matching pairs, and your worked- step templates - not a wall of formulas (those are provided). 现在是复习/SWOT周。那些 TL;DR、陷阱框,以及反复出现的 模型选择器→ DCF→ 股权模式 就是你的地图。把它们提炼到你 的那一张 A4 上:一棵模型选择器 决策树、四对现金流 / 折现率匹 配组合,以及你的分步模板 -- 而 不是一墙公式(那些是提供的)。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual i The single engine that runs the whole subject 贯穿整门课的那个单一引擎 Master one calculation and the subject collapses into a pattern. Every task - an enterprise DCF, a WACC build, a multiple, a hybrid by replication - orbits the same engine: estimate the free cash flow to all investors, discount it at the cost of capital, add a terminal value, then bridge enterprise value to equity and divide by shares. Wrapped around it is one front-door question - which WACC model does the leverage story imply? - and one answer shape the markers reward beat by beat. Internalise both and fresh exam numbers cannot surprise you. - 掌握一个计算,这门课就坍缩成一个模式。每一项任务 -- 一个企业 DCF、一次 WACC 搭建、一个倍数、一个用复制法 处理的混合工具 -- 都绕着同一台引擎转:估计流向所有投资者的自由现金流、用资本成本折现它、加上一个 terminal value,然后把企业价值桥接到股权并除以股数。包裹在它外面的是一个前门问题 -- 杠杆故事意味着哪个 WACC 模型? -以及一种打分人会逐拍奖励的答案形态。把两者内化,新的考试数字就吓不到你。 THE SPINE EV = T ∑ t=1 FCFU (1 + ks)* + TVT (1 + ks)T ⟶ Equity = EV - net debt ⟶ Equity shares ! The most important strategic fact about FNCE30011 关于 FNCE30011 最重要的策略性事实[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual
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第 4 优先级:练 4 类高频大题
- 企业 DCF
- 股权 DCF(FCFE / DDM)
- Multiples
- Replication / arbitrage[8]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfWalk in ready 10 The model selector the master decision tree . the 4 matching pairs . which method, when → 11 Glossary & formula map every term, one line each · bilingual . what each provided formula is for → 12 Practice bank & solutions the recurring exam templates (2020-2025 DNA) on our own firms → AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual i Why this order - and what is in / out of scope 为什么是这个顺序 -- 以及范围之内/之外是什么 The subject builds strictly. Part I sets the engine - equity DCF, then the enterprise DCF and the three WACC models that are the course's signature. Part II feeds the engine - estimate the discount rates (CAPM, beta levering, credit spreads) and handle the messy real-world items. Part III cross-checks and replaces the DCF where needed - multiples, where value comes from, and no-arbitrage valuation of hybrids. Examined scope = Classes 2-10. The Class 1 framework (takeovers, the 20% rule, Independent Expert Reports), Workshop 6 Part B (the integrated model) and Class 11 (imputation - you may ignore the imputation formulae on the provided sheet) are non-examinable and appear here only as context. 这门课严格地层层搭建。第一部分搭起引擎 -- 先是股权 DCF,然后是企业 DCF 以及作为本课招牌的三个 WACC 模 型。第二部分给引擎供料 -- 估计折现率(CAPM、beta 加杠杆、credit spread)并处理那些杂乱的现实世界项目。第三 部分交叉验证并在必要处替换 DCF -- 倍数、价值从何而来,以及混合工具的无套利估值。可考范围=第 2-10 课。第1 课框架(收购、20% 规则、独立专家报告)、Workshop 6 Part B(整合模型)与第 11课(imputation -- 你可以忽略所提供 公式表上的 imputation 公式)不可考,在此仅作为背景出现。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 2 . EQUITY DCF - CLASS 2 . EQUITY DCF W2 . THE BUILDING BLOCK Equity valuation by DCF & the four cash-flow measures 用 DCF 做股权估值与四种现金流口径 FCF, unlevered FCF and FCFE - one cascade, three answers FCF、无杠杆 FCF 与 FCFE -- 一条级联,三个答案 TL;DR. A DCF says value today = the present value of expected future cash flows discounted at a rate that reflects their risk. The trick of the whole course is choosing which cash flow and pairing it with the matching discount rate. Class 2 sets up the three cash-flow measures - FCF, unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCFE - and the equity models (FCFE model & DDM) you build on them. TL;DR。一个 DCF 说的是:今天的价值=预期未来现金流以反映其风险的折现率折现后的现值。整门课的诀窍在于选择哪一 种现金流,并把它与匹配的折现率配对。第2课搭起三种现金流口径 -- FCF、无杠杆 FCF()与 FCFE -- 以及建立在它们之 上的股权模型(FCFE 模型与 DDM)。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 2 is the foundation of the 65% bring-in-A4 final (3h + 15m, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations). The formula sheet is provided - so marks are won on which cash-flow measure to use and what discount rate it pairs with, never on recalling a formula. The examinable hooks: define and reconcile FCF vs FCFU vs FCFE, build FCF from a statement, value equity by the FCFE model and the DDM, and reconcile the two (next page). Put the cash-flow cascade and the four matched (cash-flow, rate) pairs on your A4. 第2 课是这场 65% 带入-A4 期末(3小时+15分钟,简答概念题+计算题,没有代数推导)的基础。公式表是提供的 - 所以分数赢在用哪种现金流口径以及它配什么折现率,绝不在回忆一个公式。可考的挂钩:界定并对账 FCF vs FCFU vs FCFE、从一张报表搭出 FCF、用 FCFE 模型和 DDM 给股权估值,并对账两者(下一页)。把现金流级联和那四对匹配的 (现金流,率)组合放上你的A4。 2. 1 The DCF idea & its three pillars 2. 1DCF 的理念及其三大支柱 Value is forward-looking and additive: 价值是前瞻的且可加的: Vo => T (1 + r){ Ct t=1 Three pillars justify the discounting. Time value of money - a safe dollar now beats a safe dollar later. Risk aversion - a safe dollar later beats a risky one, so a risk premium is added to r. Value additivity - the PV of a sum equals the sum of the PVs, which lets us value each surplus asset, claim and cash stream separately then add them.[10]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfTL;DR. The book follows the subject's arc - the DCF engine (Classes 2-4), the discount rates and refinements that feed it (Classes 5-6), then the cross-checks and replication that defend the answer (Classes 7-10) - before turning it into marks with the model selector, glossary and a practice bank built on the real 2020-2025 exam DNA. TL;DR。本书循着这门课的弧线推进 -- DCF 引擎(第2-4课)、为它供料的折现率与各种细化(第 5-6课),然后是捍卫答案 的交叉验证与复制(第7-10课) -- 再以模型选择器、术语表,以及一个建立在真实 2020-2025 考试 DNA 之上的练习库,把 这一切转化为分数。 