FASS3999 Chap.3 Theory of Change and Partner Logic
Theory of Change and Partner Logic
Week 3 introduces the first of two tools for analysing partner organisations. A theory of change, in the required reading by Horler and Joffe, is a planning tool that sets out a program's goals and the reasoning that links its activities to the change it seeks, usually drawn as a diagram.
The chapter breaks that logic into an intervention, intended outcomes and long-term impact, and focuses attention on the assumptions that make each step plausible. Organisations rarely publish these assumptions, so you reconstruct them from program pages, reports and panel presentations, labelling each link as stated, implied or inferred.
The chapter then shows how research tests a theory of change: studies can confirm whether a pathway works, and a wider view of contributing causes shows how much one lever can achieve. Finally it offers a one-sentence format that makes two partners easy to compare.
What this chapter covers
- 01
The question of why doing this should lead to that
- 02
Intervention, intended outcomes and long-term impact
- 03
Assumptions as the hinges between steps
- 04
Reconstructing a theory of change from public material
- 05
Testing causal pathways against research and evaluations
- 06
Outcomes with many causes and partners working on one lever
- 07
Writing an if, then, because sentence for each partner
Worked example · free
Reconstructing and testing a mentoring program's logic
- +1Intervention: fortnightly meetings with a trained volunteer mentor over twelve months.
- +1Intended outcomes: stronger confidence, help with practical tasks such as leases and job applications, and one stable adult relationship.
- +1Long-term impact: stable housing, work or study and wellbeing in early adulthood; the assumption is that a trusted relationship is a main missing resource.
- +1Test: look for evaluations of mentoring for care leavers and for evidence on other causes, such as income support and housing supply, that mentoring cannot change.
Key terms
- Intervention
- The concrete action an organisation takes, such as a service, campaign, program or submission.
- Intended Outcome
- A short or medium-term direct effect that an intervention is expected to produce for the people it reaches.
- Long-term Impact
- The broad social change an organisation ultimately hopes its work will contribute to.
- Causal Assumption
- The belief, often unstated, that explains why one step in a program's logic should lead to the next.
- Causal Pathway
- The sequence of links through which an action is expected to produce an outcome.
- Logic Gap
- A missing or unsupported link in a theory of change that weakens the strategy built on it.
Theory of Change and Partner Logic FAQ
What is a theory of change in simple terms?
It is the reasoning that connects what an organisation does to the difference it hopes to make. The useful part for analysis is the set of assumptions explaining why each step should produce the next.
Where do I find a partner's theory of change if it is not published?
Reconstruct it. Use program descriptions, annual reports, evaluations and what the partner says publicly about its purpose, then mark which links are stated by the organisation and which you inferred yourself.
How can research improve a theory-of-change analysis?
Studies of similar programs show whether a pathway tends to work and under what conditions. Wider literature on the outcome reveals other causes, which helps you judge how much one organisation's lever can realistically achieve.
Is it fair to criticise a partner whose goal I agree with?
Yes, if you criticise the logic rather than the goal. Asking whether an assumption is evidenced, and who it leaves out, is fair analysis that a partner could use to improve its work.
Does every arrow in a theory of change need a citation?
Not every arrow, but the ones your argument depends on should rest on evidence. Where no study exists, say so and present the link as an untested assumption rather than an established fact.
Assessment move
Practise the tool on an organisation you already know before the partner panels, such as a sports club, a student society or a charity you have volunteered with. Draw three boxes and two arrows, then write the assumption under each arrow in a full sentence. Repeat this for each partner as soon as you have read its website, and again after the panel, noting what changed.
Keep a three-way label on every link: stated, implied or inferred. When you research, build your search terms from the assumption rather than the organisation, because small organisations are rarely evaluated directly while the mechanism they rely on often has been. Record the setting and population of each study you find, since evidence from another country or decade may not transfer.
Before drafting the Partner Analysis, write the if, then, because sentence for both partners on one line each and circle the words that differ. That circled difference is usually your central comparison. Finally, rehearse explaining one partner's logic aloud in under a minute; if you cannot, the diagram still contains a step you have not understood.
