RISK5002 Risk Analytics
The Complete Exam Bible · T3 2026RISK5002 Overview
- UNSW Sydney
- Term 3 2026
- Postgraduate risk course
- Inspera final exam
RISK5002 Risk Analytics at UNSW Sydney teaches the tools that individuals and organisations use to measure, quantify and analyse risk, from strategy and daily operations to the environment, workplace health and safety, engineering reliability and cyber security. The course is built on two international standards.
- Assessed by Tutorials, weekly forum posts, an appraisal video and an invigilated final
- Hardest step Turning a technique's output into a justified recommendation
- How to prepare Rehearse the past-exam question types flagged on the tutorial sheets
What you get in the full RISK5002 Exam Bible
- 10 chapters, 47 pages — every examinable topic, week by week
- 26 original practice questions, each with a model answer in the Final Exam format
- 10 worked examples, solved the way RISK5002 marks
- 13 computed figures, redrawn from the course’s own numbers
- Exam-morning plan for the Final Exam (40%) — what to revise last, where marks are lost
Free on this page: assessment table, chapter map, one worked example, key terms, FAQ. The rest is in the full exam bible.
How RISK5002 is assessed
| Component | Weight | Format |
|---|---|---|
| Tutorial Participation & Discussion | 5% | Active participation and group presentation of tutorial solutions |
| Formative Assessment (Forum Discussion) | 25% | Weekly original posts and peer responses; the six best of nine questions count |
| Video Assignment | 30% | Five-minute critical appraisal video (25%) plus a written feedback report on a classmate's video (5%) |
| Final Exam | 40% | Centrally invigilated Inspera exam with no generative AI assistance |
The four weights match the UNSW Handbook 2026 record and the Term 3 2026 lecture slides, where the handbook names the components Tutorial Participation and Discussion, Formative Assessment, Assignment and Exam.
What other students are asking about RISK5002
- Where can I find lecture notes or study guides for RISK5002 at UNSW?
- The RISK5002 study guide in AskSia Library covers Risk Analytics in 10 chapters, with the assessment table, a chapter-by-chapter topic map, key terms and a worked example, free to read on this page.
- Is there a final exam in RISK5002, and how much is it worth?
- Yes. In the offering this AskSia Library guide is built from, Final Exam carries 40% of the RISK5002 mark; the full split is Tutorial Participation & Discussion 5%, Formative Assessment (Forum Discussion) 25%, Video Assignment 30%, Final Exam 40%.
- What does RISK5002 cover on planning and running a risk assessment?
- In AskSia Library's RISK5002 guide, the Planning and Running a Risk Assessment chapter explains iEC 31010 structure, planning steps, identification, analysis, evaluation and COSO.
- What does RISK5002 cover on hazop studies and risk identification?
- In AskSia Library's RISK5002 guide, the HAZOP Studies and Risk Identification chapter explains guide words, deviations, causes and consequences, and the ISO identification factors.
- What does RISK5002 cover on risk matrices and tornado diagrams?
- In AskSia Library's RISK5002 guide, the Risk Matrices and Tornado Diagrams chapter explains consequence and likelihood scales, priority rules, limitations and one-at-a-time sensitivity.
Current RISK5002 dates
| Date | Item | Control |
|---|---|---|
| 27 September 2026 | Video topic choice | Enter your chosen review article in the topic sheet by 22:00. |
| 25 October 2026 | First video version | Submit the first version by 22:00; late submissions are not accepted. |
| 1 November 2026 | Peer feedback | Written feedback on one classmate's video closes at 22:00. |
| 11 November 2026 | Final video and transcript | Submit one document with the video link and transcript by 22:00. |
| 20 November 2026 | Week 10 discussion question | Due at 22:00 and worth up to five marks. |
Dates are as published in the Term 3 2026 Moodle course page and video assignment guidelines. Confirm exact deadlines and submission settings in the live LMS.
What RISK5002 covers
The course starts with ISO 31000 and the IEC 31010 toolbox, then works through identification with HAZOP, rating with matrices and tornado diagrams, societal risk with F-N diagrams, scenario methods and the Delphi technique, event and fault trees, cyber risk with simulation, environmental assessment and human reliability.
Risk and the ISO 31000 Framework
Risk as the effect of uncertainty on objectives, principles, framework and processISO 31000:2018 offers a shared method for handling every kind of risk, which any organisation can tailor and apply to decisions at every level.