Ch Topic Core ideas Part I . The DCF engine (Classes 2-4) 1 Equity valuation using DCF FCF & FCFE . the FCFE model . DDM / Gordon . FCFE-DDM reconciliation . FCF from the statements → 2 Enterprise DCF: the Standard WACC one-period model . kg = (1 - L)ke + Lka(1 -T) · constant target leverage (Miles- → Ezzell) · APV = U0 + I0 · ku 3 Enterprise DCF: the Vanilla & Recursive WACC ky = (1 - L)ke + Lka · target debt schedule . ky = ku when kits = ku · recursive standard WACC by backward induction → Part II . Rates & refinements (Classes 5-6) 4 Estimating discount rates CAPM · Fama-French · levering / de-levering beta (Bu = (1 - L)Be + LBa) . credit → spread (y = rf +CS) 5 Miscellaneous DCF issues surplus (non-operating) assets . cash as net debt . consolidated FCF . one-offs . → leases . terminal values . changing operating risk Part III . Cross-checks & replication (Classes 7-10) 6 Valuation using PE multiples what a multiple is . PE in the FCFE frame (no-growth vs growth) . maintainable earnings . choosing comparators . control premium → 7 Valuation using other multiples EBIT, EBITDA, EBITDA-CAPEX multiples . equity vs enterprise multiples . how leverage & capex distort each . like-with-like → 8 Where value comes from & dilution competitive advantage · growth options . share-issue pricing . two-price dilution cases → 9 Valuation by replication arbitrage & the Law of One Price . replicating portfolios . convertibles = bond + call . warrants . bootstrapping spot rates →[13]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfIf the traded price were instead above $1,001. 05, flip it: short the coupon bond, buy the replicating zeros. The marks are in naming the buy/short legs and the locked-in number - never just "an arbitrage exists". 如果交易价格反而高于$1,001. 05,就反过来:卖空附息债券,买入用于复制的零息债券。分数在于点名买入/卖空的各腿以 及锁定的那个数 -- 绝不要只说“存在一个套利”。 ! Single yield # spot rates ¥- yield # spot rates Pricing a coupon bond at one flat yield when the term structure slopes is the classic error - discount each promised cash flow at its own matching spot rate. And never stop at "arbitrage exists": the question "what should you do?" wants the explicit buy / short trade and the riskless profit. 当 期限结构有斜率 时却按一个统一收益率为附息债券定价,是经典的错误 -- 要按每一笔承诺现金流 各自匹配的即期 利率 来折现。而且绝不要停在“存在套利”上:“你应该怎么做?”这个问题要的是明确的 买入/做空交易 以及 无风险利 润。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 10 回忆清单 -- 第 10类 · Arbitrage = zero cost, no loss, chance of gain; LOOP = same payoff -> same price - price(X) = price(replicating portfolio). I 套利= 零成本、无亏损、有获利机会;LOOP= 相同 payoff →相同价格 → price(X)= price(复制组合)。 I 例行流程:把 payoff 列表 → 找出折点(= option)→识别 strike、到期日 & 谁持有它→组装各腿→ 定价 & 求和。 · Convertible = straight bond + call: CBo = Bo + Co (issuer-callable -+ -Co). Risk-insensitive: bond leg down, call leg up. I Convertible = straight bond + call:(issuer-callable →)。对风险不敏感:bond 腿下降,call 腿上升。 I Bull-spread warrant = long call(低)+ zero - short call(高);需发行数量 = 募资额÷ warrant 价值。 · Bond arbitrage: bootstrap yt from zeros - re-price at spots - if mispriced, state the buy/short trade + the riskless profit. 债券套利:从 zeros bootstrap → 在 spots 重新定价→若定价错误,说明买入/卖空交易+无风险利润。 ● 套利=零成本、无损失、有获利机会;LOOP =相同回报→相同价格→ price(X)= price(复制组合)。 ● 流程:列出回报表 →找出折点(=期权)→确定行权价、到期日 &谁持有它→组装各条腿→定价并求和。 ● 可转债 =直债+看涨期权:CBo = Bo+Co(发行人可赎回→-Co)。对风险不敏感:债券腿下跌,看涨期权腿上 涨。 · 牛市价差认股权证= 多头看涨(低)+零 一空头看涨(高);要发行的数量=筹资额÷认股权证价值。 ● 债券套利:从零息债券 bootstrap 出 yt → 按即期利率重新定价→如果定价错误,说明买入/做空交易+无风险利 润。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR CLASSES 3-4 . THE BRING-IN-A4 CORE The model selector - pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet 模型选择器––在翻公式表之前先选好模型 Two switches decide every DCF question: leverage shape, then ITS risk 两个开关决定每道 DCF 题:杠杆形态,然后是 ITS 风险 TL;DR. The exam hands you the formula sheet, so the marks are not in recalling ks or ky - they are in choosing the right model and pairing the right cash flow with the right rate. Ask two questions, in order. (1) How does leverage behave? A constant target ratio - Standard WACC; a fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with k, = ku); a changing ratio or changing operating risk ku > Recursive Standard WACC. (2) How risky are the interest tax shields? Rebalance-to-ratio -> kits = ku; a fixed schedule ++ kits = kd. Get those two right and the sheet does the arithmetic. TL;DR。考试把公式表交给你,所以分数不在回忆 或 -- 而在选对模型并把对的现金流与对的率配对。按顺序问两个问题。(1) 杠杆如何变化?一个恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;一份固定美元债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(带);一个变动的比率或变 动的经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。(2)利息税盾有多大风险?再平衡到比率→;固定计划表→。把这两个弄对, 公式表会做算术。
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第 5 优先级:背陷阱
- 特别是:
- model selection
- pairing
- bridge
- surplus/cash
- yield vs $k_d$
- spot vs single yield[12]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBring-in(一张你自己的 A4笔记)+一张提供的 formula sheet -- 这既不是闭卷也不是完全开卷。原始公式是给好的,所 以它们写在 A4 上不会给你加分。你的优势在于知道该用哪个模型,并在时间压力下干净利落地执行它。 s. 4 The six-zone A4 layout S. 4六区域 A4 版式 Zone What goes in it Why it earns marks 1. The selector Switch 1 (ratio / schedule / changing) - model; Switch 2 (kits = ku vs ka) picks the right model in seconds 2. The 4 matched pairs FCFU:kg, FCF:ky, FCFE:ke, APV ku+kits stops the No. 1 error (wrong pairing) 3. Recursive template the 4-row drill: Vn = 0 - per-year ks - roll back - Vo the flagship type, done fast 4. Beta & rate cues de-lever peer, re-lever to you, ka = rf + CS; name MRP as the missing input the market-data WACC question 5. Multiples & surplus PE = equity; EBIT/EBITDA = enterprise; add surplus cash, then less debt; strip one-offs both sides stops level/leverage mix-ups 6. Replication moves payoff table by state; convertible = bond + call; bootstrap yt; state the trade the hybrid & arbitrage marks AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ! Things that look like formulas but are really TRAPS - put these on the A4 那些看起来像公式实则是 TRAPS 陷阱的东西 -- 把这些放上 A4 - 用目标杠杆,绝不用账面/当前比率。 · Never the yield as ka for risky debt (it overstates it).[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
