LAW4323 Chap.7 Tendency and Coincidence Evidence
Tendency and Coincidence Evidence
Tendency evidence supports an inference about a person's conduct or state of mind. Coincidence evidence argues that similarities make chance explanation improbable. Both require a defined purpose and significant probative value, while prosecution use against an accused adds the section 101 restriction. Notice and purpose-specific scope remain essential.
What this chapter covers
- 01
Tendency purpose
- 02
Coincidence inference
- 03
Significant value
- 04
Notice
- 05
Section 101
- 06
One transaction
Worked example · free
Compare two secure entries
- 4State each inferential route.
- 1Identify distinctive features.
- 1Apply notice and section 101.
Key terms
- Tendency evidence
- Evidence used to establish a relevant tendency.
- Coincidence evidence
- Evidence using similarities against chance.
- Significant probative value
- The Part 3.6 admissibility threshold.
- Notice
- Advance identification of evidence and purpose.
Tendency and Coincidence Evidence FAQ
Must tendency incidents be identical?
No universal identity requirement applies. Similarity, frequency, context and precision of the alleged tendency affect inferential strength in the particular proceeding and its disputed factual setting.
What makes coincidence evidence persuasive?
The number, distinctiveness and combination of shared features must make chance explanation improbable in relation to the fact in issue, not merely look patterned at first glance.
What extra issue arises for prosecution use?
When used against an accused, section 101 imposes a further restriction after significant probative value, subject to the statute's stated exceptions and the identified prosecution use.
Exam move
Revise Part 3.6 with an incident ledger rather than a list of case names. Give each alleged event a row containing conduct, state of mind, time, place, participants, opportunity, distinctive features and competing explanations. For tendency use, write the alleged tendency with enough precision to connect the other conduct to a fact in issue.
Reject labels such as bad, violent or dishonest unless the facts and proposed inference make the category meaningful. For coincidence use, list the similarities relied upon and ask why their number, combination or distinctiveness makes chance explanation improbable. Generic features deserve less weight than an unusual configuration closely connected to identity or method.
Practise classifying the same incidents under both routes, but never blend the reasoning: each use needs its own notice, threshold and conclusion. Add a column for differences. Explain whether a difference undermines the particular inference or merely limits its strength. Do not use a mechanical similarity score.
Work through significant probative value after defining the use, then add section 101 whenever prosecution evidence is used against an accused. Write the statutory comparison accurately and identify the prejudicial reasoning feared, such as punishment for uncharged conduct, emotional response or substitution of character for proof.
Prepare a separate notice checklist recording the evidence, tendency or coincidence relied upon, fact in issue and timing. If responsive evidence is said to explain or contradict a case opened by another party, define the permissible scope rather than assuming complete freedom. Study the one-transaction distinction by drafting alternative purpose sentences.
Connected acts may directly explain an event, reveal intent or complete a narrative, while another argument may depend on a general tendency. The legal classification follows the actual inference, not the number of incidents. During timed problems, state purpose, notice, significant value, section 101, any general discretion and the limited result in that order.
If an authority is used, attach it to the precise issue it resolves rather than presenting a case catalogue. Conclude by telling the fact-finder exactly what reasoning is permitted and what reasoning is forbidden. Review the answer for propensity by stealth: character language, vague pattern claims and the idea that repetition proves guilt without an articulated link.
Finally, construct your own short scenarios with one altered feature at a time. Changing rarity, timing, number of events or access should change the strength analysis. Explaining why is more valuable than memorising a fixed rule about similarity.
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