MKTG6013 Chap.6 International Research and Market Sizing
International Research and Market Sizing
International marketing research must preserve construct meaning across uneven data, language and access. This chapter starts with the decision, reviews secondary and primary evidence, then develops chain-ratio, analogy and longitudinal analogy estimates. Every multiplier, unit and proxy is labelled.
The main lesson is that market potential is an estimate of opportunity, not a promise of sales, and sensitivity reveals which assumption needs better evidence. Comparability is checked through population, geography, period, definition and collection method before sources are combined. Primary research targets gaps that secondary data cannot resolve, while translation aims for conceptual rather than merely literal equivalence.
Chain ratios retain the denominator and unit at each step, separate potential from company conversion and avoid double counting overlapping screens. Analogy requires the reference and target markets to share the mechanism connecting the surrogate to demand. Low, central and high cases make uncertainty visible and direct research toward the assumption most capable of changing the decision.
What this chapter covers
- 01
Research purpose, constructs and decision use
- 02
International comparability and translation
- 03
Secondary evidence quality
- 04
Primary interviews, observation and tests
- 05
Chain-ratio market potential
- 06
Analogy, longitudinal analogy and sensitivity
- 07
Denominator alignment and transparent evidence ledgers
Worked example · free
Estimate a reachable reusable-container segment
- +1Label the base as adults: 2,400,000.
- +1Apply participation and behaviour: 2,400,000 x 0.62 x 0.48 = 714,240.
- +1Apply stated interest: 714,240 x 0.35 = 249,984.
- +1Apply pilot reach: 249,984 x 0.20 = 49,996.8, about 50,000 adults.
- +1Separate conversion: 49,996.8 x 0.08 = 3,999.744, about 4,000 planning sales.
Key terms
- Marketing Research
- Systematic and objective information work designed to improve a marketing decision.
- Construct Equivalence
- The condition that a concept has comparable meaning across languages, groups or markets.
- Secondary Data
- Existing information collected for another purpose and assessed for fit, quality and comparability.
- Primary Research
- New evidence collected for the current decision through interviews, observation, surveys or experiments.
- Chain Ratio
- A market-size estimate created by multiplying a base by successive eligibility and reach proportions.
- Analogy Method
- An estimate that transfers a demand relationship from a defensibly comparable reference market.
- Sensitivity Analysis
- Testing how an estimate changes when uncertain inputs take plausible alternative values.
International Research and Market Sizing FAQ
What is the biggest risk in international research?
A common risk is false comparability: two datasets or translated questions may use the same label but measure different constructs, populations or periods. Check definitions, collection methods and decision fit before combining them.
How does the chain-ratio method work?
Start with a defensible base and multiply successive proportions that define eligibility, behaviour, interest and reach. Keep sources and units visible, avoid double counting and separate market potential from the firm’s later conversion or share assumption.
When is an analogy estimate credible?
It is credible when the reference and target markets share the mechanism linking the surrogate to demand. Similar geography alone is insufficient; compare category maturity, income, access, behaviour and infrastructure, then test sensitivity.
Assessment move
Build every market-size problem in a vertical calculation with one multiplier per line. Write the source concept and unit beside each input, and postpone rounding until the end. After computing, identify the weakest multiplier and calculate a low and high case. For analogy questions, write the relationship being transferred before inserting numbers; this makes a weak surrogate easier to detect.
Practise explaining why interest, reach and conversion are different. For qualitative research, compare literal translation with construct equivalence and propose a local test. In the project, cite each multiplier, label management assumptions and present a range when the evidence cannot support a precise point estimate.
Keep an evidence ledger with population, geography, period, construct, collection method and source owner for every input. Reject combinations with incompatible denominators unless the limitation is explicitly modelled. Rework the same chain ratio with one multiplier removed for overlap and explain the conceptual difference, not only the numerical change.
Build low, central and high cases by varying the least certain inputs while holding stronger observations fixed. For analogy, compare the causal bridge across reference and target markets before using a ratio. Rehearse a short explanation that states formula, units, result, interpretation and boundary in that order. Finish each exercise by naming the research investment most likely to narrow the decision range.
This makes the calculation auditable and ensures precision never substitutes for validity.
Working through International Research and Market Sizing in MKTG6013? Sia is AskSia’s AI Marketing tutor — ask any MKTG6013 International Research and Market Sizing question and get a clear, step-by-step explanation grounded in how MKTG6013 is taught and assessed. Read this chapter free, then take your hardest questions to Sia.