- 特别是:
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二十一、如果你现在只记 10 句话,就记这 10 句
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1. 这门课考的是模型选择,不是公式默写。[1]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe 65% final is the whole game, and the formula sheet is printed inside it. Students who revise by memorising formulas waste effort the exam already gives away - and still drop marks because they picked the wrong WACC model for the leverage story, or fumbled the EV-equity bridge. Spend your revision on model selection and clean step templates. Treat the 20% group assignment as exam practice with a longer deadline: building the model is learning the exam. 65% 的期末就是整盘棋,而公式表就印在它里面。靠背公式来复习的学生白费了考试已经送出的力气 -- 而且仍然丢分, 因为他们为那个杠杆故事选错了WACC 模型,或在 EV→股权桥接上失手。把你的复习花在模型选择和干净的步骤模板 上。把那个20% 的小组作业当作一个截止日期更长的考试练习:搭建那个模型本身就是在学考试。 i How this book was built - and the two-layer rule 这本书是如何搭建的 -- 以及双层规则 The standard valuation canon - FCFF/FCFE, the WACC family, CAPM beta levering, terminal values, multiples, no- arbitrage replication - is universal method and is stated openly (a present value is a fact; an identity is an identity), following the standard references (Berk & DeMarzo; Koller-Goedhart-Wessels; Damodaran). The coordinator's own past-exam stems and case figures are paraphrased and re-numbered - every worked example here uses our own invented firm and round numbers. Book status: bring-in one double-sided A4 of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (the FX-8200 is banned), with a course formula sheet provided; it is neither closed-book nor open-book. Always verify weights, dates and exam conditions on your own LMS/Canvas. 标准估值典籍 -- FCFF/FCFE、WACC 家族、CAPM beta 加杠杆、terminal value、倍数、无套利复制 -- 是普适的 方法,且被公开陈述(一个现值是一个事实;一个恒等式就是一个恒等式),遵循标准参考文献(Berk & DeMarzo;Koller- Goedhart-Wessels;Damodaran)。课程协调员自己的历年考试题干与案例数字经过转述与重新编号 -- 这里每一个例 题都用我们自己虚构的公司和整数。书本状态:带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记+一台不可编程的 Casio FX82(FX-8200 被禁),并有一份提供的课程公式表;它既非闭卷也非开卷。永远在你自己的 LMS/Canvas 上核实权重、日期与考试条件。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual THE BLUEPRINT THE EXAM BLUEPRINT FINAL 65% . BRING-IN A4 + PROVIDED SHEET 65% final - bring-in A4, formula sheet provided 65% 期末––可带入 A4,提供公式表 Take-home exam 15% . Group assignment 20% . Final exam 65% Take-home 考试 15% · 小组作业 20% · 期末考试 65% TL;DR. Your mark is three pieces and one dominates: a 65% invigilated final, 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet as short-answer concepts and calculations - no algebraic derivations. It is neither closed nor open: you carry in one double-sided A4 of your own notes and a Casio FX82, and the paper prints the formula sheet for you. So the make-or-break skill is choosing the right model, not recalling a formula. Coordinator: Prof John Handley. TL;DR。你的分数由三部分组成,其中一项占主导:一场65% 的监考期末,180 分钟+15 分钟阅读时间,写在答题册上,形式为简 答概念题与计算题 -- 没有代数推导。它既非闭卷也非开卷:你带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记和一台 Casio FX82,而试卷会替 你印好公式表。所以决定成败的技能是选对模型,而不是回忆公式。课程协调员:Prof John Handley。 65% FINAL EXAM (INVIGILATED) final exam(监考) 180+15m WRITING + READING TIME 笔试 + 阅读时间 1 DOUBLE-SIDED A4 ALLOWED 允许双面 A4 ✓ FORMULA SHEET PROVIDED 提供 formula sheet AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual The three assessment pieces 三项评估组成 Component Weight When / detail Final examination - invigilated, individual, short-answer concepts & calculations 65% Exam period (180m + 15m) Group assignment (groups of 1- 20% Feedback = end of sem[14]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf3; build/apply a valuation) Individual take-home exam (online, individual) 15% Mid-semester ★ The exam format - model selection, NOT formula recall 考试形式 -- 模型选择,而非公式默写 One invigilated written paper, and the formula sheet is printed inside it. You will not earn marks for reproducing ks or the CAPM - they are given. You will be handed a firm sketch, forecasts, leverage information and cost-of-capital inputs and asked to name the right model, build the cash flows, discount, and bridge to a per-share value - plus short concept items (why enterprise DCF; Standard vs Vanilla vs Recursive WACC; the interest-tax-shield risk switch; why a multiple must be like-with-like). Questions are short-answer with no algebraic derivations. Walk a full valuation on a fresh firm and you have walked the exam. 一场监考的书面试卷,而公式表就印在它里面。你不会 因复述 或 CAPM 而得分 -- 它们是给定的。你会拿到 一份公司速写、各种预测、杠杆信息和资本成本输入, 并被要求点出正确的模型、搭建现金流、折现,并桥接 到一个每股价值- -外加一些简短的概念项(为什么用 TEIL DCF;Standard vs Vanilla vs Recursive WACC; 利息税盾风险开关;为什么一个倍数必须同类与同类)。 题目是简答型,没有代数推导。在一家新公司上走完一 次完整估值,你就走完了考试。 FIG 0. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ Changing L or operating risk k_u D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_tor k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T] k_w = (1-L]k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF"U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s,t) Mies-Ezzel K_V= K_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its . k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its . k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula
