DSS5101 Chap.5 Synergies and Trade-offs Between the Goals
Synergies and Trade-offs Between the Goals
Testing whether the goals pull together
The Agenda asserts that its goals are integrated and indivisible. The Week 2 lecture tests the assertion with a study by Pradhan and colleagues, published in 2017, which set out to provide the first complete quantification of synergies and trade-offs within and across the goals.
A synergy is progress on one goal that favours progress on another; a trade-off is progress on one that hinders another. The study used official indicator data for 227 countries and classified each pair of indicators by the strength of its rank correlation, after aligning signs so that every indicator points towards progress.
What the data showed
Within every goal, synergies outweighed trade-offs.
Between goals, no poverty was synergistic with most other goals, and good health also ranked highly. Trade-offs clustered in decent work and economic growth, industry and infrastructure, responsible consumption and production, and life on land.
Responsible consumption was the goal most often associated with trade-offs, and the conflict between health and responsible consumption was the most widespread at country level, found as the top trade-off in 121 countries.
The lecture explains the pattern through a development path that improves human welfare at the expense of the environment: reducing poverty has so far raised consumption and production at a rate that damages the planet.
Why the result needs careful reading
Three cautions follow from the method. Correlation does not establish causation, and past relationships may not hold in future.
Some goals share indicators, such as disaster deaths under goals 1, 11 and 13, so part of their apparent synergy is built into the framework. And the study could not analyse life below water at all for lack of data. A Nature editorial set for the course adds that integration has been neglected in policy practice, citing the conflict between agricultural expansion for zero hunger and the protection of biodiversity.
What this chapter covers
- 01
Synergy and trade-off defined as helping or hindering
- 02
Official indicator data for 227 countries
- 03
No poverty and good health as synergy leaders
- 04
Responsible consumption as the most conflicted goal
- 05
Why growth-led welfare produces trade-offs
- 06
Three cautions: causality, shared indicators, missing data
Worked example · free
Classifying indicator pairs with the study's thresholds
- 1State the two thresholds.
- 3Classify each pair.
- 2Interpret the unclassified pair.
Key terms
- Synergy
- A relationship in which progress on one goal or indicator favours progress on another, counted in the study as a correlation above +0.6.
- Trade-off
- A relationship in which progress on one goal or indicator hinders progress on another, counted in the study as a correlation below -0.6.
- Rank Correlation
- A measure of how consistently two variables move together in order rather than in exact amount, used because it is less sensitive to outliers.
- Sign Alignment
- Reversing indicators where a decrease is desirable so that every indicator points towards progress before correlations are compared.
- Shared Indicator
- An indicator used under more than one goal, which makes those goals appear to move together whether or not one causes the other.
Synergies and Trade-offs Between the Goals FAQ
Which goals show the most synergies?
No poverty is synergistic with most other goals and appears repeatedly among the strongest pairs, and good health also ranks highly. Within their own indicators, goals such as no poverty, health, education, reduced inequality, responsible consumption and climate action show mostly positive relationships.
Which goals trade off most often?
Decent work and economic growth, industry and infrastructure, responsible consumption and production, and life on land carry high shares of trade-offs. Responsible consumption turns up in conflicts more than any other goal, trading off against ten other goals in the lecture's summary.
Why does responsible consumption conflict with so many goals?
Most progress on welfare goals has come through growth that raises material use. Countries with better health care tend to have larger material footprints, so health and responsible consumption pull apart in the data. The authors attribute this to the prevailing development path, not to a law of nature.
Does a synergy prove that one goal causes progress on another?
No. The study measures correlation between indicator series, and the authors state that correlation does not imply causation. A shared indicator or a common driver such as rising income can produce a synergy without any direct link between the goals.
Why is life below water missing from the analysis?
The study could not analyse it because too little indicator data existed. Its absence from the results is a gap in evidence, not a finding that ocean goals are free of trade-offs.
Assessment move
Keep two lists as you revise: goals that tend to move together and goals that tend to conflict, each with one sentence of mechanism. When you meet a policy case, check which list it falls into and whether a shared indicator could explain the pattern before accepting it as real.
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