31247 Chap.9 Conceptual Models, Rich Pictures and Causal Loops
Conceptual Models, Rich Pictures and Causal Loops
From sketch to model
A conceptual model describes a system in words or pictures rather than numbers, built iteratively from the goal of the study and described in spatial, temporal and structural terms.
Rich pictures are the most informal version, drawn together to start a conversation.
The diagram the report is built on
Causal loop diagrams show variables joined by positive or negative links that form reinforcing or balancing loops.
The group report accepts only causal loop diagrams as qualitative models, and its rubric counts loops correctly drawn and explained.
Getting the loops right
Most marks lost on causal loop diagrams come from naming, not drawing.
Each box must hold a variable that can rise or fall, actions belong in solutions rather than in boxes, and every loop needs a label and an explanation of what it does to the problem over time. The tutorial practises these skills on emergency-department crowding and population growth.
What this chapter covers
- 01
What a conceptual model is
- 02
Spatial, temporal and structural dimensions
- 03
Boundaries, variables and parameters
- 04
Input, throughput and output models
- 05
Rich pictures and what to put in them
- 06
Link polarity and loop type
- 07
Five steps for drawing a causal loop diagram
Worked example · free
Sort a counselling service into input, throughput and output
- 1Inputs are the conditions that create demand: students referred by tutors and exam-time stress.
- 1Throughput is what the service does: intake triage and weekly sessions.
- 1Outputs are how students leave: discharged or referred to outside services.
- 1Students who return after discharge are a feedback path from output back to input, adding to demand.
Key terms
- Conceptual Model
- A description of a system in words or pictures rather than numbers, such as a sketch, mental model or flow diagram.
- Rich Picture
- An informal group drawing of a situation, showing structures, processes, people, issues and conflict.
- Reinforcing Loop
- A feedback loop with no negative links or an even count of them, which amplifies change.
- Balancing Loop
- A feedback loop with an odd number of negative links, which pushes back against change.
- Link Polarity
- Whether two linked variables move in the same direction, positive, or opposite directions, negative.
- Parameter
- A characteristic of a system element that stays constant throughout the analysis.
Conceptual Models, Rich Pictures and Causal Loops FAQ
How do I tell a reinforcing loop from a balancing loop?
Count the negative links around the loop. None, or an even count, makes it reinforcing; an odd number makes it balancing. You can check by assuming one variable rises and following the loop round: coming back to a rise means reinforcing, coming back to a fall means balancing.
Can a rich picture be used as the qualitative model in the group report?
No. The Assignment 2 instructions accept causal loop diagrams, and nothing else, as the qualitative model. A rich picture is a good starting point for finding variables, but the report needs the causal loop diagram.
How many loops should my causal loop diagram have?
The rubric’s top band asks for five loops, each reinforcing or balancing, correctly represented and explained in detail. Four loops earn the next band, three the one below.
What should a variable in a causal loop diagram look like?
A noun phrase for something that can increase or decrease, such as active volunteers or waiting time. Avoid actions such as hire more staff and avoid built-in directions such as less waiting, because both make the polarity of every link confusing.
What should a rich picture include?
Its content is largely left to the participants, but the lecture suggests prompting for structures, processes, people, the issues people express, and conflict. Its value lies mostly in the discussion it generates rather than in the finished drawing.
Assessment move
Take your problem and draw it three ways in one week: a rich picture with your team, an input, throughput and output sketch, and a causal loop diagram. Label every loop R or B, check each with the counting rule and with the follow-the-loop test, and write two sentences explaining what each loop does over time. Ask Sia to check one loop’s polarity with you, then do the rest yourself.
Use Vensim for the final version so the file can grow into a stock and flow model.
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