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2. 每题先看杠杆怎么变化。[2]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf用我们自己的数字写成的忠于考试的卡片 · 决策开关先行 TL;DR. The 65% final hands you a formula sheet and lets you bring one double-sided A4 plus a non- programmable Casio FX82 - so no mark is ever lost on recalling a formula. Marks are won by reading the stem, flipping the right decision switch (which discount-rate model? whose risk is the tax shield?), and executing the matching cash-flow / discount-rate pair. Every card below is one rehearsal of that habit. TL;DR。这场 65% 的期末把公式表交给你,并让你带入一张双面 A4 加一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 -- 所以从不会因回忆一 个公式而丢分。分数赢在读懂题干、拨对那个决策开关(哪个折现率模型?税盾是谁的风险?),并执行那对匹配的现金流 / 折现 率组合。下面每一张卡片都是对那个习惯的一次排练。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 The final is short-answer concepts + calculations, NO algebraic derivations - 180 min + 15 min reading, written in the booklet. Because the formula sheet is provided, your bring-in A4 should carry this page's decision tree + the worked-step templates + the traps, not raw formulas. Drill until you can name the model in one line before you touch the calculator. (Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B are out of scope. ) 这场 final 是简答概念+计算,不考代数推导 -- 180 分钟+15 分钟阅读,写在答题册里。因为 formula sheet 是提供的, 你的 bring-in A4 应承载这一页的决策树 +演算步骤模板+那些陷阱,而不是原始公式。反复训练,直到你能在碰计算器 之前一句话点出模型名。(Imputation / Class 1 framework / Workshop 6 Part B 不在考查范围内。) AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG P. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The course's hook in one picture. First switch - how does leverage behave? constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. Second switch - is the interest tax shield as risky as operations (kits=ku) or as the debt (kits=kg)? 这门课的钩子,一图概括。第一个开关 -- 杠杆怎么表现?constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed dollar debt schedule → Vanilla WACC;changing leverage 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关––ITS 是 和经营一样有风险(kits=ku)还是和债务一样(kits=kd)?[9]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 This is the single most valuable page in the bible. The 65% written final (180 min + 15 min reading, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations) is decided question-by-question by this selector. The formula sheet is provided; a non-programmable Casio FX82 and one double-sided A4 of your own notes are your only aids - so your A4 must carry this decision logic, not the formulas. Mis-read the leverage switch and the provided sheet will not save you: you will discount a changing-leverage project at one ks (wrong) or grind a constant-ratio firm recursively (slow, error-prone). 这是整本 bible 里最有价值的一页。这场65% 的笔试 final(180 分钟+15分钟阅读时间,简答概念+计算,不考代数推 导)是靠这张选择器逐题决定的。formula sheet 是提供的;一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 和一张你自己的双面 A4 笔记是 你仅有的辅助 -- 所以你的A4 必须承载这套决策逻辑,而不是那些公式。看错杠杆的开关,提供的公式表也救不了你:你会 用一个(错的)single 去折现一个杠杆在变的项目,或者把一个 constant-ratio 公司递归地硬磨(慢、易错)。 s. 1 Switch 1 - how does leverage behave? S. 1开关 1 -- 杠杆如何变化? Read the stem for the shape of the debt. Three shapes, three models. The whole WACC family is one decision tree: 读题干找债务的形态。三种形态,三个模型。整个 WACC 家族就是一棵决策树: AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG S. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model selector. The root question is the shape of leverage; each branch fixes the model and the matched (cash-flow, rate) pair. The gold strip is the second switch - the risk of the interest tax shields. Memorise this picture; the formula sheet supplies the rest. WACC 模型选择器。根问题是杠杆的形态;每个分支确定模型和配对的(现金流、利率)组合。金色那条带是第二个开关 -- ITS 的风险。把这张图背下来;formula sheet 提供其余部分。
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5. changing leverage / changing $k_u$ → Recursive Standard WACC。[9]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 This is the single most valuable page in the bible. The 65% written final (180 min + 15 min reading, short-answer concepts + calculations, no algebraic derivations) is decided question-by-question by this selector. The formula sheet is provided; a non-programmable Casio FX82 and one double-sided A4 of your own notes are your only aids - so your A4 must carry this decision logic, not the formulas. Mis-read the leverage switch and the provided sheet will not save you: you will discount a changing-leverage project at one ks (wrong) or grind a constant-ratio firm recursively (slow, error-prone). 这是整本 bible 里最有价值的一页。这场65% 的笔试 final(180 分钟+15分钟阅读时间,简答概念+计算,不考代数推 导)是靠这张选择器逐题决定的。formula sheet 是提供的;一台不可编程的 Casio FX82 和一张你自己的双面 A4 笔记是 你仅有的辅助 -- 所以你的A4 必须承载这套决策逻辑,而不是那些公式。看错杠杆的开关,提供的公式表也救不了你:你会 用一个(错的)single 去折现一个杠杆在变的项目,或者把一个 constant-ratio 公司递归地硬磨(慢、易错)。 s. 1 Switch 1 - how does leverage behave? S. 1开关 1 -- 杠杆如何变化? Read the stem for the shape of the debt. Three shapes, three models. The whole WACC family is one decision tree: 读题干找债务的形态。三种形态,三个模型。整个 WACC 家族就是一棵决策树: AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG S. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model selector. The root question is the shape of leverage; each branch fixes the model and the matched (cash-flow, rate) pair. The gold strip is the second switch - the risk of the interest tax shields. Memorise this picture; the formula sheet supplies the rest. WACC 模型选择器。根问题是杠杆的形态;每个分支确定模型和配对的(现金流、利率)组合。金色那条带是第二个开关 -- ITS 的风险。把这张图背下来;formula sheet 提供其余部分。