- The effect of uncertainty on objectives
- Likelihood versus probability
- Why certification is not possible
- Eight principles of effective risk management
- Framework, leadership and commitment
- The iterative risk management process
Planning and Running a Risk Assessment
IEC 31010 structure, planning steps, identification, analysis, evaluation and COSOIEC 31010:2019 is the toolbox that sits behind ISO 31000. Published jointly by the IEC and ISO, it explains how to implement a risk assessment, how to select techniques, how the techniques are categorised in Annex A, and how each technique works under five headings in Annex B.
- IEC 31010 sections and annexes
- Six planning steps before assessment
- Technique families in Table A.3
- Analysis of consequence and likelihood
- Five evaluation outcomes
- COSO 2017 compared with ISO 31000
HAZOP Studies and Risk Identification
Guide words, deviations, causes and consequences, and the ISO identification factorsRisk identification asks what could advance or block an organisation's objectives, and IEC 31010 offers a family of tools for it.
- Identification technique families B1 to B3
- HAZOP steps and design intent
- Guide words and parameters
- From deviation to treatment
- Ten factors for identifying risk
- Describing a technique in IEC structure
Risk Matrices and Tornado Diagrams
Consequence and likelihood scales, priority rules, limitations and one-at-a-time sensitivityA consequence and likelihood matrix ranks risks quickly by placing them on two customised scales and reading a priority and decision rule from the cell.
- Consequence and likelihood scales
- Priority ratings and decision rules
- Symmetric and weighted designs
- Limitations of matrix ratings
- Tornado diagrams and one-at-a-time swings
- Strengths for screening many risks
Risk Maps and F-N Diagrams
Spatial risk maps, societal risk criteria, ALARP regions and the risk aversion lineRisk maps show how hazard likelihood, intensity or expected consequence vary across places, which makes them powerful for planning, insurance and emergency services, but also easy to misread.
- Risk maps: use, inputs and outputs
- Misreading return periods
- F-N axes and criterion lines
- Intolerable, ALARP and acceptable regions
- Solving for a and b
- Societal risk in planning decisions
Scenario Analysis and the Delphi Technique
Short and long horizon scenarios, leading indicators and anonymous expert consensusScenario analysis builds plausible pictures of the future and works through their implications.
- Plausible scenarios and their implications
- Short-term versus long-term horizons
- Outputs and leading indicators
- Delphi steps and anonymity
- Groupthink and the wisdom of crowds
- Delphi for scarce-data estimates
Event Trees and Fault Trees
Forward and backward logic, gate arithmetic, cut sets and choosing a tree methodScenario trees start from one event and branch. Event trees use forward logic from an initiating event through the success or failure of each control, multiplying a frequency by conditional probabilities to give outcome frequencies that sum back to the start.
- Two kinds of scenario tree
- Forward logic and conditional probabilities
- Fault tree symbols and rules
- AND and OR gate arithmetic
- Cut sets and routes to failure
- Choosing between a fault tree and scenarios
Cyber Risk, Privacy Impact and Monte Carlo
ISO questions for cyber risk, privacy impact analysis, simulation and attack testingCyber risk is not named in ISO 31000 or IEC 31010, but the course treats it with the same principles: identify the most valuable digital assets, test leadership commitment and accountability, check that a systematic process links to enterprise risk management, define the cyber risk the organisation will accept, and make communication and consultation work across cyber, legal and operations.
- ISO 31000 questions for cyber risk
- Data protection impact analysis
- Monte Carlo simulation steps
- Simulating loss before and after controls
- Why small simulations mislead
- Red teaming and attack simulation
Environmental and Toxicological Risk
Hazard types, dose response, exposure pathways and risk characterisationToxicological risk assessment estimates risks to people, animals, plants and ecosystems from physical, chemical and biological hazards.
- Physical, chemical and biological hazards
- Problem formulation and susceptible groups
- Dose-response curves and NOEL
- Exposure pathways and site models
- Risk characterisation across pathways
- Strengths and limits of the method
Human Reliability and Human Factors
Task analysis, error probabilities, shaping factors, fishbone diagrams and automationPeople are a source of risk, a variable in how techniques are used, and the readers who interpret results, and both ISO 31000 and IEC 31010 require human, organisational and social factors to be considered explicitly.
