IDEA9106 Chap.9 Evaluation and Theory of Change

Evaluation and Theory of Change

Evaluation and Theory of Change frames a decision through evaluation question, output and outcome and causal pathway.

The objective is to define what change should occur, for whom and what evidence would challenge the theory, so the chapter should be read as a chain from problem definition to evidence, option comparison and accountable action.

Start with evaluation question and name the decision owner, affected stakeholders and time horizon.

The same fact can matter differently across those positions, so the opening frame determines which evidence is relevant.

Use output and outcome to explain how the present condition produces an opportunity, cost or risk. A strong mechanism states what changes, for whom and through which organisational, market or institutional process.

Apply causal pathway when comparing options.

Keep criteria distinct, test trade-offs and ask which assumption drives the recommendation. A score or matrix only helps when its criteria are justified by the case.

For the application — define what change should occur, for whom and what evidence would challenge the theory — finish with an actor, action, rationale and review trigger.

This turns analysis into a recommendation while keeping the decision open to new evidence.

Build a decision ledger for Evaluation and Theory of Change. Separate the current condition, the stakeholder affected, the evidence supporting evaluation question, the mechanism represented by output and outcome and the criterion supplied by causal pathway.

If a recommendation cannot point back to one of those entries, it is probably preference dressed as analysis rather than a consequence of the case.

Compare at least two feasible options against the same criteria. State who benefits, who bears cost or risk, what capability implementation requires and what evidence would reveal failure.

This comparison is essential when students need to define what change should occur, for whom and what evidence would challenge the theory, because an attractive option is not yet a defensible choice until its trade-offs are made visible.

Rehearse the IDEA9106 response as a short briefing: one sentence for the decision, two for the evidence and mechanism, one for the alternative and one for the qualified recommendation.

Then expand only the move that needs more support. This protects the argument structure when a report, presentation or timed case imposes a strict word or time limit.

A complete Evaluation and Theory of Change response should make the task visible before the detail: identify what must be decided, define the relevant terms, connect the evidence to output and outcome, and use causal pathway to test the result.

The final sentence should answer the question actually asked rather than merely repeat the topic.

The controlling limit is specific: Positive feedback is not the same as demonstrated outcome or impact.

Keep that limit beside the worked example, because it separates a careful IDEA9106 answer from one that sounds confident but claims more than the task or evidence supports.

For revision, retrieve evaluation question, output and outcome and causal pathway without notes, explain their relationship aloud, then complete a changed version of the application: define what change should occur, for whom and what evidence would challenge the theory.

Record the first point at which your reasoning fails and repair that move before attempting another case.

What this chapter covers

• 01

  evaluation question

• 02

  output and outcome

• 03

  causal pathway

• 04

  Applying evaluation question

• 05

  Limits of output and outcome and causal pathway

Worked example: Evaluation and Theory of Change

Key terms

how might we (HMW)

A How Might We question converts a research insight into an open design challenge broad enough for alternatives but specific enough to guide ideation. In this chapter, use the concept when you define what change should occur, for whom and what evidence would challenge the theory.

double diamond and the reframed double diamond (discover, define, develop, deliver)

The Double Diamond is a design-process model that alternates divergent and convergent work across Discover, Define, Develop and Deliver; reframed versions make iteration and repeated problem framing explicit. In this chapter, use the concept when you define what change should occur, for whom and what evidence would challenge the theory.

reframing / reframe the problem space / reframed project brief

Reframing changes the assumptions, boundaries or point of view used to define a problem, producing a revised brief that opens different design possibilities. In this chapter, use the concept when you define what change should occur, for whom and what evidence would challenge the theory.

Evaluation and Theory of Change FAQ

Assessment move

Reconstruct the relationship among evaluation question, output and outcome and causal pathway; complete the chapter application without notes; then test the result against this limit: Positive feedback is not the same as demonstrated outcome or impact.

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