[11]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfClass 4 is the engine room of the 65% final (180 min + 15 reading; Casio FX82, your bring-in A4, and the provided formula sheet). Because the sheet gives every formula, you lose marks only by choosing the wrong model. The two switches: (1) how does leverage behave? - constant ratio-Standard, dollar schedule-Vanilla, changing ratio / changing k -Recursive; (2) ITS risk? - rebalance-to-ratio -> knan=k , fixed schedule -> knon=kn. Past papers: equity from a vanilla EV (2022 Q1), back-out the ITS (2023 Q5), and the recursive value (2025/2023/2021 Q1) on page 3. Class 4 是这场 65% 期末考 的引擎室(180分钟+15 分钟阅读;Casio FX82、你可带入的A4纸,以及 提供的公式 表)。因为公式表给出了每一个公式,所以你只会因 选错模型 而丢分。两个开关:(1)杠杆如何表现 ?-- 恒定比率 →Standard,美元排程→Vanilla,变动比率/变动k→递归;(2) ITS 风险 ?-- 再平衡到比率→ Kn on = ka,固定排 程 → Kn on = kn。历年真题:从 vanilla EV 求股权(2022 Q1)、反推 ITS(2023 Q5),以及递归价值 (2025/2023/2021 Q1),见第3页。 4. 1 One picture decides the model 4. 1一张图决定模型 Every enterprise-DCF question in this subject is a fork. Read the financing policy, pick a branch, and the provided formula sheet does the rest. You will meet the right-hand branch in full on page 3. 本门课中每一道企业 DCF 题都是一个分叉。读懂融资政策、选一条分支,所提供的公式表会做完剩下的。你将在第3页完整 遇到右手那条分支。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual FIG 4. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ fixed) Changing L or operating risk k_u - D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_t or k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T) k_v = (1-L) k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF^U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s, t) Miles-Ezzell k_v= k_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its = k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its = k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula The WACC model-selector - the course's hook. Constant target ratio L (debt rebalanced to Dt=L . Vt) - Standard WACC. Fixed dollar debt schedule (L drifts) - Vanilla WACC, and if knon=ka then kn=ka. Changing ratio or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. The gold strip is the second switch: the risk of the interest tax shields . WACC 模型选择器 -- 这门课的钩子。Constant target ratio L(债务 rebalance 到 Dt=L· Vt)→ Standard WACC。 Fixed dollar debt schedule(L 漂移)→ Vanilla WACC,而如果 kn on=ka 则 kh=ka。 Changing ratio 或经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。金色那条带是第二个开关:ITS的风险。
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6. FCFU ↔ $k_s$;FCF ↔ $k_v$;FCFE ↔ $k_e$。[5]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf上面每一行底下都坐着一条规则:折现率必须匹配现金流的风险与时间,以及它被定义的基准。配错了,所提供的公式表就会算出 一个毫无意义的数。把这四对操练到成为条件反射。 Cash flow Pairs with rate Because FCFU - unlevered, no ITS ks (Standard WACC) ITS stripped from BOTH sides FCF - all investors, contains ITS ky (Vanilla WACC) ITS lives in the cash flow FCFE - equity residual ke (FCFE model / DDM) equity cash +> equity rate FCFU + ITS separately ku & kits (APV) operations + financing split ✓ Name the type out loud, then commit 大声说出题型,然后下定决心 In the 15-minute reading time, write the type name beside each question ("recursive", "de-lever beta", "convertible" . . . ). That one label triggers the model, the matched pair and the first three steps from this grid - before the clock on the 180 minutes really starts. 在 15 分钟阅读时间里,在每道题旁写上类型名("recursive”、“de-lever beta"、"convertible" . . . )。那一个标签就触发 了模型、配对组合,以及这张网格里的前三步 -- 在180 分钟的钟真正开始走之前。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR - EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM-CONDITIONS: ONE DOUBLE-SIDED A4 + CASIO FX82 Your bring-in A4 - method & decision logic, not formulas 你带入的 A4 -- 方法与决策逻辑,而非公式 Six zones, a 180-minute triage, and the selector you must draw from memory 六个区域、一份180分钟分诊计划,以及你必须凭记忆画出的选择器 TL;DR. You may bring one double-sided A4 of your own notes and a non-programmable Casio FX82 (the FX-8200 is not permitted); the formula sheet is provided inside the exam (you may ignore the imputation formulae). So do not waste the A4 on formulas you will already be given - fill it with decision logic, worked-step templates and traps. Below is a six-zone layout that mirrors the decoder. TL;DR。你可以带入一张双面 A4 自己的笔记和一台不可编程的 Casio FX82(FX-8200 不允许);公式表在考试中提供(你可以 忽略 imputation 公式)。所以不要把A4 浪费在你已经会被给到的公式上 -- 用决策逻辑、分步模板和陷阱把它填满。下面是 一个映射解码器的六区域版式。 i Honour the exam conditions exactly 严格遵守考试条件 Bring-in (one A4 of your own notes) + a provided formula sheet - this is neither closed nor fully open book. Raw formulas are supplied, so they earn you nothing on the A4. Your edge is knowing which model to use and executing it cleanly under time pressure.[12]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBring-in(一张你自己的 A4笔记)+一张提供的 formula sheet -- 这既不是闭卷也不是完全开卷。原始公式是给好的,所 以它们写在 A4 上不会给你加分。你的优势在于知道该用哪个模型,并在时间压力下干净利落地执行它。 s. 4 The six-zone A4 layout S. 4六区域 A4 版式 Zone What goes in it Why it earns marks 1. The selector Switch 1 (ratio / schedule / changing) - model; Switch 2 (kits = ku vs ka) picks the right model in seconds 2. The 4 matched pairs FCFU:kg, FCF:ky, FCFE:ke, APV ku+kits stops the No. 1 error (wrong pairing) 3. Recursive template the 4-row drill: Vn = 0 - per-year ks - roll back - Vo the flagship type, done fast 4. Beta & rate cues de-lever peer, re-lever to you, ka = rf + CS; name MRP as the missing input the market-data WACC question 5. Multiples & surplus PE = equity; EBIT/EBITDA = enterprise; add surplus cash, then less debt; strip one-offs both sides stops level/leverage mix-ups 6. Replication moves payoff table by state; convertible = bond + call; bootstrap yt; state the trade the hybrid & arbitrage marks AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ! Things that look like formulas but are really TRAPS - put these on the A4 那些看起来像公式实则是 TRAPS 陷阱的东西 -- 把这些放上 A4 - 用目标杠杆,绝不用账面/当前比率。 · Never the yield as ka for risky debt (it overstates it).