- Human factors in ISO 31000 and IEC 31010
- Hierarchical task analysis
- Error keywords and shaping factors
- Adjusting a nominal error rate
- Ishikawa diagrams for root causes
- Automation and the PTE model
ISO 31000 supplies a six-word definition of risk, the effect of uncertainty on objectives, eight principles, a framework anchored in leadership and commitment, and a process in which risk assessment means identification, analysis and evaluation. IEC 31010 supplies the toolbox, describing each technique through its overview, use, inputs, outputs, and strengths and limitations.
The Term 3 2026 lectures move from the standards into specific techniques: HAZOP studies for identifying deviations from design intent, consequence and likelihood matrices and tornado diagrams, risk maps and F-N diagrams for societal risk, scenario analysis and the Delphi technique, event trees and fault trees, data protection impact analysis and Monte Carlo simulation for cyber risk, toxicological assessment for environmental hazards, and human reliability analysis.
Qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative methods sit side by side, so the same question may ask you to design a matrix, compute a top-event probability and then argue which method suits a hospital or a council. Assessment combines tutorial participation, a weekly discussion forum, a five-minute video appraising a review article with a peer feedback report, and a centrally invigilated final exam worth 40%.
This guide works through each taught topic with original worked examples, figures computed from their own numbers, and practice questions modelled on the question types that the tutorial sheets mark as past exam material.
Worked example · free
Rank campervan revenue drivers with a tornado diagram
- +1Base revenue = weeks x 7 x utilisation x vans x daily rate = 20 x 7 x 0.90 x 15 x 160 = $302,400.
- +1Season: 16 weeks gives $241,920 and 24 weeks gives $362,880, a swing of $120,960.
- +1Daily rate: $135 gives $255,150 and $190 gives $359,100, a swing of $103,950; utilisation: 75% gives $252,000 and 100% gives $336,000, a swing of $84,000.
- +1Rank by swing: season length on top, then daily rate, then utilisation, and target the controllable factors.
Key terms
- Risk
- The effect of uncertainty on objectives, where the effect can be positive, negative or both.
- Likelihood
- The chance of something happening, described in words, as a frequency or as a probability.
- Risk assessment
- The combined steps of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk.
- Risk criteria
- Terms of reference against which the significance of a risk is evaluated.
- Control
- A measure that maintains or modifies risk.
- HAZOP study
- A structured examination that applies guide words to find deviations from design intent.
- Risk matrix
- A grid that rates risks by consequence and likelihood to show their significance.
- Tornado diagram
- A bar chart ranking factors by how far each moves an outcome between its low and high values.
- F-N diagram
- A log-log plot of cumulative fatality frequency against the number of fatalities.
- ALARP region
- The band between intolerable and broadly acceptable risk where reduction must be reasonably practicable.
- Delphi technique
- An anonymous, iterative questionnaire method for building expert consensus.
- Cut set
- A combination of basic events sufficient to cause the top event of a fault tree.
- Monte Carlo simulation
- A method that samples input distributions repeatedly to build the distribution of an output.
RISK5002 FAQ
How is the course assessed?
Four components count: tutorial participation and discussion at 5%, the forum discussion at 25%, the video assignment at 30% and a final exam at 40%. The video mark splits into 25% for the final video and 5% for written feedback on a classmate's video. The weights match the 2026 handbook record and the Term 3 lecture slides.
What kind of final exam should I expect?
The Week 5 lecture describes a centrally invigilated Inspera exam worth 40%, sat without generative AI assistance. Past questions printed on the tutorial sheets include describing a technique in the IEC 31010 structure, designing a risk matrix, interpreting an F-N figure, calculating scenario revenues and a fault tree, and choosing between methods. Confirm the date, length and permitted materials in course announcements.
Which topics are examinable?
The lecture slides define examinable content as the lectures, the tutorials and the mandatory readings, with no prescribed textbook. That covers ISO 31000, IEC 31010, HAZOP, matrices, maps, F-N diagrams, scenario methods, trees, cyber risk, environmental assessment and human reliability, plus the scheduled topics on extremes and on risk perception.
How does the forum discussion earn marks?
Each week except Week 6 you write an original post of 200 to 250 words and a response of 100 to 200 words before the deadline. A question earns up to four marks, or five in Week 10, and your six best questions are summed. The rubric rewards content, critical thinking, contribution to peers and clear communication.
What does the video assignment involve?
