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LLAW6093B Chap.10 The Financial Crisis, Capital and Resolution

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Chapter 10 of 10 · LLAW6093B

The Financial Crisis, Capital and Resolution

Innovation, stability and failure in one chapter

The third part of the syllabus runs from regulating financial innovation, with securitisation and tokenisation as the case, through prudential regulation and capital to regulating for financial stability, with bank resolution and systemically important institutions as the case.

The background reading on the crisis of 2007 to 2009 connects them, tracing a path from mortgage lending to a global recession and the reforms that followed in the United States.

How the crisis built up

The reading describes low real interest rates and a hunt for returns, lenders who earned fees on loans they then sold into securities, and investors who held those securities with borrowed money.

When house prices turned, securities backed by weak mortgages lost value, holders tried to sell together, and funding markets stopped rolling over short-term debt.

The central difficulty for the authorities was telling firms that were short of cash from firms that had lost their capital.

From emergency lending to rescue

The central bank widened access to its lending, created new facilities and arranged the sale of one investment bank to a larger rival.

Another investment bank had no buyer and too little collateral, and no agency had power to absorb its losses, so it failed and markets froze.

Congress then authorised the Treasury to buy troubled assets and inject capital into banks, a programme the reading reports eventually returned more than it cost.

What the reforms tried to change

The reform statute created a council to watch for systemic risk and bring large firms, including designated non-banks, under central bank supervision.

It set capital floors and asked for capital that rises in booms, capped exposures to single counterparties, and barred banks from proprietary trading and from owning hedge and private equity funds, subject to exceptions. Large firms must also file plans showing how they could fail in an orderly way.

The questions that remain open are the ones the course asks you to argue: whether these tools answer the failures that caused the crisis, and at what cost to other goals.

In this chapter

What this chapter covers

  • 01

    Securitisation and the originate-to-distribute model

  • 02

    Liquidity crisis and fire sales

  • 03

    Emergency facilities and the lender of last resort

  • 04

    Why one bank was sold and another failed

  • 05

    Fiscal rescue and the troubled asset programme

  • 06

    Systemic oversight and designation of non-banks

  • 07

    Capital floors, countercyclical capital and exposure limits

  • 08

    Proprietary trading and living wills

Worked example · free

Judge a resolution plan

Q [8 marks]. AskSia-authored practice. A large banking group files a resolution plan showing it could be wound down in bankruptcy over a weekend. The plan assumes its derivatives counterparties will not terminate contracts and that a buyer will emerge for its deposit-taking arm. Assess whether the plan should be accepted. The marks shown are an AskSia study allocation and are not the University's marking scheme.
The causal chain in the reading.The causal chain in the reading. Each stage made the next more likely; the reversal of house prices from the second half of 2007 turned the chain into a spiral.How a search for yield became a credit squeezeCapital inflowsReach for yieldRisk underpricedLeverage, opaque productsDeleveragingCredit squeezeHousing reversal exposes the securitised debt built on it
The causal chain in the reading. Each stage made the next more likely; the reversal of house prices from the second half of 2007 turned the chain into a spiral.
  • 2Identify what a resolution plan must show.
  • 4Test the plan's key assumptions.
  • 2State the consequence if it is not credible.
A resolution plan must show how the group could be resolved rapidly and in an orderly way without disrupting the system, including how its deposit-taking bank would be protected. This plan rests on two assumptions that the crisis record undermines: counterparties did terminate and demand collateral as firms weakened, and buyers were absent precisely when a large firm failed. Because the plan depends on conditions unlikely to hold in a crisis, it is not credible as filed. Under the reform statute the firm would have to resubmit, could face stricter capital, liquidity or operational requirements, and after two years without an acceptable plan could be required to divest.
Sia tip — Test every resolution plan against the worst weekend in the crisis record; an assumption that failed then should not carry the plan now.
Glossary

Key terms

Securitisation
The pooling of loans such as mortgages and the sale of securities whose payments come from that pool.
Originate-to-Distribute
A lending model in which the lender earns fees by making loans and then sells them on rather than holding them.
Fire Sale
Forced selling that pushes prices below fundamental value, spreading losses to every holder of similar assets.
Proprietary Trading
Trading by a bank as principal for its own short-term profit rather than to serve clients.
Living Will
A resolution plan in which a large financial firm shows how it could be wound down in an orderly way in bankruptcy.
Countercyclical Capital
Capital requirements designed to rise in expansions and fall in contractions, reversing the pattern of earlier risk-sensitive rules.
FAQ

The Financial Crisis, Capital and Resolution FAQ

Why did the authorities rescue one investment bank but let another fail?

In the first case a private buyer was willing to proceed with central bank lending behind it. In the second there was no buyer, the firm lacked collateral the central bank could lend against, and no public body had power to absorb its losses. The failure then froze markets, which later reforms tried to prevent.

What does the ban on proprietary trading prohibit?

It bars banking entities from trading as principal for their own short-term account and from owning or sponsoring hedge funds and private equity funds, subject to exceptions for activities such as underwriting, market making and hedging. The hardest question is telling genuine market making from trading for the bank's own profit.

What happens if a large firm's resolution plan is not credible?

It must revise and resubmit the plan. If it still falls short, it can face stricter capital, liquidity or operational requirements, and if no acceptable plan is produced within two years it can be ordered to divest assets or operations.

Study strategy

Exam move

Draw a timeline of the crisis from the reading on one page and mark, for each event, which regulatory strategy was used and which failure it addressed. Then add the reforms at the end and draw a line from each reform back to the event that prompted it.

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