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7. 做完 DCF 一定跑 EV→Equity→Per share。[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual
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8. surplus assets 单独估值,现金流别重复算。[15]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfBeta 两步法(L = D/V):去杠杆每个 comparator βu =(1-L)βe → 取平均→在你的 L 上re-lever,βe = βu/(1-L)(只 有投资级时 βd=0)。 · Cost of debt: y = rf + CS, CS = RP + DP; investment-grade y ~ kd; junk y > kd; after-tax ka(1-T). I 债务成本:y= rf + CS,CS=RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 · Traps: de-lever the comparator / re-lever to YOU; consistent rf & market proxy; yield # ka for risky debt. I 陷阱:去杠杆 comparator / re-lever 到你自己;一致的 rf & market proxy;风险债务的 yield ≠ kd。 ● CAPM: ke = rf+β(rM -r+); 只对 系统性 风险定价;SML 斜率=MRP。rf= 长期债券;MRP 澳大利亚~ 6% (说明算术/几何)。 ● Fama-French 加入 SMB(规模)+ HML(价值);大盘成长股→ ke 低于 CAPM;CAPM 在实务中仍占主导。 ● Beta 两步法(L= D/V):对每个可比公司 去杠杆 βu =(1-L)βe →求平均→在你的L 下 再加杠杆,βe = βu/ (1-L)(仅当投资级时 βd=0)。 ● 债务成本:y= rf+ CS, CS= RP+DP;投资级 y ~ kd;垃圾级 y > kd;税后 kg(1-T)。 ● 陷阱:对可比公司去杠杆 /再加杠杆到你自己;ff & 市场代理保持一致;对风险债务而言收益率 ≠ kd。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES - CLASS 6 . MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES WEEK 6 . THE CLEAN-UP CLASS Surplus assets, cash, and the EV - equity bridge 盈余资产、现金,以及EV→股权的桥接 value operations cleanly, then add what the model left out - without double-counting 干净地给经营业务估值,再加上模型遗漏的部分 -- 而不重复计算 TL;DR. Class 6 is the housekeeping that turns a raw enterprise value into a defensible value per share. Three switches run the whole class: (1) is an asset operating or surplus - if surplus, value it separately and strip its cash flow out of FCF; (2) is cash a surplus asset (value debt gross) or negative debt (net it off); (3) does operating risk ku change over time - if so a single constant discount rate is wrong. Get the place of each item right and the bridge falls out. TL;DR。第6 课是把原始企业价值变成一个站得住脚的每股价值的内务整理。三个开关贯穿整课:(1)某项资产是经营性还是盈 余 -- 若是盈余,就单独给它估值并把它的现金流从 FCF 中剥出;(2)现金是盈余资产(债务按毛额计)还是负债务(把它对冲掉); (3)经营风险随时间变化吗 -- 若变化,则单一恒定折现率是错的。把每一项的位置摆对,桥就自然成立。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 6 rarely stands alone - it is the adjustment layer bolted onto a DCF or a multiples question in the 65% written final. Because the formula sheet is provided, no marks ride on remembering a perpetuity formula; marks are won by putting each item in exactly one place: surplus-asset income out of FCF and the asset added in the bridge; cash treated consistently (gross-debt or net-debt, never both); one-offs stripped from target and comparator alike. The signature stem (2025-style Q2) gives you an enterprise value of operations and asks for equity value per share - that is the bridge below. Class 6 很少单独出现 -- 它是 65% 笔试期末考里 螺接在 DCF 或倍数题上的调整层。因为 公式表会提供,所以分数 不靠记住某个永续年金公式;分数是靠把每一项放在 恰好一个位置 赢来的:把盈余资产的收益从 FCF 中剔除、把该资 产在桥接中加回;现金处理保持一致(毛债务 或 净债务,绝不两者都用);一次性项目从 目标和可比公司双方 中剥 离。标志性题干(2025 风格 Q2)给你一个经营企业价值,要求 每股股权价值 -- 那就是下面这条桥。 6. 1 Surplus (non-operating) assets - value them separately 6. 1盈余(非经营)资产 -- 单独给它们估值 A surplus (non-operating) asset is anything the core business does not need to run: idle cash, unused land, a minority stake in an unrelated company, an equity-accounted joint venture. Rule: value each surplus asset on its own and exclude its cash flow from unlevered FCF (FCFU) and FCF - otherwise you count it twice. Whether an asset is "surplus" is business-specific: unused land is surplus to a manufacturer but operating to a property developer. 盈余(非经营)资产是核心业务运转所不需要的任何东西:闲置现金、未使用的土地、对一家无关公司的少数股权、一项权益法核 算的合营。规则:对每项盈余资产单独估值,并把它的现金流从无杠杆 FCF()和 FCF 中排除 -- 否则你会重复计算它。某项资产 是否“盈余”是因业务而异的:对制造商而言闲置土地是盈余,对房地产开发商而言却是经营性的。 EXTENDED ENTERPRISE VALUE Vo = Ver + So = Do + Eo, Vex = U0 + Io ET = Eo - So AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual[16]Source: asksia-cheatsheet-fnce30011.pdfTrap: pricing a coupon bond at a single yield when spot rates differ (use the term structure); sign errors on which side to buy; stating arbitrage without the locked-in profit. 15 . Misc Issues W6 Surplus (non-operating) assets (cash, idle land, unrelated shares): value each separately ; exclude its cash flow from FCF/FCF" (else double-count). Vo = V^ex + So = Do + Eo. Cash = surplus asset, NOT negative debt: value debt gross . Cash is low-risk/liquid, debt isn't; netting assumes equal risk; the ITS are on gross debt. Net-vs- gross moves L & B. One-offs: strip non-recurring items from the firm's AND the comparators' earnings (consistency). Consolidated FCF for groups. Terminal value = going- concern tail (often a growing perpetuity from the last explicit year). Changing k_u -> recursive / simultaneous model. Where value comes from (W9): competitive advantage (sustained excess returns -> +NPV growth), growth options (the value of future opportunities), dilution. A below-fair-value share issue transfers wealth & dilutes both the equity % and the voting control of non-participants; remedy = pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. Issuing at fair value is neutral - don't call all dilution "unfair," and don't confuse equity-% dilution with value dilution. Control premium: the extra a buyer pays for control (board, strategy, synergies) above the listed minority price - lives inside transaction multiples, not stock- market ones; also the link back to W1's takeovers / 20% rule / independent expert reports. your permitted one-page A4 . confirm on the FNCE30011 exam-info sheet . @ 2026 good luck. pick the model first. Spot rates · bootstrap -> P* - > state the trade W7 . AN EQUITY FNCE 30011 Essentials of Corporate Valuation UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE . 3RD-YEAR FINANCE BRING-IN A4 . 65% FINAL Sem 1 2026 . SIDE 1 OF 2 DCF . WACC family . discount rates SIDE 1/2 THE MODEL-SELECTOR & THE DCF ENGINE . How leverage behaves picks the model . Equity DCF + matching . 3 WACC models + when . Recursive template . Discount rates 0 . How to Use This A4 READ FIRST * This sheet IS your permitted bring-in A4 for the 65% final. Rules: one A4 (both sides) of your own notes + a non-programmable Casio FX82 (FX-8200 banned) - no other books or notes. The exam paper itself includes the course formula sheet.