You record a video of no more than five minutes that critically appraises a review article from the course list, submit a first version, give written feedback to one classmate, then submit a final version with a transcript. The final video is marked on the summary of the article, the appraisal and recommended improvements, and the presentation itself.
Do I need to memorise the ISO and IEC wording?
You should know the core definitions precisely, because answers are judged against the standards as the course presents them. Learn the definition of risk with its notes, the eight principles, the stages of the process, and the five headings IEC 31010 uses for every technique. Precise wording also makes comparisons with other frameworks such as COSO easier to argue.
Questions students ask in each RISK5002 chapter
- Can an organisation be certified to ISO 31000?
- No. ISO 31000 offers guidelines rather than requirements, so there is nothing to audit against for certification. Organisations use it as a starting point when they design a risk framework, or as a benchmark when they review the one they already run. Chapter 01 · Risk and the ISO 31000 Framework
- What are the six steps for planning a risk assessment?
- IEC 31010 Section 6.1 asks you to define the purpose and scope, understand the context, engage stakeholders, define the objectives of the system assessed, consider human, organisational and social factors, and review the criteria for decisions before the assessment begins. Chapter 02 · Planning and Running a Risk Assessment
- What is a HAZOP study used for?
- It examines a process, procedure or system, at the design stage or in operation, to find deviations from its design intent and to trace their causes and consequences. It began in chemical processing and now extends to manufacturing, vehicles and human behaviour. Chapter 03 · HAZOP Studies and Risk Identification
- What makes a risk matrix answer complete?
- Define a consequence scale tied to objectives, a likelihood scale suited to the risks, the priority rating or decision rule for each cell, and then show one risk being placed and actioned. A coloured grid without written scales leaves most of the marks unearned. Chapter 04 · Risk Matrices and Tornado Diagrams
- What do the axes of an F-N diagram show?
- The horizontal axis shows the cumulative number of fatalities N and the vertical axis the frequency F of events causing N or more fatalities. Both axes are logarithmic so that rare, large accidents and frequent, small ones fit on one chart. Chapter 05 · Risk Maps and F-N Diagrams
- When should I use long-term scenario analysis?
- Use it when an organisation must prepare for major shifts in technology, preferences or social attitudes over decades. Probabilities cannot be attached to such futures, but their consequences can be explored to build resilience and to choose indicators worth monitoring. Chapter 06 · Scenario Analysis and the Delphi Technique
- When do I multiply and when do I add in a fault tree?
- Multiply probabilities at AND gates when the input events are independent, and add probabilities at OR gates when the inputs are mutually exclusive. Two frequencies must never be multiplied together, and a probability must never be added to a frequency. Chapter 07 · Event Trees and Fault Trees
- How does ISO 31000 apply to cyber risk?
- Treat cyber risk like any other risk: link it to objectives and key digital assets, secure board commitment and clear accountability, integrate it into the enterprise process, set criteria for acceptable cyber risk, and make communication and consultation bring cyber, legal and operations experts together with risk owners. Chapter 08 · Cyber Risk, Privacy Impact and Monte Carlo
- What are the five steps of an environmental risk assessment?
- Problem formulation sets the purpose, target population and regulatory context; hazard identification finds the sources of harm; dose-response assessment relates exposure to effect; exposure assessment estimates the dose actually received through each pathway; risk characterisation combines all of this into the likelihood of harm. Chapter 09 · Environmental and Toxicological Risk
- How does human reliability analysis estimate an error probability?
- It starts from a nominal error rate for the type of task and applies multipliers for behavioural or environmental factors, such as fatigue or time pressure, that raise or lower the probability of failure. The result can feed a fault tree or other logic model. Chapter 10 · Human Reliability and Human Factors
How to study for the exam
Start each week by redrawing the chapter figure from memory, because each figure carries the structure of a technique: the ISO architecture, the stage map of IEC 31010, the HAZOP chain, the matrix, the F-N criterion, the trees and the simulation output. Then learn every technique under the five IEC headings so that a describe question turns into a fill-the-boxes task.
For calculations, practise until the formula and its conventions are automatic: one factor at a time for tornado diagrams, multiply at AND gates and add at OR gates, never multiply two frequencies, and solve two anchor points for a and b in an F-N criterion. Finish every practice answer with a recommendation tied to the objective, since tutorial solutions consistently end that way.
In the last fortnight, work the mixed drill under time, spending roughly a minute per mark, and revise the scheduled lectures on extremes and on risk perception from your own notes and the mandatory readings.
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