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9. multiples 一定 like-with-like。[7]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfThe subject's hook in one picture. The formula sheet is given - so every DCF question is decided before the formula, at this fork: constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC; changing leverage / operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC. A second switch sets the risk of the interest tax shields. Learn to draw this fork from memory. 这门课的钩子,一图概括。formula sheet 是给好的 -所以每道 DCF 题都在公式之前就在这个分叉点 被决定了:constant target ratio → Standard WACC;fixed debt schedule -> Vanilla WACC;changing leverage / 经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。第二个开关设定 ITS 的风险。学会凭记忆画出这个分叉。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual What the bring-in A4 should hold 带入的 A4 上应该放什么 On your A4 (method, not formulas) Why The WACC model-selector decision tree decides every DCF before you compute The 4 cash-flow / discount- rate matching pairs FCF^U+>k_s, FCFE+>k_e, etc. The EV->equity bridge checklist + surplus assets, - net debt, + shares Worked-step templates + your own traps the moves you fumble under time Do not waste the A4 on raw formulas - the exam prints them. Spend every line on decision logic and the steps you forget under pressure. - 不要把 A4 浪费在原始公式上 -- 考试会印好它们。把每一 行都花在决策逻辑和你在压力下会忘掉的步骤上。 ✓ The strategy this dictates 由此决定的策略 Three habits win the exam. (1) Name the model first. Constant target ratio - Standard WACC; fixed debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with ky = ku when the tax- shield risk = ku); changing leverage or operating risk - Recursive Standard WACC by backward induction. (2) Match the cash flow to the rate - unlevered FCF with kg, equity FCF with ke. (3) Always run the EV-equity bridge and end with a number per share. 三个习惯赢得考试。(1)先点名模型。恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;固定债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(当税盾风险 =时带);变动的杠杆或经营风险 → 用逆向归纳做的 Recursive Standard WACC。(2) 把现金流配给率 -- 无杠杆 FCF 配,股权 FCF 配。 (3)永远跑 EV→股权桥接并以一个每股数字收尾。 ★ The single highest-value habit 单项价值最高的习惯 On every problem, write the five beats: (1) state assumptions and name the model; (2) build & discount the cash flows; (3) bridge EV++equity-per share; (4) sanity-check (right model? leverage story consistent? multiple like-with-like?); (5) state the answer plainly. Short-answer markers reward a clean, labelled walk - and the formula sheet is already on your desk. 对每一道题,写下五拍:(1)陈述假设并点名模型;(2)搭建 并折现现金流;(3)桥接 EV→股权→每股;(4)合理性核 对(模型对吗?杠杆故事一致吗?倍数同类与同类吗?);(5) 明明白白陈述答案。简答打分人奖励一段干净、有标 注的走步 -- 而公式表已经在你的桌上。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual CONTENTS - CONTENTS Three parts, one pipeline 三个部分,一条流水线 Build the engine - price the rates - cross-check & replicate 搭好引擎→ 给折现率定价 → 交叉验证并复制[14]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdf3; build/apply a valuation) Individual take-home exam (online, individual) 15% Mid-semester ★ The exam format - model selection, NOT formula recall 考试形式 -- 模型选择,而非公式默写 One invigilated written paper, and the formula sheet is printed inside it. You will not earn marks for reproducing ks or the CAPM - they are given. You will be handed a firm sketch, forecasts, leverage information and cost-of-capital inputs and asked to name the right model, build the cash flows, discount, and bridge to a per-share value - plus short concept items (why enterprise DCF; Standard vs Vanilla vs Recursive WACC; the interest-tax-shield risk switch; why a multiple must be like-with-like). Questions are short-answer with no algebraic derivations. Walk a full valuation on a fresh firm and you have walked the exam. 一场监考的书面试卷,而公式表就印在它里面。你不会 因复述 或 CAPM 而得分 -- 它们是给定的。你会拿到 一份公司速写、各种预测、杠杆信息和资本成本输入, 并被要求点出正确的模型、搭建现金流、折现,并桥接 到一个每股价值- -外加一些简短的概念项(为什么用 TEIL DCF;Standard vs Vanilla vs Recursive WACC; 利息税盾风险开关;为什么一个倍数必须同类与同类)。 题目是简答型,没有代数推导。在一家新公司上走完一 次完整估值,你就走完了考试。 FIG 0. 1 How does the firm's leverage behave? (pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet) Constant target RATIO L Target DEBT schedule ($ Changing L or operating risk k_u D_t = L x V_t (rebalance each yr) D_t given -> L changes over time L_tor k_u varies year-to-year STANDARD WACC VANILLA WACC RECURSIVE Std WACC k_s = (1-L)k_e + L k_d(1-T] k_w = (1-L]k_e + L k_d V_t = (FCF"U + V_{t+1}) / (1+k_s,t) Mies-Ezzel K_V= K_u (if k_its=k_u) backward induction Second switch -- risk of the interest tax shields (k_its): rebalance to a RATIO -> k_its . k_u ITS as risky as operations (Standard/Vanilla) FIXED debt schedule -> k_its . k_d ITS as risky as the debt (small approx error) the formula sheet is GIVEN -- marks are won by choosing the RIGHT model, not recalling a formula
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10. 看到 convertible / warrant / kinked payoff / arbitrage,就想到 replication。[3]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfAskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 9 回忆清单 -- 第9类 | 三个价值来源:竞争优势(可持续的)、增长期权(未来灵活性)、稀释(分蛋糕)。 · Wealth-transfer rule: Nnew X (Vfair - Pissue) - zero at fair value, positive (to new owners) when under-priced. I 财富转移规则: -- 公允价值时为零,定价过低时为正(给新所有者)。 · Method: cum value per share - add new cash & new shares - ex value per share - per-owner $ change. I 方法:cum 每股价值 →加入新现金 &新股→ ex 每股价值→每个所有者的$ 变化。 · %-dilution (everyone non-participating) # value dilution (below-value issues only). %-稀释(人人未参与)≠ 价值稀释(仅低于价值的发行)。 两个价格=不同公允价值/内部-vs-外部/蓄意转移;输家是未参与的所有者。 · Remedy: pre-emptive right / anti-dilution clause in the constitution. 补救:公司章程里的 pre-emptive right / anti-dilution 条款。 ● 价值的三个来源:竞争优势(持续的 ROIC>ku)、增长期权(未来的灵活性)、稀释(分割饼)。 财富转移规则:Nnew ×(Vfair - Pissue)–– 在公允价值时为零,在定价偏低时为正(流向新股东)。 ● 方法:除权前每股价值→加入新现金 &新股→除权后每股价值→每位股东的 $ 变化。 · %-稀释(每一个不参与认购的人)≠价值稀释(仅限低于价值的发行)。 ● 两个价格= 不同的公允价值/内部人 vs 外部人/蓄意转移;受损方是 不参与认购的 股东。 ● 补救:章程里的优先认购权 / 反稀释条款。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual CLASS 10 . REPLICATION VALUATION BY REPLICATION CLASS 10 . THE HYBRIDS CHAPTER If two assets pay the same, they must cost the same 若两项资产支付相同,则它们必定成本相同 arbitrage & the Law of One Price . convertible = bond + call 套利与 Law of One Price · 可转债 = 债券 + call TL;DR. When a security has a kinked payoff - a convertible, a warrant, a bond-with-warrants - you do not need a fresh discount-rate model. You replicate it: build a portfolio of things you can price (a straight bond + calls/puts + a zero-coupon bond) whose payoff matches the security in every future state, then by the Law of One Price the security must cost exactly what that portfolio costs. The kink is the tell - it always hides an option. TL;DR。当一个证券有带折点的收益 ---- 只可转债、一份认股权证、一只附认股权证的债券 -- 时,你不需要一个全新的折 现率模型。你复制它:构建一个由你能够定价的东西(一只直债+若干 call/put+一只零息债券)组成的组合,使其收益在每一个 未来状态都与该证券吻合,那么根据 Law of One Price,该证券的成本必定恰好等于那个组合的成本。折点就是线索 -- 它总 是藏着一个期权。 ★ What the exam asks here 考试在这里考什么 Class 10 is heavily examined in the 65% final and is the one place the formula sheet does not rescue you - there is no "hybrid formula", only the method. The recurring types: (i) value a convertible / callable-into-shares bond by LOOP (bond leg ± an option leg read off a given grid); (ii) how many bull-spread warrants to issue to raise a target sum; (iii) bond arbitrage from a zero-coupon price schedule - bootstrap spot rates, re-price, and state the trade. Put the cue - decompose - LOOP routine on your bring-in A4, not a formula. Reading-time triage: a kinked payoff or the word convertible / warrant / arbitrage - this chapter. Class 10 在 65% 期末考里 考得很多,而且是公式表 救不了你的唯一地方 -- 这里没有“混合证券公式”,只有 方法。 反复出现的题型:(i)用 LOOP 为可转债/可转股债券估值(债券腿±从给定网格中读出的一条期权腿);(ii)要发行多 少张牛市价差认股权证 才能筹到目标金额;(iii)从零息债券价格表做 债券套利 -- bootstrap 出即期利率、重新定价, 并 说明交易。把 信号→拆解→ LOOP 这套流程放到你可带入的A4 纸上,而非一个公式。阅读时间分诊:一个带折 点的回报,或 convertible / warrant / arbitrage 这几个词→本章。[13]Source: asksia-bible-fnce30011-bilingual.pdfIf the traded price were instead above $1,001. 05, flip it: short the coupon bond, buy the replicating zeros. The marks are in naming the buy/short legs and the locked-in number - never just "an arbitrage exists". 如果交易价格反而高于$1,001. 05,就反过来:卖空附息债券,买入用于复制的零息债券。分数在于点名买入/卖空的各腿以 及锁定的那个数 -- 绝不要只说“存在一个套利”。 ! Single yield # spot rates ¥- yield # spot rates Pricing a coupon bond at one flat yield when the term structure slopes is the classic error - discount each promised cash flow at its own matching spot rate. And never stop at "arbitrage exists": the question "what should you do?" wants the explicit buy / short trade and the riskless profit. 当 期限结构有斜率 时却按一个统一收益率为附息债券定价,是经典的错误 -- 要按每一笔承诺现金流 各自匹配的即期 利率 来折现。而且绝不要停在“存在套利”上:“你应该怎么做?”这个问题要的是明确的 买入/做空交易 以及 无风险利 润。 AskSia Library . FNCE30011 . XXia Bilingual ★ Recall checklist - Class 10 回忆清单 -- 第 10类 · Arbitrage = zero cost, no loss, chance of gain; LOOP = same payoff -> same price - price(X) = price(replicating portfolio). I 套利= 零成本、无亏损、有获利机会;LOOP= 相同 payoff →相同价格 → price(X)= price(复制组合)。 I 例行流程:把 payoff 列表 → 找出折点(= option)→识别 strike、到期日 & 谁持有它→组装各腿→ 定价 & 求和。 · Convertible = straight bond + call: CBo = Bo + Co (issuer-callable -+ -Co). Risk-insensitive: bond leg down, call leg up. I Convertible = straight bond + call:(issuer-callable →)。对风险不敏感:bond 腿下降,call 腿上升。 I Bull-spread warrant = long call(低)+ zero - short call(高);需发行数量 = 募资额÷ warrant 价值。 · Bond arbitrage: bootstrap yt from zeros - re-price at spots - if mispriced, state the buy/short trade + the riskless profit. 债券套利:从 zeros bootstrap → 在 spots 重新定价→若定价错误,说明买入/卖空交易+无风险利润。 ● 套利=零成本、无损失、有获利机会;LOOP =相同回报→相同价格→ price(X)= price(复制组合)。 ● 流程:列出回报表 →找出折点(=期权)→确定行权价、到期日 &谁持有它→组装各条腿→定价并求和。 ● 可转债 =直债+看涨期权:CBo = Bo+Co(发行人可赎回→-Co)。对风险不敏感:债券腿下跌,看涨期权腿上 涨。 · 牛市价差认股权证= 多头看涨(低)+零 一空头看涨(高);要发行的数量=筹资额÷认股权证价值。 ● 债券套利:从零息债券 bootstrap 出 yt → 按即期利率重新定价→如果定价错误,说明买入/做空交易+无风险利 润。 AskSia Library · FNCE30011 · 双语 Bilingual EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR EXAM DECODER . THE MODEL SELECTOR CLASSES 3-4 . THE BRING-IN-A4 CORE The model selector - pick the model BEFORE the formula sheet 模型选择器––在翻公式表之前先选好模型 Two switches decide every DCF question: leverage shape, then ITS risk 两个开关决定每道 DCF 题:杠杆形态,然后是 ITS 风险 TL;DR. The exam hands you the formula sheet, so the marks are not in recalling ks or ky - they are in choosing the right model and pairing the right cash flow with the right rate. Ask two questions, in order. (1) How does leverage behave? A constant target ratio - Standard WACC; a fixed dollar debt schedule - Vanilla WACC (with k, = ku); a changing ratio or changing operating risk ku > Recursive Standard WACC. (2) How risky are the interest tax shields? Rebalance-to-ratio -> kits = ku; a fixed schedule ++ kits = kd. Get those two right and the sheet does the arithmetic. TL;DR。考试把公式表交给你,所以分数不在回忆 或 -- 而在选对模型并把对的现金流与对的率配对。按顺序问两个问题。(1) 杠杆如何变化?一个恒定目标比率→ Standard WACC;一份固定美元债务计划表 → Vanilla WACC(带);一个变动的比率或变 动的经营风险 → Recursive Standard WACC。(2)利息税盾有多大风险?再平衡到比率→;固定计划表→。把这两个弄对, 公式表会做算术。
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二十二、我建议你下一步这样做
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你现在最需要的,不是再泛泛看一遍,而是把这门课变成“可上考场的模板”。
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我可以继续马上帮你做这 3 件事里的任意一个:
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A. 我给你整理一份 FNCE30011 Final 终极复习清单
- 按章节列:
- 必背定义
- 必会公式
- 题型模板
- 高频陷阱
- 按章节列:
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B. 我给你做一份 一张 A4 该怎么写的终极版布局
- 直接按考试可带入页来排版
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C. 我给你做一份 “看到题干关键词 → 立刻选模型”速查表
- 特别适合 final 前一晚背
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你回我一个字母就行:A / B / C
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如果你愿意,我也可以顺手把这门课的这些复习重点帮你记住,之后你一来我就直接按 FNCE30011 的 final 模式带你复习。
Ask Sia for quick explanations, examples, and study support.